LONDON (Reuters) – A third pandemic blockade appears to have little impact on COVID-19 rates in England, researchers warned on Thursday, with the prevalence of the disease “very high” and “no evidence of decline” in the first 10 days. renewed restrictions.
Until COVID-19 rates are substantially reduced, health services will “remain under extreme pressure” and the number of deaths will continue to rise rapidly, said researchers leading Imperial College London’s REACT-1 prevalence study.
“Currently, the number of patients with COVID-19 (in the hospital) is extremely high and we cannot expect it to decrease if we cannot reach lower levels of prevalence,” said Steven Riley, a professor of infectious disease dynamics who led the work together.
“The fact that (prevalence) does not decrease has potentially serious consequences”
Prime Minister Boris Johnson put England in a third national blockade on January 5, closing bars, restaurants and most schools and allowing only department stores to open.
Ministers called on people to stay home as long as possible to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed and to give authorities time to launch COVID-19 vaccines to the elderly and those most at risk.
But presenting his latest data – which covers January 6 – January 15 – Riley said prevalence rates were 1.58%, the highest since the REACT-1 study began in May 2020. This is an increase of over 50% of the last reading in mid-December.
Riley also warned against the immediate lack of hope in COVID-19 photos.
“The vaccine will have a very limited impact on short-term prevalence,” he told reporters.
Paul Elliott, an expert in epidemiology and public health medicine and director of the REACT program, said that stubborn levels of COVID-19 infection may be due in part to a more transmissible variant of the virus that appeared late last year.
“We really need to double our public health measures – wear faces, keep your distance and wash your hands,” Elliott said. “There will be continuous pressure until we can reduce the prevalence.”
The British government on Wednesday reported a new record daily increase in deaths, with 1,820 people dying within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test. However, new infections – at 38,905 – fell from a recent peak of 68,053 on January 8.
The Ministry of Health said that the full impact of the blockade will not yet be reflected in the prevalence figures, but added that the survey highlighted the importance of everyone staying home and respecting the restrictions.
Reported by Kate Kelland. Additional reporting by Alistair Smout. Edited by Marl Potter