Ethiopian troops and their allies in the northeastern province of Tigray are facing a growing insurgency fueled by a series of massacres and other violence targeting civilians.
The country’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, launched a military offensive four months ago to “restore the rule of law”, eliminating the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the ruling political party in the province, following growing tensions and of a surprise attack. on a federal army basis.
Despite government demands for a significant improvement in the security situation in recent weeks, tens of thousands of Ethiopian soldiers and soldiers sent from neighboring Eritrea to support military operations in Addis Ababa appear to be facing continued resistance.
Mekelle, the provincial capital, is relatively calm, but there are reports of fighting elsewhere. About a third of the province can remain under government control.
A series of fierce clashes took place in mid-February around the town of Samre, a small town 40 km southwest of Mekelle, while thousands of Ethiopian troops backed by artillery, tanks and airstrikes defeated loyal TPLF forces.
Residents of Adigrat, northeast of Tigray, say they heard heavy weapons firing for days on the hills around the city. Similar reports came from the city of Adwa at an important strategic intersection near the border with Eritrea and elsewhere.
There are also reports of ambushes and other clashes in central and western Tigray, but with strict restrictions on the media and reduced communications in most of the province, confirmation of the details is difficult.
In its latest report on conditions in Tigray, the UN said intensified fighting had been reported across the province.
Abiy declared war in December after the TPLF leadership ousted Mekelle and a loyal Addis Ababa interim administration was installed. The TPLF suffered heavy losses in the conflict and lost much of its military equipment.
Since then, however, it appears to have regrouped. Several senior TPLF leaders have been captured, but others remain in mountainous areas and have been able to contact analysts, the media and supporters outside Ethiopia in recent days.
Getachew K Reda, former TPLF Minister, sent a series of tweets from an unknown location earlier this week, its first in November, and TPLF President Gebretsion Debremichael gave a CNN interview.
Revolution
The Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) overthrows Colonel Mengistu Haile Mariam, the leader of a communist junta that has led the country since 1974. The coalition group is led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), guerrillas marched from their homeland. in northern Ethiopia to the capital, Addis Ababa.
He proclaimed the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
EPRDF comes to power in poorly contested elections, and TPLF leader Meles Zenawi becomes Ethiopia’s prime minister. The Tigraans dominate the higher ranks of the government.
Ethnic federalism
Meles introduces a system that gives the country’s main ethnic groups a chance to govern the areas in which they dominate. Although Tigers make up about 5% of the population, they benefit disproportionately, other regions complain that roads and other infrastructure are being built in their sparsely populated areas.
Meles dies
The prime minister dies in office and is named a successor to another ethnic group.
ERPDF divided
Divisions erupt in the EPRDF over how quickly political reforms can continue in response to street protests threatening to tighten the coalition.
Abiy Ahmed comes to power
Abiy Ahmed, an Oromo, takes over as prime minister, earning praise at home and abroad for opening one of Africa’s most restrictive political and economic systems.
repression
Tigraians complain that they are being persecuted in a crackdown on past corruption and abuse. Former senior military and political officials are on trial.
The price of peace
Abiy is awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his peace efforts, which put an end to two hostilities with Eritrea. The TPLF continues to view Eritrea as an enemy.
Divisions
The ruling coalition in Ethiopia agrees to form a single party, but the TPLF refuses to merge with three other parties of ethnic origin, considering the action hasty and undemocratic.
The turn of the elections
Tigray is holding regional elections in defiance of the federal government, which has postponed nationwide polls in August because of Covid-19. The Abiy government says the vote is illegal.
Retained funds
The federal government is beginning to withhold some funds for social assistance programs in Tigray, part of a plan to starve regional cash authorities in retaliation for the vote.
The fights break out
Abiy sends troops to Tigray, accusing TPLF of attacking federal troops based in the region. The TPLF accuses Abiy of punishing the region for its September vote. Reuters
US and European intelligence officials have been closely monitoring the fighting for Samre, looking for indicators of the intensity and possible future course of the fighting in Tigray.
One said that the battle suggested that a “complex, dynamic and chaotic” contest was taking place. TPLF “was hit quite hard in the first months and took some time to recover. Now it looks like they have gathered, “the official said.
