On Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will meet at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida, for the Super Bowl LV. Will Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and the powerful Chiefs offense defend their title and take home another Super Bowl championship? Can Tom Brady get upset and take his seventh Super Bowl ring? Will one of the defenders win MVP honors at the Super Bowl or will another player appear?
Prior to launch, ESPN analysts, writers, commentators, settlers and experts make predictions for the big game.
Jump to: Who wins?
Chiefs Bucs | MVP
The story: the bosses have the advantage, 69-24
Out of 93 experts who weighed, the chiefs were favored by 69 of them (74.2%), while the buccaneers obtained 24 votes (25.8%).
The most common estimated final score was 31-27, which was chosen by nine of our experts. The lowest combined total was 38 (21-17). The highest combined score was 78 (41-37). The highest predicted margin of victory was 24 points (48-24).
Betting context: Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill currently favors Kansas City by 3 points. Fifty-four of the 93 experts have the chiefs covering this spread, while 27 say the Buccaneers will cover. Twelve have it as a push. Above / below is 56.5 at William Hill’s Caesars Sportsbook. Fifty-seven of the experts in this pool have the game that exceeds the total, while 36 as under.
ESPN Football Strength Index: FPI likes bosses (52.1%) with an average of 0.7 points.
Predicting a victory for the bosses (69)
“The Chiefs were the better team when these two teams met in Week 12. While the Bucs have improved since then, so have the Chiefs. Kansas City wins 30-20.” – Adam Teicher, chief reporter
Aaron Schatz, Football Outsiders: 34-31
Adam Teicher, chief reporter: 30-20
Ben Baby, Bengals reporter: 31-17
Bill Barnwell, NFL writer: 31-24
Brady Henderson, Seahawks reporter: 26-21
Brooke Pryor, Steelers reporter: 38-35
Cameron Wolfe, Dolphins reporter: 31-27
Chris Berman, NFL studio host: 30-20
Courtney Cronin, Vikings reporter: 33-28
Dan Orlovsky, NFL analyst: 30-27
David Fleming, NFL writer: 48-24
David Newton, Panthers reporter: 31-23
Doug Kezirian, ESPN Chalk: 28-24
Ed Werder, NFL reporter: 34-24
Elizabeth Merrill, NFL writer: 31-30
Emmett Golden, ESPN radio: 41-37
Field Yates, NFL analyst: 34-26
Hannah Storm, SportsCenter anchor: 31-24
Ian Fitzsimmons, ESPN Radio: 31-24
Jake Trotter, Browns reporter: 31-28
Jamison Hensley, Ravens reporter: 34-20
Jason Fitz, ESPN Radio: 41-28
Jason Reid, The Undefeated: 34-21
Jay Williams, ESPN Radio: 34-21
Jeff Dickerson, Bears reporter: 30-26
Jeremy Fowler, NFL writer / reporter: 27-24
Joe Fortenbaugh, ESPN radio: 30-24
John Sutcliffe, ESPN Sports: 37-30
Jordan Raanan, Giants reporter: 33-32
Kary Correa, ESPN Sports: 27-24
Kenny Mayne, SportsCenter anchor: 35-28
Kevin Seifert, NFL writer / reporter: 37-34
Kevin Van Valkenburg, NFL writer: 41-24
Keyshawn Johnson, NFL analyst: 42-27
Laura Rutledge, NFL Live host: 35-31
Lindsey Thiry, Rams reporter: 31-28
Marcus Spears, NFL analyst: 31-24
Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: 31-23
Matt Hasselbeck, NFL analyst: 33-30
Matt Jones, ESPN radio: 38-28
Matthew Berry, fantasy writer: 30-24
Max Kellerman, first take: 31-27
Michael Rothstein, Lions reporter: 38-27
Mike Golic Jr., ESPN Radio: 31-27
Mike Greenberg, Get up! host: 30-27
Mike Tannenbaum, NFL analyst: 31-27
Mike Triplett, Saints reporter: 30-26
Mike Wells, Colts reporter: 34-24
Mina Kimes, NFL analyst: 31-27
Myron Medcalf, writer: 31-21
Nick Wagoner, 49ers reporter: 34-23
Nicole Briscoe, SportsCenter Anchor: 35-32
Pablo Viruega, ESPN Sports: 35-31
Paul Gutierrez, Raiders reporter: 34-31
Peter Burns, host of ESPN studio: 31-17
Rebeca Landa, ESPN Sports: 31-27
Rex Ryan, NFL analyst: 28-21
Rob Demovsky, Packers reporter: 31-30
Ryan McGee, writer: 34-27
Sarah Barshop, Texan reporter: 34-24
Sebastian Martinez-Christensen, ESPN Sports: 27-23
Seth Walder, analytical writer: 34-21
