A health worker is preparing a dose of Moderna Covid-19 vaccine in Secaucus, New Jersey, on February 28th.
Photographer: Johnny Milano / Bloomberg
Photographer: Johnny Milano / Bloomberg
US officials and public health experts are again raising alarms about the recurrence of Covid-19 cases in some regions and are particularly concerned about the role of variants in states, including Michigan and New Jersey.
Developments could augur a much-feared possibility: that another wave could arise even as states drop the vaccine eligibility criteria, trying to get gunfire as soon as possible.
In Michigan and Minnesota, infections are growing rapidly, and new hospitalizations of confirmed or suspected Covid cases are up about 70 percent and 32 percent, respectively, from recent lows, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
The pace of daily hospitalizations at Covid-19 Hospital, meanwhile, stopped slipping in New York and New Jersey – despite the vaccination campaign – and began to grow inches higher.
The four states vaccinated between 19% and 21% of their populations, according to the US in general, according to the Bloomberg vaccine.
Another major focus could reduce the benefits of immunization even on a large scale in the United States, said Nicholas Reich, an associate professor at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, who works with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to better predict the trajectory of the virus.
Big museum
These concerns underscore the high stakes of the vaccination campaign and wine, as many states have lifted restrictions after a prolonged, deadly rise last fall and winter. In addition to the faster-spreading variants, a combination of weight loss rules and pandemic fatigue are likely contributing factors, while events such as the spring break could have consequences in the coming weeks.
“We are on the last immediate line, the last lap of this stage of the race and it seems that, in some places, the options are only in advance, only a little. But it’s so close, “Reich said. “Four more weeks and I’m not sure they can continue.”
The CDC has named five variants as “variants of concern”: strain B.1.1.7 in the United Kingdom; P.1, from Brazil; B.1.351 from South Africa, as well as B.1.427 and B.1.429, both from California. Most are more transmissible and can prevent how well drugs known as monoclonal antibodies neutralize the virus. B.1.1.7 also likely increases the severity of the disease, according to the CDC.
Last week, the US added an average of about 55,000 new cases a day, about a fifth of the levels in the first week of January, although the number of confirmed infections increased compared to the previous week. CDC Director Rochelle Walensky highlighted the slight increase at a briefing on Monday and said the Northeast and Upper Midwest are beginning to see more significant growth.
People are waiting after they were vaccinated in Eagan, Minnesota, on March 5.
Photographer: Anthony Souffle / Star Tribune / AP
Meanwhile, hospitalizations are being paid for nationally, which is worrying because hospitalizations have steadily declined in January and February, she said. Deaths in Covid are still declining, but the pace of that decline has slowed in the past week, according to Walensky.
The latest numbers should “serve as a warning to the American people,” Walensky said. “Continuous relaxation of preventive measures while cases are still high and while variants are spreading rapidly around the world United States, is a serious threat to the progress we have made as a nation. ”
The CDC warns of the possible “avoidable overvoltage” of Covid-19
The revival in Michigan began in the ski areas before it spread more widely, said David Rubin, physician and director of PolicyLab at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, which modeled the spread of Covid-19.
“It simply came to our notice then. It’s more like Europe, “Rubin said. “If this can happen in Michigan, I see no reason why this can’t happen in Illinois, which is just a few weeks ago, and in the New York metropolitan area.”
In New York, senior health adviser Jay Varma said in a briefing Monday that several infectious variants contribute to a plateau in cases and that officials were “very concerned” about them.
Variants appear
The data suggest that B.1.1.7 is at least one of the culprits. In Michigan, the fastest-growing variant, which appeared in early February, is probably 55% of all cases, according to data provided by test company Helix. No one is checking enough variants to fully understand their prevalence, but Helix tested the failure of the S gene target in Covid-19 positive samples, which he says is a key feature of the variant first identified in the UK.
B.1.1.7 in Michigan
Percentage of samples with the key characteristic of variant B.1.1.7
Source: Helix Covid-19 surveillance dashboard
The spread of more contagious variants such as B.1.1.7 has led to the recent rise of Michigan in the Covid cases, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said in a briefing Friday. At the event, Joneigh Khaldun, the state’s chief medical executive and deputy chief health director at the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services, said confirmed infections had risen 77 percent since February and warned that the state “could potentially the beginning of another wave. ”
Lynn Sutfin, a public information officer for the department, said it was difficult to assess the Helix data because the company had not been in direct contact.
“At this time, we do not have sufficient evidence to determine whether B.1.1.7 is the dominant option in our state and we will need more scientific evidence to make this determination,” Sutfin said in a response to questions from e-mail.
New Jersey State Health Committee Judith Persichilli also downplayed a Trenton virus update on Monday that there were 400 reports of CDC concerns in the state, the vast majority being B.1.1. 7. variant, but added that “we have no variants considered to have major consequences”.
“Multiple factors”
Variations are one of the “multiple factors at play,” said Adam MacNeil, a CDC epidemiologist, adding that previous increases in the United States were not necessarily associated with new strains. He said that while B.1.1.7 has become predominant, there have been regional variations, including another variant known as B.1.526 taking off in the New York area and the prevalence of two California variants in the state.
Two options that the agency has been most concerned about avoiding the vaccine’s effectiveness – B.1.351 and P.1 – remain rare in the United States, which is a good sign, MacNeil said.
A continuing mystery in recent months has been why, despite the fact that the variants have been confirmed in the US, states do not necessarily see cases and hospitalizations increase to the same degree.
Some experts predicted that Florida could be among the first states to slip after B.1.1.7 became dominant there, but this did not materialize in the case and in the number of hospitalizations. Moreover, the percentage of alleged B.1.1.7 cases no longer increases at the exponential rate it had previously had, according to Helix data: it reached 50% B.1.1.7 and then leveled essentially.
Another concern is that Americans are clearly beginning to relax their behavior. Last week, U.S. retail and recreation traffic was about 10 percent below the pre-pandemic reference level, after falling about 50 percent during the first blockade, according to Google Community Mobility Reports. Workplace traffic, which collapsed by half, has returned up to 26% below the initial value.
Between spring fever and spring break, a recurrence may be inevitable. But the United States also has advantages now that it did not have the end of last year, including warmer weather and vaccines, Rubin of PolicyLab said.
“The question is what will be the amplitude of that swelling,” Rubin said. “I think we need to attack again.”
– With the assistance of Shelly Banjo, Elise Young and David Welch
(Updates with comments from Whitmer and the CDC epidemiologist)