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Charlie CremeESPN.com
In a women’s college basketball season of 2020-21, with so much uncertainty, the first 16 seeds of the NCAA selection committee on Monday did not contain real shocks or scratches.
But I learned a lot about what the team selection and ranking process for Monday’s NCAA women’s tournament might look like in a selection month.
From the way the NET rankings were used to the reason why Baylor and NC State were probably sown lower than expected, here are the biggest offers from Monday’s list of the top 16 seeds.
NET rankings were not evangelical
The NET (NCAA Assessment Tool) is the new measurement system that the committee uses as the basis for its selection process. It replaces RPI and adds elements of offensive and defensive efficiency to a results-based formula, providing a more complete picture of a team’s ability.
However, Monday’s top 16s showed that the committee will not be more disadvantaged in making decisions to the NET than to the RPI.
Texas A&M is the best example. Despite being 19-1 overall and 9-0 against the top 50 NET teams, Aggies are 13th in the NET. But the committee ranked Texas A&M fifth overall. The committee did not leave a single criterion for dictating Aggies’ assessment.
It also works in the opposite direction. Indiana ranks ninth in the NET, but only 15th on the committee’s board. The four losses of the Hoosiers seemed to be more of a factor than NET.
Slight surprises: Baylor as a seed no. 3, NC States as a no. 2
NC State was designed as a seed no. 1 in Bracketology for women for all but one week in this calendar year. Baylor was a seed no. 2 throughout the entire interval. In Monday’s disclosure, NC State ranked 6th overall (No. 2 seed), and Baylor was No. 10 overall (No. 3 seed).
None of these spots are blatant, but it is surprising. Baylor is one of the nation’s best defensive teams, is the leader of the Big 12 conference and has dominated since losing to Iowa in mid-January, which came immediately after a COVID-19 break. Another example of the fact that NET is only part of a team’s story, Lady Bears is the fourth in NET. The surprising part is that Baylor is a team that could have participated in the conversation for a number 1 more than a number 3.
The NC State resume might be the hardest to assess. Like Baylor, Wolfpack lost two games. But one was without their best player, Elissa Cunane. They also won two seeds no. 1 of the committee – South Carolina and Louisville. This would usually indicate that a seed no. 1 would also be in the books for Wolfpack. Instead, the committee was led by UConn, South Carolina, Stanford, Louisville and Texas A&M.
“The power of Baylor’s program [rated 96th] and two losses, one outside the NET top 25 (Iowa state), were probably the biggest factors in their placement, “said NCAA Selection Committee Chair Nina King. NC state losses were also above the NET top 25 “.
Losses – both in quantity and quality – were an important factor in how both teams were placed. The exception – and there are always some, because 14 different criteria are taken into account in the selection process – is Stanford. The cardinal also has two losses, one of which came out of the NET 50 (Colorado) standings, but Stanford was still No. 1. This is a case where NET could have helped a team. Stanford is the No. 1 in the NET, which weighs more in road games than home games. The well-traveled cardinal – displaced for nine weeks due to the COVID-19 protocols in Santa Clara County, has played 13 road games this season.
Five SEC teams out of the top 16
The SEC led the way with five teams – South Carolina (No. 2), Texas A&M (No. 5), Georgia (No. 12), Tennessee (No. 13) and Kentucky (No. 16) – on Monday reveal. While I only had three SEC teams in the last 16 places, Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee were 17-19 on my list. So it’s no surprise.
By any calculation available, the SEC was the best conference in the country this season, with eight teams in the top 36 of the NET. Getting five teams in this top-16 reveal reflects the data and what we witnessed. Interestingly, the Razorbacks, the SEC team with the most notable pair of non-conference wins (Baylor and UConn), were not one of the five. This could be another illustration of how good the conference was.
The SEC also has eight teams in Monday’s pre-disclosure version of Bracketology and all eight are comfortable on the field. Florida and Miss Ole could add to that total with a big end-of-season boost. But more SEC teams in the 64 teams would probably mean fewer in the top 16. Any run for the Gators and Rebels would only come with victories over Georgia, Kentucky, Arkansas and Texas A&M.
The long breaks of COVID-19 seemed to hurt Michigan and South Florida
Michigan, Rutgers and South Florida were ranked in the top 16 of the NET, but not on the committee list on Monday. The Wolverines, Scarlet Knights and Bulls also had long breaks related to COVID-19 in their seasons and did not play as many games as most teams.
Rutgers’ three losses take the Scarlet Knights away from the top 16, but Michigan and South Florida should have been in the race. By Sunday, they were both 11-1 and included in my last top 16. In fact, the Wolverines were number 3.
But one of the unknowns that goes into this revelation was how the committee would look at teams that didn’t play as much. Now we have our answer: playing fewer games was a significant negative for the CV.
“We looked at Michigan, but in the end we felt that their work didn’t justify a top 16,” King said. “It’s difficult to measure a team’s full capabilities when they haven’t played as much.”
This is a significant indication of how the committee will evaluate the teams for the rest of the field in March. Any significant break at this time of the season now seems to hurt the bubble teams fighting for a place in the field or others fighting for superior seeds.
It could also be a sign that teams with a large number of games postponed for rescheduling – Michigan has nine, and Rutgers and South Florida have eight each – might want to try to play as many of these games as possible.