A Covid-19 test site in Cape Coral, Florida.
Photographer: Zack Wittman / Bloomberg
Photographer: Zack Wittman / Bloomberg
Covid cases in the US are on the rise again, reversing the course after months of decline and threatening another obstacle to a return to normalcy.
The seven-day average of new cases rose to 57,695 on Wednesday, up 9.5% from the previous week, marking the largest increase since Jan. 12, according to Data from Johns Hopkins University.
Although this is a fraction of the peak in mid-January, the change of direction is worrying, as states open their economies, variant cases are multiplying and countries are struggling to vaccinate as many people as possible to avoid another wave.
“We are not out of danger,” said Ali Mokdad, a professor of health measurement science at the Institute for Health Metrics and Assessment at the University of Washington, which produces influential Covid-19 projections. “We are slowing down and, in many places, we are going in the wrong direction.”
Upswing in cases
Weekly percentage change over the 7-day average of US cases
Source: Johns Hopkins University data
The numbers of cases in New York reported this week by Johns Hopkins appeared artificially inflated after data gaps. But this has not had a significant impact on the national trend, which is growing at about the same level even without New York.
“Now is not the time to give up. We have the goal in sight, we need more vaccines and we need more effective ways to get it out, ”said Isaac Weisfuse, a medical epidemiologist and adjunct professor at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York. “It’s a tragedy for someone to get infected and die at this stage.”
An increase of nearly 10% should require states to reconsider reopening plans and try to speed up vaccination, focusing on the worst-affected neighborhoods, Weisfuse said. Rising pandemic fatigue among young Americans, especially those traveling for spring break, is a significant concern because they are less likely to have been hit.
The US vaccinated 1 in 4 people, and last week had an average of about 2.5 million doses a day, according to Bloomberg’s Vaccine Tracker. This is not enough to boost the herd’s immunity, and many public health experts fear that another increase could occur before the pressure on immunization reaches its maximum. Texas, Tennessee and Alabama are among the slowest in the country, which may reflect the hesitation of the vaccine among Republicans, especially men.
While vaccinations and the declining season of coronavirus play to the advantage of the United States, this is weighed against more contagious variants, increasing mobility and decreasing the wearing of masks, Mokdad said.
Declining cases in large states, such as California, Texas and Florida, have masked increases elsewhere. “We see localized growth, but we could see it everywhere,” Mokdad said. “If we do not rush to call back or impose mandates to slow growth, yes, we will see an increase in cases.”
Hospitalizations in some states are also beginning to defy the downward trend. Seven states, including New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland, reported a daily increase in average daily Covid-19 admissions for one consecutive week, according to a University of Minnesota analysis of data from the Department of Health and Human Services.
“It’s important not to ignore the changes, especially when those changes become more consistent,” he said Pinar Karaca-Mandic, professor of health risk management who leads the analysis.
The good news is that fewer hospitalizations can lead to hospitalizations or deaths in intensive care, as the vaccination campaign has focused on older Americans and those most at risk, Karaca-Mandic said.
– With the assistance of Jonathan Levin