The analyst appreciates El Salvador’s political crossroads and Washington’s clear concern about the country’s authoritarian course. Reporting threats to the rule of law, monitoring democratic institutions and fighting corruption will be key points.
The president of the influential center of analysis of inter-American dialogue, Michael Shifter, analyzes the dangerous spiral of authoritarianism in which El Salvador has engaged, with an authoritarian government dominated in form and substance by the figure of President Nayib Bukele.
As head of this think tank that measures the region’s pulse, Shifter points to the clear messages that the administration of President Joe Biden and much of the federal legislature, both Democrats and some Republicans, have sent to the Bukele administration. And there is no doubt that the gear of American diplomacy has begun to move parts for work in the well-known North Triangle of Central America, a region that continues to be a priority, but under clearer rules of the game.
Associated topic: Bukele travels to Washington and no Biden government official wanted to receive him
This expert, who is also a career professor in foreign service at the prestigious Georgetown University in Washington, where he teaches Latin American politics, is an authorized voice to analyze the problems in the region. Michael Shifter talks to El Diario de Hoy about the Salvadoran panorama seen from Washington.
What can be said about El Salvador at the moment in Washington, with the new political scenario already consolidated and when the stake for the region has been revealed?
The region is generally going through a difficult time. It was difficult before the pandemic, but it got worse with the arrival of Covid-19; As for El Salvador, there seems to be growing concern about the government of President Nayib Bukele. While it is true that his level of support from the people of the country is remarkable, what began with some concern about his more authoritarian tendencies has grown greatly and is now a position shared by both Democrats and many Republicans. from Washington.
On 9F, President Nayib Bukele sat in the chair of the President of the Assembly, played the gong and opened the plenary. / Photo Archive EDH
Are there any trigger points to outline this figure of authority?
The events of February 9, 2020, with the taking of the Legislative Assembly with the army, greatly influenced the perception that was already beginning to be had about Bukele. Then I saw the attacks on the independent media, which show a low tolerance in a climate of democratic culture. The perception in the United States was more concerned with the authoritarian tendencies shown by the Bukele government.
Before Bukele won the presidential election, you pointed out that there were signs of erosion of bipartisanship in El Salvador and that it was necessary to pay attention to it in relation to other trials in the region. Is there a substantial difference between Bukele and other Latin American democracies that have shaken up the party system?
We need to define a more nuanced analysis of the arguments of some analysts, who believe that Bukele defended himself by saying that what is happening in El Salvador should not be confused with other countries such as Nicaragua, Venezuela and Cuba, which went through dictatorships and El Salvador today does not. it is a dictatorship, it is true; however, their undemocratic behavior and against the rules and principles of the rule of law are worrying; During all the time that both ARENA and FMLN were in power, there were never signs like the ones we saw with Bukele, despite many tensions and conflicts.
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On February 28, the question is clear whether El Salvador will have an independent Assembly or one controlled by the Executive. How do you think President Joe Biden’s administration will adapt to this new scenario?
We will have to see what happens with the elections, but I think that as far as Bukele is concerned, the Biden administration has sent very clear messages: the decision not to receive him when he came to Washington speaks volumes. It will be a challenge to redefine relations with El Salvador, which is obviously an important country for Biden’s policy in the region, but it will also be very clear that the issues of democracy, human rights, the free press and the fight against corruption are already done. part of the agenda, which has been missing for the past four years, with Donald Trump.
Joe Biden, President of the United States. Photo / AFP
What can we expect from Biden’s commitment to the Northern Triangle, knowing that these three countries are currently going through different situations, especially in terms of democracy?
It is a difficult region to stratify; however, President Biden has a clear commitment to the North American Triangle, which he made clear when he was Vice-President. We know how much you care about what’s going on there. He will try to improve the conditions that give rise to irregular migration to the United States, but it will not be easy, as economic and violent conditions throughout the region are difficult; they will have to make deep commitments and involvement in the region. No one doubts that it will take a long time, even with that $ 4 billion to do so.
How much freedom does the US government have to work in the region, given that the previous administration has invested heavily in immigration alone?
The United States is very important to Central America. Those countries that face enormous challenges and challenges can achieve greater cooperation with the United States; something that could improve conditions. In this regard, the United States has room for maneuver because countries want cooperation, but this will come with efficiency and firmness to ignore authoritarian governments, as we have not seen so far, and signs such as the fact that President Bukele does not receive some comments about Honduras, is a firm position that seeks to influence the behavior of leaders and those governments.
In addition, is the region almost tied to the power of the north?
The United States has sufficient margins and resources, and the region is so attached to the United States in all economic, cultural, and migratory ways, however, there is no escape, this country is large and strong, and the countries of Central America are small. and relatively weak.
And the influence of China, which was seen as a shadow over the region?
I believe that China’s role is a permanent presence, first in South America and now in North America, and I believe that this presence should be an incentive for the United States to improve cooperation with countries and compete with China, because each country offers different things in different fields. Therefore, partners in the region need to be mobilized to present a more attractive alternative than China.
How strong do you see the private sector in the current situation in El Salvador?
The private sector in El Salvador plays a key role; It needs to be quite clear about the importance of the social agenda, improving the health system, education and other services that are not working well; It is clear that having a more open and democratic government is convenient for the private sector, because it creates conditions of stability, authoritarian governments generate many divisions and shocks, which is not good for the private sector. In El Salvador and other countries, a social pact must be sought, in which the private sector plays a key role.
Is there an estimate of the impact of the pandemic on the weakening of democracy in the region or is there still debt in this regard?
There are governments that have taken advantage of the pandemic as a pretext for power control, and it is always convenient for governments to invoke an emergency, as this allows for more authoritative specific measures to address that emergency; There were some of these, the pandemic was a factor in the deterioration of conditions in the region and which also generated social discontent.