Samre, a group of steel-covered houses and a square on a plateau, has changed hands repeatedly since mid-November. When TPLF forces last withdrew in mid-February, much of the population fled and fell victim to airstrikes and artillery bombardment, according to residents. Government troops are believed to have emptied grain depots and destroyed orchards in retaliation for human support for the TPLF.
Map of Tigray
Local sources reported on Wednesday that Eritrean soldiers in the city told the remaining civilians that additional support for TPLF forces would be severely punished. According to an unconfirmed account, the soldiers threatened to amputate one hand and one foot, referring to a punishment of the 19th century Ethiopian kings, given to them by the traitors during the war.
A senior TPLF leader said his military commanders were told not to hold positions that would make them vulnerable to the superior firepower of federal forces, especially in rural areas.
“The landscape is crucial,” said Wolbert Smidt, a German historian and ethnographer who has lived and researched in Ethiopia for decades, especially in Tigray. “The population is mostly rural, using roads and communication networks known only locally. This is why past governments have never been able to establish effective control without some degree of recognition of local self-government. ”
Massacres and other human rights abuses motivate many young Tigers to take up arms, independent observers and TPFL officials told the Guardian.
Incidents include the killing of about 700 people at a famous religious site in Axum and another 164 in Dengolat, a village in northern Tigray. The atrocities were also attributed to the Tigrayan forces. Hundreds of people died in a massacre accused of a TPLF-linked militia in Mai Kadra in early November.
On Friday, Human Rights Watch said the Axum massacre took place after members of the Tigrayan militia, along with some residents, attacked Eritrean soldiers. The Eritreans demanded reinforcements, then began to look for young men and boys and execute them.
„The [Tigrayan] young people are very upset. Until recently, [the TPLF] he could not train or arm all the volunteers who came to them … In the last few days, they are telling them to come again “, said a TPLF administrative officer who fled Tigray in a neighboring province and is in contact with former colleagues.
William Davison, an analyst in Ethiopia at the International Crisis Group, said there were several reports of young people joining TPLF’s military wing as news of the atrocities spread. “There seems to be an almost unanimous outrage … It is very difficult to say how big the rebel force is now, but all the indicators suggest that the labor force is not a problem,” he said.
Anger among Tigrais has been exacerbated by attacks on sites of immense cultural importance in the province. Targeting once-sacrosanct shelters has pushed those fleeing violence to look for TPLF-controlled areas, local residents of Tigray suggest.
Michelle Bachelet, the UN high commissioner for human rights, said on Thursday that her office had confirmed serious violations that could constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity in Tigray.
Most of the massacres reported so far took place in November or December last year, but there is evidence that they continued until January. Between 150 and 300 young people were killed in a village near Dela, south of Samre, during the fighting about six weeks ago.
Although details of the incident are unclear, relatives of the victims contacted friends and sympathizers in Europe, telling them that after clashes with TPLF fighters, government soldiers surrounded men of fighting age and shot many in the fields. After Samre was resumed in mid-February, it appears that the fires were intended to destroy more than 500 structures near the city.
Other images suggest burning of similar houses in other parts of Tigray, such as along the border with Eritrea.
There is also widespread concern about attacks on women and children and ongoing sexual violence. Patients at Ayder Referral Hospital in Mekelle included about 120 survivors of sexual violence, with some reporting reports of gang rape by soldiers. “It’s a plague on women. Our sisters are suffering, ”said a doctor who works with rape survivors, who asked not to be called for fear of reprisals.
Eritrean officials described the accusations of massacres committed by their soldiers as “outrageous lies”. The Ethiopian government said on Wednesday that federal officials are investigating “credible allegations of atrocities and serious human rights abuses” and will be held accountable.
“Ethiopia rejects any partisan interventions and politically motivated campaigns against the country and the government, aimed at undermining the rule of law measures it has taken and will continue to prosecute the criminal clique and other perpetrators,” the statement said.
Davison described the conflict as “probably impossible for both sides to win.” “If people are going to put the pieces back together, they need to find a way to start a political process,” he said.