Bucs-Packers, Bills-Chiefs elections, schedule, odds, injuries, predictions, more for AFC and NFC championships

The NFL playoff conference championship games have arrived, both starting Sunday. Fifth-ranked Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face the Green Bay Packers in the NFC championship game, and then Buffalo Bills, No. 2 in the standings, will play the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC championship game. . The winners advance to the Super Bowl LV on February 7th.

We preview both title games. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the keys to the games, a bold prediction for every game and the final score choices.

In addition, ESPN Statistics and Information provides a statistic to know for each game, and the Football Power Index (FPI) comes in numbers with a match rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a projection of the game. ESPN Chalk’s Dave Bearman shares useful nuggets, and NFL analyst Matt Bowen points out a key game to watch. Everything is here to prepare you for an exciting football weekend in the NFL playoffs.

Jump to a match:
TB-GB | BUF-KC

15:05 ET | Fox
Match rating: 96.3 | Spread: GB -3 (51.5)

What to look for: If there was one thing we missed during Matt LaFleur’s two-year success as Packers coach, it may be a slow step to adapt. When these teams met in the 6th week, Bucs played covering the area on 61% of Aaron Rodgers’ defenders, and Rodgers had his only interception game this season. And in general, the more teams that have played zone against Rodgers in the last two years, the better. LaFleur and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett know what’s next in terms of coverage and how they plan it will dictate their level of success against a tough Tampa Bay defense. – Rob Demovsky

Bold prediction: The touchdown step that wins the game of quarterback Tom Brady of the Buccaneers will not be thrown to wide receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown or Scotty Miller, tight heads Rob Gronkowski or Cameron Brate, or defenders Ronald Jones II or Leonard Fournette. No, he’ll go to wide receiver Tyler Johnson. Minnesota’s fifth-round pick had just one catch last week against the Saints, but that 15-yard touchdown run was high. The only reason we don’t talk more about Johnson is because of the depth chart he was buried. He has the ability to make difficult catches in high pressure situations and will do it again on Sunday. – Jenna Laine

State to know: The two biggest factors in Brady’s performance throughout the season were pressure and vertical play. In 13 wins throughout the season (including the playoffs), he averaged 1.1 sacks per game, saw pressure on 14% of his dropbacks and recorded 82 QBRs. But in five losses, the sacks jumped to 2.2 per game, his pressure rate rose to 27%, and QBR almost split in half (44). And when it comes to deep ball, consider this: on passes thrown 20 yards more on the field in that 18-game span, he hit 45% for 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions in wins, but only 21% for a single score and five choices in losses.

Bowen Matching Key: How will Tampa Bay keep the Packers wide receiver Davante Adams standing? It will start at the scrimmage line in Cover 1, with the Buccaneers corner Carlton Davis trying to use his length and physical features to disrupt Adams’ release. If he can’t, Davis ‘lack of speed in recovery from Adams’ sudden ability to separate will cause trouble for the Bucs. read more.

What’s at stake: A win for the Buccaneers would mark the first non-division champion to reach the 2010 Packers Super Bowl. It would also bring Brady’s 10th appearance in the Super Bowl, which spans three decades. However, Rodgers played in only one Super Bowl. And after losing his last three NFC Championship Game appearances and going 1-3 over his career in this game, Rodgers is trying to avoid becoming only the third QB to have less than two wins and more than three losses. in the conference title matches (Ken Stabler and Donovan McNabb are both 1-4).

Injuries: Buccaneers | packers

Betting Nugget: Brady is 9-4 up and 6-7 against the spread in the conference championship games. The underdog is 8-5 in those matches, including 7-2 in his last nine. read more.

Laine’s choice: Buccaneers 26, Packers 24
Demovsky’s choice: Ambalatori 31, Buccaneers 17
FPI prediction: GB, 53.2% (with an average of 1.1 points)

The crowd at home: Last week’s playoff game at Lambeau Field had 8,456 participants. With potentially more guests from players and coaches from both teams on the stadium this week, the expected attendance is 8,500-9,000. This represents about 10-11% of Lambeau’s 81,441 capacity.

