Despite less activity outside business and schools, 2020 saw a dramatic increase in homicides.
The increase was caused by a number of factors, forensic experts told CNN. The pandemic closed schools and businesses, leading to unemployment. This meant that unemployed children and adults were stuck at home, leading to increased stress and anxiety levels, especially in low-income households.
The virus has also changed the way police officers do their jobs – due to disease and social distancing – which in turn has led to a reduction in the number of officers on the streets in areas most in need. crime prevention.
“It’s almost as if these communities simply had their heads above the water, then Covid hit and sank,” Bocanegra said.
In addition to homicides, other violent crimes – aggravated and armed attacks – increased in the spring and summer. Aggravated attacks increased by 15% in summer and 13% in autumn, while gun attacks increased by 15% and 16%, according to the report.
There is no connection between the summer protests and the peak of homicides, experts say
As homicides have risen, nonviolent crime – burglary, theft and drug offenses – has declined as many companies have closed and fewer people on the streets, the report said.
However, the report said “the link, if any, between social unrest and increased violence remains uncertain”.
Richard Rosenfeld, criminologist at the University of Missouri-St. Louis told CNN the same neighborhoods that witnesses to police violence are the same ones that increase crime. These communities have never had a strong or positive relationship with the police, so they cause people to take legal matters into their own hands, he said.
“We have two forces working. We have social and pandemic unrest around police violence, the combination of the two major factors forms a deadly combination. growth (in homicides), “Rosenfeld said.
What is missing from the hypothesis linking protests and rising homicides is “good and hard evidence,” Rosenfeld said.
In other words, the protesters did not commit the crimes, he said.
Bocanegra, the program’s director in Chicago, told CNN that there were protests in the suburbs, but those areas did not see an increase in homicides.
“Those who lead the violence fought even harder before Covid,” he said.
The government must address violence like Covid, experts say
The pandemic has shed new light on how to combat increased violence in cities, experts told CNN.
First, coordination of local, state, and federal governments to mitigate the spread of the virus has not been seen in the United States so far – and criminal justice experts say the same approach should be applied to violence.
“Violence is a symptom of the unrest and inequity we have seen for decades in our communities. We will not change that overnight, we must come up with a 10-20 year plan,” Bocanegra said. “If we are not able to think about future generations … we will continue to have these conversations for 20-30 years from now.”
Jens Ludwig, who runs the University of Chicago’s Crime Lab, told CNN about gun violence and mental health data for 18- to 24-year-olds go hand in hand.
“So, if you look at the issue of gun violence. This is usually concentrated among young people between the ages of 18 and 24. If you look at the CDC data on mental health … people aged 18 to 24 show signs of anxiety, depression, substance use in response to the pandemic and trying to cope with the pandemic, “he said.
Bocanegra said he hoped the country and its city of Chicago would be able to take the lessons learned from Covid-19 and apply them to gun violence. He told CNN that he wonders why there has been no such response in the past.
“Is it because Covid didn’t discriminate on the basis of gender, creed or class? Or is it because most gun issues have an impact on blacks and browns and people with mental health issues?” he said. “Who determines what values lives have more than others?”
In 2021, Rosenfeld said previous years would provide guidance in the coming months. In 2015, there was an 11% increase in homicides nationwide, following protests sparked by Ferguson, which expanded in 2016.
“We may need an increase in homicides next year,” he said.
CNN’s Priya Krishnakumar, Peter Nickeas and Adrienne Broaddus contributed to this report.