“The potential is there for significant severe weather,” said meteorologist Jason Holmes of the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Birmingham, Alabama.
These types of tornadoes are the ones that stay on the ground consistently for an extended period of time, unlike a typical one that can only be on the ground for a few minutes.
The system that will be responsible for these strong storms is currently located near the west coast of the US, but will make its trek through the Rocky Mountains and eject into the Plains by midweek, allowing for an atmospheric setup conducive to the emergence of dangerous storms.
“We have increasingly warmer and more humid air over the Gulf of Mexico that will quickly rise north – those large-scale conditions are quite favorable for severe storms. We think some of the smaller details we often see on more expensive days, especially with a significant tornado potential will also be there, ”said Bill Bunting, Chief of Forecast Operations at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC).
“This is a very strong system whose severe storm potential has been monitored as it develops and moves northeast from the plains to the Ohio Valley,” Holmes told CNN.
Time out from the storms
This next system will introduce the threat of thunderstorms to much of Kansas, Oklahoma and northeast and central Texas as early as Tuesday night.
However, the greatest risk is likely to be during the nighttime hours of Tuesday and continue until Wednesday morning. An isolated tornado is possible, but the main risks are heavy hail and damaging winds.
There will also be a separate risk for a few strong storms in the south during Tuesday’s day, including parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia.
“Our real focus day at this point is Wednesday. We could see a fairly widespread severe weather threat and possibly some high-end severe thunderstorms,” said Bunting.
Wednesday through Wednesday evenings are predicted to be the most active day this week in terms of severe thunderstorms. According to the SPC, there is currently an ‘increased risk’ for severe weather in eight states in the south. An ‘increased risk’ is a level 3 out of 5 in terms of its possible severity. This includes states such as Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama.
The SPC said an “Enhanced Risk” means that “numerous severe storms are possible,” and all threats are possible in Wednesday’s setup – tornadoes, large hail at least golf ball size, and intense winds of at least 58 mph.
A morning round of showers and possibly thunderstorms are currently predicted to pass through parts of the Gulf Coast states, but the main event will be ahead of the cold front from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Near this cold front is where the most intense and tornadic storms can be.
There could be “ a few waves of severe weather starting in the morning, then mid-day, and later in the evening as the cold front comes in, ” Holmes said when discussing the forecast from central Alabama, a region it currently is. in that “greater risk.”
The chance of multiple rounds of rain can lead to flooding in some locations. Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is predicted, with more than 3 to 4 inches falling in some locations.
On Thursday, the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms will shift to the east coast of the US. The region from Northern Florida to Southern Virginia is currently being monitored by the SPC for this risk, but it is too early to know the exact timing and details of the threat.
Heavy storms typical of the South
Heavy thunderstorms are not uncommon for this part of the country and during this time of the year. Historically, strong tornadoes were most common in northern Mississippi and Alabama in mid-March, closely following this week’s predicted storms.
“The details will play a major role in how bad it gets and where the storms hit. I think it’s important to know it’s a typically early season, in the southeastern US for severe weather, in that storms will move quickly they continue after dark, ‘said Bunting.
“A dangerous aspect of tornadoes in the South is that they can occur in the middle of the night when people are asleep, unlike Tornado Alley storms, which typically become less severe after sunset,” said CNN meteorologist Chad Myers.
“It is very important to heed the warning and not wait until you have visual confirmation (of the storm),” said Bunting. “This is the time for people to have a plan in different ways to get the warnings.”
