JACKSONVILLE, Florida – The Jacksonville Jaguars are just over a week away from having the franchise defender the team has been trying to find for two decades.
Trevor Lawrence is Andrew Luck’s (and perhaps Peyton Manning’s) best quarterback prospect, the fourth-best ESPN NFL analyst prospect prospect Mel Kiper Jr. has ever qualified and a guy who has lost just four games. as a holder of his first year of high school.
He is so good that he made Gil Brandt, who has designed nine future halls of fame in 29 seasons as vice president of Dallas Cowboys players, describe him as follows: “Trevor Lawrence is [John] Sporty Elway [and] Equipment accuracy. So I think you’ll get the best of both. “A franchise that hasn’t done very well since breaking the NFL’s best record in 1999 and losing 10 or more games in nine of its last 10 seasons is expected to take Lawrence with No. 1 in next week’s draft (April 29-May 1, ESPN / ESPN application) Jaguar fans – as well as those within the organization, especially in terms of tickets – are understandably ecstatic and hoping that Lawrence is the key to the franchise having finally been successful. supported and becoming an annual competitor in the playoffs.
But a little caution to dampen excessive expectations: Writing a first-choice quarterback is no guarantee of a future Super Bowl appearance. Or even a playoff appearance. And, in some cases, not even a season with a winning record.
What does history say?
Eight of the 25 defenders received in general since the AFL / NFL merger in 1970 have reached a Super Bowl with the team that drafted them, but only three have won a championship: Terry Bradshaw (Pittsburgh Steelers), Troy Aikman (Dallas Cowboys) and Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts). Three others – Jim Plunkett (Oakland / Los Angeles Raiders), John Elway (Denver Broncos) and Eli Manning (New York Giants) – won the Super Bowls with subsequent teams, with Elway and Manning being replaced shortly after. drafted.
Eli Manning, who was recruited by the San Diego Chargers in 2004, is the last defender to win the first overall standings to win a Super Bowl (2007 and 2011 seasons). Only two of the 11 defenders generally received from Eli Manning reached the Super Bowl – Cam Newton, with the Carolina Panthers, and Jared Goff, with the Los Angeles Rams, lost the game. Five of the 11 didn’t even make the playoffs. Bradshaw (four) and Aikman (three) are the only such defenders to have won more Super Bowls with the teams that drafted them. Eli Manning won two with the Giants, Elway won two with the Broncos and Plunkett won two with the Raiders. Somehow – maybe because of Tom Brady’s ridiculous seven rings (and counting?) – Super Bowl victories have become one of the defender’s final stats. This might be a little unfair, as even those multiple Super Bowl winners had a lot of help, whether they were Hall of Fame winners or runners, top-10 defenders or more All-Pro and Pro Bowlers players. .
• Bradshaw played with four other Hall of Famers on offense (center Mike Webster, defender Franco Harris and wide receivers Lynn Swann and John Stallworth), in addition to defending the Steel Curtain which included four more Hall of Famers.
• Aikman has played alongside wide receiver Michael Irvin and defender Emmitt Smith, both Hall of Famers, and Smith is the most important NFL player of all time. In addition, the Cowboys finished in the top 10 in scoring and total defense in each of the three years they won the Super Bowl.
• Elway had three other Hall of Famers attacked: striker Terrell Davis, tight end Shannon Sharpe and offensive striker Gary Zimmerman. The two winning teams in Elway’s Super Bowl also finished 11th or better in scoring defense and total defense.
• Peyton Manning’s defense ranked in the 1920s in the overall score and defense in the year he won the Super Bowl with Indianapolis, but defender Edgerrin James and wide receiver Marvin Harrison continued on the Hall of Fame.
• Eli Manning didn’t have a Hall of Famer with him on offense, nor did he have a statistically strong defense, but he did get help from two incredible throws and catches at the end of the game, as well as a bunch of steps that harassed him. Tom Brady in both Super Bowl victories.
