Can the Charlotte Hornets continue their advancement in the NBA playoffs without the star LaMelo Ball commercial?
The Hornets announced Sunday that Ball, the third overall pick in this year’s draft, suffered a broken right wrist. right Adrian WojnarowskiESPN’s is expected to miss the rest of the season, which is a huge disappointment, given the level of play the goalkeeper showed.
Led by newcomers Ball and Gordon Hayward along with Terry Rozier, Charlotte is in the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. At 20-21, the Hornets are just 1.5 games away from fourth place in the east, but also 1.5 games away from falling to 10th place and having to win two road games to reach the post- season.
How much will LaMelo’s injury affect Charlotte’s push into the playoffs? How should the Hornets address Thursday’s trading deadline? And what does Ball’s absence mean for the rookie race? Let’s look at the possible consequences of the unfortunate injury.
Ball’s production translates into victories
Last month, together with Mike Schmitz, we discussed the historical level of Ball productivity for a 19-year-old beginner. Nothing has changed since then. In any case, LaMelo has gained attention since arriving in Charlotte in early February. In 21 games as a starter, he averaged 19.5 points, 6.2 assists and 5.8 rebounds per game.
Perhaps most importantly, Ball compiled these numbers with remarkable efficiency for such a young player. His actual shooting percentage of .562 (TS%) is better than the average score guard (.560) overall and improved to .586 as a holder. Although not surprising, he struggled with occasional turnovers (he averages 3.5 to 36 minutes), his scoring efficiency suddenly contrasts with that of voter no. 1 Anthony Edwards of the Minnesota Timberwolves, whose .483 TS% is more typical for a developing teen.
As a result, Ball was more than an interesting infusion of hope for a franchise that has yet to win a series of playoffs in 16 seasons – he was an essential part of bringing the Hornets back to the playoffs. It’s been 11-10 since they promoted Ball to the starting lineup, despite playing 10 of those games without starter Devonte ‘Graham, who returned as a backup from the All-Star break.
In terms of bright looks, a healthy Graham means that Charlotte’s coach, James Borrego, he can still put together a solid rotation of the base in Ball’s absence. The Hornets will definitely return with Graham and Rozier, who started together in the 2019-20 season and for the first month, more this year, with Malik Monk and the Martin twins as reserve options.
According to advanced NBA statistics, Graham-Rozier’s team without the Ball played almost this season (net rating of minus 0.5), so Charlotte’s push into the playoffs is barely sinking. But the Hornets have little room for additional injuries to the guard. Ball or Graham were on the field for more than 90% of the team’s minutes this season, so Rozier will be asked to play more games than he did all year. And Charlotte has no traditional guard other than rookie Grant Riller, so an injury to Graham or Rozier would force Borrego to rely on Hayward as a striker for the second unit.
As mentioned, there is little room for the Hornets to avoid a difficult entry road into the postseason. Prior to Ball’s injury, the ESPN basketball power index projections gave Charlotte a 27% chance to finish in the top six and avoid the game. With just a handful of games separating the home field advantage from last place in the play-in, a win or two away the rest of the way could have a huge impact on the Hornets’ position.
Is it possible to help with the Hornets trading time?
The injury to the ball should affect how the Hornets approach the deadline. Charlotte may have used the $ 4 million cap, along with veteran center Cody Zeller, to expire $ 15.4 million to find another key player for a playoff push. This has never made much sense for a team whose most promising player is a teenager and it seems even less likely that Ball will no longer exist.
Ideally, Hornets would use their space to win a contract from another team. Because the lists are limited to 15 players with full NBA contracts during the season, uneven transactions in which a team recovers more players than it sends to pay for the match are quickly complicated. Charlotte can step in to add one of those players who uses an open spot on the list while receiving cash compensation or a second-round draft pick.
Hornets could use flexibility to help another team and add depth to the guard. For example, if Golden State Warriors wanted to move their $ 2.3 million salary to Brad Wanamaker to reduce their luxury tax bill, now that Nico Mannion has won a rotating seat, Charlotte would be a natural destination.
If not, I would call reserve goalkeeper Jordan McLaughlin Timberwolves, who has a two-way contract but has been productive every time he has seen minutes of rotation. If McLaughlin could be hired in exchange for a low-value second-round pick (Hornets have second-round players this year from both the Brooklyn Nets and the LA Clippers), he would add valuable insurance behind Graham and Rozier.
Ball may still be the start of the year
Although not as important as the shock to Charlotte, Ball’s injury opens the door for another player to win the Rookie of the Year award, which he would have apparently secured when he was healthy. At the same time, Rookie of the Year did not rely as much on good health compared to the MVP, which we talked about on Saturday after LeBron James sprained his ankle.
In 2011-12, Kyrie Irving won the Rookie of the Year award while playing 77% of games in the short lockout season (51 of 66), while Brandon Roy won in 2006-07 playing only 70% (57 of 82). And in 1985-86, Patrick Ewing was Rookie of the Year, despite playing only 50 games (61%), not far from 57% of Ball (41 out of 72) if his season really ended.
With a smaller field of competitors and more variations in field productivity, sustainability is inevitably a minor factor for Rookie of the Year. We saw voters putting a lower limit on the number of games required when Joel Embiid finished third in the vote in 2016-17, when he was clearly the most effective rookie, but played only 31 games (38%).
Compared to 2016-17, when Malcolm Brogdon became the first player selected in the second round to win Woody Sauldsberry’s Rookie of the Year in 1957-58, the field seems deeper this season. However, Ball has established a huge advantage in terms of statistical value. Consider Ball’s advantage in terms of replacement over earnings (WAR) in ESPN’s real plus-minus.
Rookies – leaders in victories over replacement
1. LaMelo Ball: 4.2 WAR
2. Immanuel Quickley: 1.8 (WAR)
3. Desmond Bane: 1.2 (WAR)
4. Saddiq Bey: 1.2 (WAR)
5. Isaiah Stewart: 0.9 (WAR)
Ball has produced almost twice as many wins over the replacement as any other rookie so far, leading a group of players selected out of the top 10 who have generally thrived in smaller roles. His breakthrough in the other five picks in generating the kind of stats per game that usually translates into Rookie of the Year is even more dramatic. No one else in this group evaluates better than the replacement level so far.
WAR of the ‘top 5’ of the draft
1. LaMelo Ball: 4.2 (WAR)
2. James Wiseman: 0.0 (WAR)
3. Anthony Edwards: -1.2 (WAR)
4. Patrick Williams: -1.4 (WAR)
5. Isaac Okoro: -1.9 (WAR)
It’s too early to rule out the Rookie of the Year race, as a competitor may explode in the last two months of the season. But the advantage that Ball has at the moment will make it difficult to catch him.