The death rate from COVID-19 will drop sharply in the next four weeks, according to a new forecast that shows a brutal wave of declining cases and the US plunges ahead with the distribution of vaccines.
The nation is expected to have about 12,666 deaths in the week ending March 13, according to the University of Massachusetts’ COVID-19 Forecast Center, which issued a four-week forecast on Tuesday. The prediction is based on independent models collected in collaboration with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The number would be a 43% decrease from the 22,062 deaths reported last week, according to Johns Hopkins University.
Although cases have dropped by a month, deaths – an indicator of delay – have not dropped much from record levels, according to Johns Hopkins. This should start to change this week, and the numbers will gradually improve over the next four weeks. The pace would be the slowest since the November 28 deadline.
(Tabulation methods vary, and the widely used accounts of the COVID tracking project show that deaths are already declining to a greater degree.)
The vaccine is still in its infancy, with only 4.5 percent of Americans receiving the two doses needed, according to Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker. But Americans also use masks at near-record levels and travel less, according to survey and mobility data compiled by the Institute for Health Metrics and Assessment.
In addition, the CDC estimates that about 83.1 million Americans could have already been infected, many acquiring a measure of natural immunity that has been shown to last at least five months.
However, there are many reasons to remain vigilant. The US is beginning to see new variants of the virus spread more easily and many residents have been forced to gather together in homes and shelters to wait for a winter storm. Moreover, Americans have tended to relax mitigation measures as soon as cases begin to decline in their communities.
The U.S. registered 53,410 new cases Monday, bringing the seven-day average to 86,002, the lowest since Nov. 3, according to Johns Hopkins. The data show that there were generally almost 487,000 deaths.
According to the data of the follow-up project:
- The number of people currently hospitalized with the virus fell from a week earlier in all but North Dakota and Wyoming.
- South Carolina has seen the most per capita cases in the last week.
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