Tens of millions of people are expected to travel to family gatherings or the Christmas winter holidays, despite requests from public health experts who fear the outcome could be another wave in COVID-19 cases.
In the US, the AAA predicts that approximately 85 million people will travel between December 23 and January 3, most by car. If true, it would be a drop of almost a third from a year ago, but still a massive movement of people in the midst of a pandemic.
Jordan Ford, 24, who was laid off as a Disneyland guest worker in March, said he plans to visit both his and his boyfriend’s families in Virginia and Arkansas for Christmas.
“It’s pretty safe – everyone wears a mask, cleans the cabin well,” said Ford, who has traveled almost weekly in recent months from his home in Anaheim, California, and is frequently tested. “After going through the first trip since the pandemic started, I think you’ll feel comfortable no matter what.”
Experts worry that Christmas and New Year’s Eve will turn into super-widespread events, as many people drop their guard – either because of pandemic fatigue or because of the hopeful news that vaccines are being distributed.
“At the beginning of the pandemic, people didn’t travel because they didn’t know what was to come,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco, “but there’s a feeling now that,” If a I receive, it will be easy, it’s like a cold “. “
The seven-day average of recently reported infections in the United States rose from about 176,000 a day just before Thanksgiving to over 215,000 a day. It is too early to calculate how much of this increase is due to travel and meetings over Thanksgiving, but experts believe they are a factor.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention states that “postponing travel and staying home is the best way to protect yourself and others from COVID-19.” People who insist on traveling should consider testing the virus before and after the trip and limit non-essential activities for seven days after the trip with a negative test result and 10 days if not tested.
Other countries imposed restrictions before the holidays. Last month, England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland agreed to allow a maximum of three households to mix between 23 and 27 December, regardless of existing local restrictions.
The German ADAC car association says holiday traffic will be drastically reduced. The reasons include not only the government’s caution and urge to avoid personal contact, but also the simple fact that many traditional destinations, from the country’s charming Christmas markets to alpine ski resorts, have been ordered closed.
The Christmas markets, which normally attract large crowds to downtown mulled wine cups, have been canceled; a blockade imposed on December 9 closed retail considered non-essential.
Meanwhile, the usual motorway pilgrimage to the ski slopes, which usually starts on December 26, will be largely missed since France, Germany and Italy ordered the closure of the ski resorts. The borders are open, but with significant limitations, such as quarantine requirements.
In Latin America, some countries have imposed some restrictions to try to prevent people from traveling or meeting during the holidays, but others have only advised people to practice social distance and skip parties.
Panama has some of the strictest measures, including an extinguishment until January 4 and a ban on leaving home in total between December 25 and 28 and from January 1 to 4, unless it is a matter of essential activities, such as buying food or medicine. Peru, one of the worst-hit countries in the region, has banned the use of private cars on Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Eve in hopes of discouraging people from traveling.
In the US, Rachel Watterson has delayed her New Year’s Eve wedding because her fiancée’s family cannot travel to the United States from their home in Germany. Instead, the couple intends to flee and will fly from their home in Chicago to Hawaii with their parents, her brother and a friend. They chose Hawaii because of requirements that include coronavirus testing before arrival and a quick test at the airport.
“I felt this was one of the few safe choices we could make if we traveled,” Watterson said.
Tim Brooks, a 37-year-old engineer from Long Beach, California, canceled a trip to Grand Cayman due to a ban on international visitors, then canceled a Christmas visit to his parents in North Carolina, while infections grew in California and across the country.
“If it was just us, it wouldn’t be so bad, but we have older parents and we’re trying to keep them safe,” Brooks said.
Airports and planes will be much less crowded this year in what is normally a high travel season. By December, air travel to the United States had dropped by 67% from last year. If Thanksgiving is a clue, the number of passengers will increase in the rest of the month, but airlines warn that bookings have slowed since the last increase in COVID-19 cases.
The top four airlines in the country now show December and January programs, which are between 33% and 46% lower than a year earlier, according to Airline Data Inc.
Last week, the average flight to the US was only 49% full, compared to more than 80% full a year ago, according to the Airlines for America trade group.
The short-term outlook remains bleak for other travel-related businesses, including those based on winter tourism.
In the ski country of Vermont, Trapp Family Lodge in Stowe is usually sold out during the Christmas week, but only half of the 96 rooms have been booked by last week. It was a similar story at the nearby Lodge at Spruce Peak. The operators of both lodges accused the travel restrictions, especially the quarantine requirements that are triggered by the crossing of state lines.
“It’s frustrating that your business is practically barred from doing your job and not being able to support your employees or the community,” said Sam von Trapp, executive vice president of the family lodge. “At the same time, we understand that there is a very good intention behind all these restrictions.”
Cruise ships often order their highest prices at Christmas and other holidays, when children do not leave school, but few ships sail this season. Carnival, Royal Caribbean, Norwegian and Disney canceled all US navigation until February 28. Travel to other parts of the world has been largely delayed.
Florida, which relies heavily on winter tourism, is also very successful. The two-week period around Christmas is normally the busiest time of year for Walt Disney World in Orlando, says Len Testa, president of TouringPlans.com, which forecasts participation in the park. This year, Magic Kingdom has limited the number of park participants to 35%, so Testa is only expecting around 32,000 people in those days.
The test also expects the crowd level to be lower than usual from January to March, with many visitors rescheduling their travels sooner or later.
“Many families will postpone their spring trips until they are vaccinated,” he said.
Country Kelley had planned to drive seven hours from her home in Milligan, Florida, to Orange City, Florida, to visit her mother and stepfather at Christmas. But Kelley’s wife was recently operated on and spent a day in a hospital where there was a risk of coronavirus exposure, so they stopped traveling.
“I was literally planning this in February,” Kelley said. “It’s a blow.”
Theresa Medina, a 55-year-old pensioner from South Boston, is still deciding whether she and her husband will visit her mother in the Dominican Republic this winter. She is 80% sure they will and is already packing a box to be shipped before they arrive. However, the couple intends to talk to her husband’s doctor in January.
If they go, Medina said they will receive coronavirus tests and wear protective equipment, including face shields and masks.
“We can show nonsense on the plane, but precautions are precautions,” she said.
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Lisa Rathke of Montpelier, Vermont, Wilson Ring of Stowe, Vermont and David McHugh of Frankfurt, Germany, contributed to this report.
David Koenig can be contacted at www.twitter.com/airlinewriter
Dee-Ann Durbin can be accessed at www.twitter.com/deeanndurbin_ap