As the Christmas holidays cease and preparations for New Year’s Eve begin, new restrictions have come into effect in Massachusetts, aimed at reducing a further increase in holiday-related COVID-19 cases.
There are major concerns that it will happen again after the “festive end-of-year period,” according to Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health.
“I’m very, very worried that in the next few weeks we will see a big new growth, in addition to a new growth of infections,” he told NBC10 Boston.
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But when would the evidence of this wave probably appear? Thanksgiving, which inspired the new restrictions, can make sense.
“There’s no doubt that the informal gatherings that took place … around Thanksgiving Day had a big impact on test rates and a big impact on our hospitalizations,” Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker told a press conference a week before Christmas. “Thanksgiving has given us back.”
An increase in the number of cases followed the holidays in Massachusetts – despite the reported decrease in the number of trips around Thanksgiving Day, compared to a regular year. Just not right away.
In the first days following Thursday, November 26, the number of cases remained relatively equal. On November 27, the day after Thanksgiving, Massachusetts recorded an average of about 2,400 new confirmed cases of coronavirus per day, according to figures from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health.
Medical experts across the country and here in Massachusetts are increasingly concerned that we may soon see a post-Thanksgiving increase in the number of COVID cases, creating an increase during an increase.
The increase took place the following week, as the average daily cases increased drastically. As of Monday, November 30, newly reported cases increased by 10% or more for four consecutive days, culminating in a 20% jump from December 2 to December 3. By December 4, the average number of cases reported each day had reached 4,300, almost double the number reported the day after Thanksgiving.
Meanwhile, the average positivity rate of the COVID-19 test in the state started to rise even earlier. After a level between 3% and 3.3% for two weeks before Thanksgiving, the number had already started to rise on November 24th. But 10 days later, on December 4, the average rate reached 6% for the first time since June 1.
Urging the Bay Staters to give up the holiday season, Baker said earlier this month that “we really can’t be the kind of consequential Thanksgiving event in Massachusetts.”
And the governor called for post-Thanksgiving growth when he announced the new set of rules on Tuesday.
He said that, seven days after Thanksgiving, “I saw a big swelling in positive cases.” Hospital acute care beds went from 67% occupied during the holidays to a peak of 83% occupied by December 15, about three weeks after Thanksgiving.
Gov. Charlie Baker is announcing new restrictions on Mass Massage residents to prevent a further increase in coronavirus, including reducing capacity for most industries to 25 percent and reducing indoor gatherings to a maximum of 10 people.
The new rules, which began on Saturday and are expected to last at least two weeks, have reduced occupancy to 25% for a wide range of companies, including restaurants, places of worship, fitness centers and retail.
Indoor meetings and events are limited to only 10 people, while any outdoor gatherings and events cannot have more than 25 people. Workers and staff are not included in the event occupancy number, but the limits apply to private homes as well as event venues and public spaces.
Baker had expected this round of restrictions to begin until after Christmas to allow religious holidays to continue, including many Christians to physically attend the traditional Mass. He hopes people will continue to celebrate safely, he said.
If a post-Christmas increase is similar to that after Thanksgiving, a sharp increase in cases may begin on Monday or Tuesday.
Gov. Charlie Baker suggested there may be more restrictions to minimize the impact of another significant increase, while he asked residents for a week of Christmas, asking them to stay home for the holidays.
But the New Year is also part of the equation, as the new restrictions are also targeted by that holiday and the week between it and Christmas, when many schools are out of the meeting and families traditionally visit, Baker said.
Jha said the growth is expected to be evident from January 4 or 5, a few days after the end of the holiday week. He said it could take five to seven days for the surges to become apparent.
“It takes a little time – for people to get infected, to develop symptoms, to be tested and for that data to be reported,” Jha said.
No new growth may arrive in Massachusetts, but travel suggests people were visiting family and holiday friends, despite experts and officials warning against them.
While the airports seemed more empty than usual around the holidays, a lot of people continued to travel despite the recommendations.
The lines were seen Monday morning at ticket booths at Boston Logan International Airport, which saw a sharp drop in pandemic traffic, and the U.S. Transportation Security Administration reported that 1.3 million people passed through checkpoints on Sunday. control, mostly in a single day in March.
“What he tells me is that a lot of people are tired of staying home and I understand that,” Jha said, adding, “The problem is that we are in the midst of the worst phase of the pandemic. “