Shae Cornette, ESPN Radio: 31-21
Shelley Smith, Chargers reporter: 27-14
Stephen A. Smith, First Take: 38-34
Tim Hasselbeck, NFL analyst: 21-17
Tim Keown, NFL writer: 35-24
Todd Archer, Cowboys reporter: 31-27
Todd McShay, NFL project analyst: 30-26
Predicting a victory for the Buccaneers (24)
“Bucs ‘defense has 7.0 sacks and seven innings in three playoff games – and Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaquil Barrett can make Muhammad uncomfortable in his pocket. But how will they withstand their defensive backs against the bosses’ speed? I think they’ll do enough. Bucs wins 29-27. ” – Jenna Laine, Buccaneers reporter
Chris Carlin, ESPN Radio: 34-30
Dan Graziano, NFL writer / reporter: 35-31
Eduardo Varela, ESPN Sports: 38-35
Jenna Laine, Buccaneers reporter: 29-27
John Buccigross, SportsCenter anchor: 26-23
John Keim, Washington reporter: 28-24
Jordan Cornette, ESPN Radio: 27-24
Josh Weinfuss, Cardinal Reporter: 35-34
Katie George, reporter: 31-28
Kirk Morrison, NFL analyst: 31-27
Mark Herzlich, analyst: 31-27
Matt Barrie, SportsCenter anchor: 31-27
Matt Schick, ESPN studio host: 34-30
Mauricio Pedroza, ESPN Sports: 30-27
Michelle Beisner-Buck, NFL reporter: 28-21
Mike Clay, NFL analyst: 30-27
Mike DiRocco, Jaguars reporter: 31-24
Mike Reiss, Patriots reporter: 30-27
Molly Qerim Rose, First Take host: 31-27
Randy Scott, SportsCenter anchor: 32-27
Rich Cimini, Jets reporter: 35-31
Seth Wickersham, NFL writer: 30-27
Tedy Bruschi, NFL analyst: 27-24
Turron Davenport, Titans reporter: 35-31
MVP Super Bowl
Muhammad was the most common choice to win the Super Bowl MVP. Not surprisingly, given that he is the team’s defender, most of our experts have chosen to win the Super Bowl – and last season’s Super Bowl MVP. Fifty-two of the 93 experts who participated in the MVP elected Muhammad, 55.9% of the vote. Eight of the last 11 Super Bowl MVPs have been defenders.
Brady was the next choice, getting 17 votes. Another eight players won at least one vote. The odds below are from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs (-120): Aaron Schatz, Bill Barnwell, Brady Henderson, Brooke Pryor, Cameron Wolfe, Chris Berman, Courtney Cronin, David Newton, Doug Kezirian, Elizabeth Merrill, Field Yates, Hannah Storm, Ian Fitzsimmons, Jake Trotter, Jason Fitz, Jason Reid, Jay Williams , Joe Fortenbaugh, John Sutcliffe, Jordan Raanan, Kary Correa, Kenny Mayne, Kevin Seifert, Kevin Van Valkenburg, Keyshawn Johnson, Laura Rutledge, Lindsey Thiry, Marcus Spears, Mark Herzlich, Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Jones, Matthew Berry, Max Kellerman, Mike DiRocco, Mike Golic Jr., Mike Greenberg, Mike Tannenbaum, Mike Triplett, Mike Wells, Mina Kimes, Myron Medcalf, Nicole Briscoe, Pablo Viruega, Paul Gutierrez, Rebeca Landa, Rex Ryan, Rob Demovsky, Sarah Barshop, Sebastian Martinez- Christensen, Seth Walder, Shelley Smith, Tim Hasselbeck, Todd McShay
Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers (+200): Chris Carlin, Dan Graziano, Jenna Laine, John Keim, Jordan Cornette, Josh Weinfuss, Katie George, Kirk Morrison, Matt Schick, Mauricio Pedroza, Michelle Beisner-Buck, Mike Clay, Mike Reiss, Molly Qerim Rose, Rich Cimini
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs (+1100): Ben Baby, Dan Orlovsky, Emmett Golden, Jeff Dickerson, Jeremy Fowler, Matt Bowen, Todd Archer
Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs (+1100): David Fleming, Jamison Hensley, Nick Wagoner, Ryan McGee, Stephen A. Smith
Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers (+3000): Eduardo Varela, John Buccigross, Turron Davenport
Tyrann Mathieu, S, bosses (+4000): Adam Teicher, Michael Rothstein, Tim Keown
Devin White, LB, Buccaneers (+8000): Matt Barrie, Randy Scott, Tedy Bruschi
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Chiefs (+3000): Shae Cornette, Peter Burns
Chris Jones, DT, Chiefs (+8000): Ed Werder
Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, Buccaneers (+10000): Seth Wickersham