Matchup should read: Finally, Rodgers vs. Brady: In the 13-year-old playoff game … “Too much information” is never enough for the Packers’ dominant offense … WR Brown (knee) to be an in-game call for the Bucs. Crowned achievement: Packers receivers prove worthy once and for all … Bucs beat Rodgers again, but does the formula change? … Rodgers feels no extra pressure, says his future is “a beautiful mystery”

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18:40 ET | CBS
Match rating: 92.3 | Spread: KC -3 (53.5)

What to look for: Will Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (concussion protocol) play? This is the question everyone has in mind, and Chad Henne’s backup has to start if Muhammad is out. But with or without Muhammad, the game of bosses will be something to watch. Kansas City rushed for 245 yards on the season against Buffalo in the 6th week, when the Bills played their safety in many moments and were determined not to let Tyreek Hill and other receivers beat them hard. Sure, this time they will change their strategies, but at what price? The Chiefs received a single pass of more than 22 meters against Bills last time. Can the bills actually slow down the bosses’ running game, while limiting the number of high-pitched games? – Adam Teicher

Bold prediction: Josh Allen’s defender will exceed 350 meters, and wide receiver Stefon Diggs will return in the third consecutive game, with 100 meters of reception and a touchdown. And a little bolder, Bill will not only win, but will carefully overtake the Chiefs in their own backyard, putting Buffalo’s first Super Bowl ticket to the 1993 season. – Marcel Louis-Jacques

State to know: The bills fell back to 73% of the time this postseason and only one team has ever reached a conference title game that has passed more often – Patriots 2015 (83%), which lost in the match of AFC championship that season. Buffalo won just 32 yards last week – the fourth-lowest ever win in the playoffs for Elias Sports Bureau – and Allen currently leads the team on the field with 57 yards in two postseason games. Bills had an average of 64.0 yards per game this season, less than all but one team, ever to reach the Super Bowl; the rams of 1999 had an average of 41.0.

Bowen Matching Key: Be careful defending the bosses to show pressure and turn around late to play Cover 2 “robber”, certainly Tyrann Mathieu as the defender of the middle hole. This allows the bosses to make Allen work post-snap with the late move, but also allows Kansas City to play covering the area with Mathieu lying in the weeds as a midfield presence, in a position to steal a switch. . . read more.

What’s at stake: The Chiefs aim to become the first repeat Super Bowl champions since the 2003-04 Patriots, the longest stretch in NFL history without a repeat champion. They are the 12th defending champion in the Super Bowl to host a conference championship, and the previous 11 teams were 10-1 (the only loss was in the 1990 49ers). Meanwhile, the Bills are trying to return to the Super Bowl for the first time since they lost four in 1990-93. They have not won a title of any kind since the 1965 AFL Championship, and their Super Bowls 0-4 record is equal to that of the Vikings for most winless appearances.

Injuries: Invoices Chiefs Latest about Muhammad

Betting Nugget: The Chiefs are 1-8 against the spread in the last nine games (8-1 straight) and are 0-5 against the spread in the last five home games. read more.

Louis-Jacques’ choice: Invoices 31, bosses 28
Teicher’s choice: Chiefs 27, invoices 22
FPI prediction: KC, 58.3% (with an average of 2.7 points)

The crowd at home: The Chiefs have kept their numbers at or below 22% capacity at Arrowhead Stadium (76,416 total capacity) this season, with the largest crowd coming last week against the Browns (16,730). Expect a similar number at the AFC Championship Game.

Matchup should read: The bills may justify trading in Muhammad’s election to the Super Bowl … For the Chiefs ‘Reid, “every descent is a throw down,” even on the fourth and 1 … How serious is Davis’ ankle injury? The biggest questions heading into the AFC title game … Mahomes practices with limited ability, remain in the concussion protocol