JERUSALEM (Reuters) – The rapid launch of vaccination in Israel has made it the largest real study of Pfizer Inc.’s COVID-19 vaccine. The results are leaking and promising.
More than half of eligible Israelis – about 3.5 million people – have now been fully or partially vaccinated. Older and at-risk groups, the first to be inoculated, show a dramatic decrease in disease.
Among the first fully vaccinated group was a 53% reduction in new cases, a 39% decrease in hospitalizations and a 31% decrease in severe diseases from mid-January to February 6, said Eran Segal, a data researcher. at the Weizmann Institute. of Science in Rehovot, Israel.
(Chart: Trends in COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations in Israel after vaccination -)
During the same period, among people under the age of 60 who later became eligible for shooting, new cases decreased by 20%, but hospitalizations and severe illnesses increased by 15% and 29%, respectively.
Reuters interviewed top Israeli and foreign scientists, Israeli health officials, heads of hospitals and two of the country’s largest healthcare providers about new data from the world’s most effective vaccine launch .
The vaccination system provided a database that provides information on how effective vaccines are outside of controlled clinical trials and when countries could obtain the sought-after but evasive immunity of the herd.
More will be known in two weeks as teams analyze the vaccine’s effectiveness in younger groups of Israelis, as well as target populations such as people with diabetes, cancer and pregnant women, in a patient base of at least 10 times higher than in clinical trials.
“We need to have enough variety of people in that subgroup and enough tracking time so you can draw the right conclusions, and we get to this point,” said Ran Balicer, director of innovation at HMO Clalit, which covers more than half the population. Israeli.
Pfizer monitors the Israeli launch weekly for information that can be used worldwide.
Being a small country with universal healthcare, advanced data capabilities and the promise of a rapid launch, Israel offered Pfizer a unique opportunity to study the real impact of the vaccine developed with BioNTech in Germany.
But the company said it remained “difficult to predict the exact time when herd protection could begin to manifest itself” due to many variables at stake, including social distancing measures and the number of new infections caused by each case, known as reproduction rate.
Even Israel, at the forefront of the global impetus for vaccination, has lowered its expectations of a quick exit from the pandemic due to growing cases.
A third national blockade has sought to contain the transmission, attributed to the rapidly spreading virus in the UK. On a positive note, the Pfizer / BioNTech shot seems to be effective against it.
“We have so far identified the same 90% to 95% effectiveness against the British strain,” said Hezi Levi, director general of the Israeli Ministry of Health.
“It’s still early, because we’ve only just finished the first week after the second dose,” he said, adding, “It’s too early to say anything about the South African version.”
WHICH ARM?
Israel began its vaccination program on December 19 – the day after Hanukkah – after paying a premium for the supply of the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine.
Four days later, the more contagious version of the United Kingdom was detected in four people. While the vaccine prevents disease in the elderly, the variant now accounts for 80% of new cases.
Being in a race between the vaccine and the new variant, Israel began to hit the 60-year-olds and gradually opened the program for the rest of the population.
Every detail was tracked digitally, up to which arm the patient was caught and from which bottle it comes.
One week after taking the second dose of Pfizer – the point where full protection is expected to begin – 254 of the 416,900 people were infected, according to Maccabi, a major Israeli healthcare provider.
(Chart: COVID-19 infections among vaccinated persons -)
Comparing this to an unvaccinated group resulted in a 91% vaccine effectiveness, Maccabi said.
At 22 days after complete vaccination, no infections were reported.
Israeli experts are confident that vaccines, rather than blocking measures, have reduced the numbers, based on the study of different cities, age groups and pre-vaccination blockages.
The comparisons were “convincing to tell us that this is the effect of vaccination,” said Segal Institute Weizmann.
With 80% of the elderly partially or completely vaccinated, a fuller picture will start to appear immediately after this week.
“And we expect a further decrease in general cases and cases of severe morbidity,” said Balicer of HMO Clalit.
VACCINES AND TRANSMISSION
There may be early signs that vaccinations are reducing the spread of the virus in addition to the disease
At the largest COVID-19 test center in Israel, run by MyHeritage, the researchers looked at a significant decrease in the number of people infected with the virus, known as the cT value, among the most vaccinated age groups.
This suggests that even if vaccinated people become infected, they are less likely to infect others, said MyHeritage scientific director Yaniv Erlich.
“The data so far is probably the clearest in Israel. I think these vaccines will reduce subsequent transmission, “said Stefan Baral of Johns Hopkins School of Public Health in Maryland.
DIMINISHING RETURNS
It is unclear whether Israel will be able to maintain its world-leading vaccination rate.
“When you get vaccinated fast and hard, you end up with hardcore – those who are less willing or harder to get,” said Boaz Lev, head of the Health Ministry’s advisory panel.
The pace of vaccination is seen even more crucial with the rapid transmission of the British version.
“In the race between the spread of the UK variant and vaccinations, the end result is that we see a kind of plateau in terms of seriously ill patients,” Segal said.
The big question is whether vaccines can eradicate the pandemic.
Michal Linial, a professor of molecular biology and bioinformatics at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said data from recent decades suggest that viruses are becoming endemic and seasonal.
She predicted that this coronavirus would become much less aggressive, probably requiring a booster shot within three years.
“The virus is not going anywhere,” she concluded.
Additional reporting by Dan Williams, Ronen Zvulun, Steven Scheer and Julie Steenhuysen; Written by Maayan Lubell; Editing by Bill Berkrot