• Plunkett won his Super Bowls with his third team, the Raiders, after failing to do so with the Patriots (who recruited him in 1971) and the 49ers. Those Raiders championship teams had a lot of stellar power. Offensively, they had four Hall of Famers: Marcus Allen, Art Shell offensive striker Dave Casper and goalkeeper Gene Upshaw. And they boasted three more on defense: defensive end Howie Long, defender Mike Haynes and defensive end Ted Hendricks.
The coach can’t be overlooked either. Here is the list of head coaches for the six overall defenders who have won the Super Bowls: Chuck Noll (Steelers), Jimmy Johnson and Barry Switzer (Cowboys), Tom Coughlin (Giants), Mike Shanahan (Broncos), Tony Dungy (Colts) and Tom Flores (Raiders). Noll, Johnson and Dungy are in the Hall of Fame. Flores will be included this summer.
Urban Meyer has not coached a low in the NFL, but is one of the best coaches in college football history, winning two national titles in Florida and one at Ohio State and participating in a combined 148-24 with five conference titles at these schools. That could ease some of the pressure on Lawrence.
“Obviously, whenever you’re the first general choice, you’ll feel some of that weight,” said Kirk Herbstreit, ESPN’s football analyst. “But insofar as this franchise needs to go in a different direction, I think the time is right for him, because you have a high-profile head coach who has a lot of people dissecting his every move every week. just like the defender.
“For example, if he were a Doug Marrone, it would all be Trevor Lawrence because of him [Marrone] he’s been there for a few years. “
The jags are on the clock
Where does that leave the Jaguars and Lawrence after 8:30 pm ET on April 29?
Then the real work begins. In the next few seasons, the Jaguars will have to build the list of more players who will become Pro Bowlers or All-Pro (and maybe even Hall of Famers). Even if Lawrence turns into the Elway-Manning combo, Brandt thinks he will need help. Mike Clay of ESPN has The Jags list ranks 31 of 32 NFL teams entering the draft.
The Jaguars have four players who have made a Pro Bowl on the list (defensive end Josh Allen, wide receiver DJ Chark Jr., defender Shaquill Griffin and defender Joe Schobert), but only Allen and Chark did it with the Jaguars. Returner Jamal Agnew is an All-Pro.
Even though the game’s greatest defenders had help, they were the key to winning those Super Bowls. This puts a lot of pressure and expectations on Lawrence, as every quarterback took first place overall. But maybe it’s a little more unfair in Jacksonville, because it seems that Lawrence is relying on the essential saving of the franchise. Jaguars always seem to be considered a risk of relocation, and owner Shad Khan is constantly looking for new local revenue streams, which included an annual home game in London from 2013 to ’19. That contract with the league expired after last season – when the Jaguars were to play two games there, which did not happen due to the pandemic – and the team would like to renew.
Sustained success and the fight for a championship would certainly generate more local income. If Lawrence becomes the next young QB in the league, that would be one of the keys to that.
“Every player [taken atop the draft], like you should have won three or four Super Bowls to figure out what it is, “said former Tampa Bay general manager Mark Dominik.” If he enters the postseason, he does his job. But Trevor is a rare guy. If you’ve been talking to a Clemson player for the last three years, he’s been praised over the years. I think it’s an opportunity for him to go to a team a little heavier than people realize and he has a chance to have an offensive impact. “High expectations are nothing new for Lawrence. He took over as a freshman and left, won two state titles at Cartersville High School, Georgia, was the nation’s No. 1 recruit and followed Deshaun Watson. the Clemson.
“I don’t think he’s going to see anything in Jacksonville that makes him feel a weight he hasn’t already felt, and to be honest with you, [it] that’s what he knows, “Herbstreit said.” He knows that weight to a different degree than when he was in middle school. I know this is probably his biggest strength: how he will cope with the pressure of trying to return a franchise. “
Historically, this is a difficult question, and some really good defenders have failed or failed to find sustained success. But there is a belief that Lawrence could become the third defender who was first drafted by Eli Manning in 2004 to reach a Super Bowl. “I don’t see any reason why he shouldn’t be a good defender,” Brandt said. “You don’t win as many high school championships as a real debutant in Georgia, where football is very good, and then you win [a championship] to Clemson if you have nothing to do for yourself. “