MOSCOW (AP) – Opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s return to Russia from Germany was marked by chaos and popular outrage and ended, almost predictably, with his arrest.
The January 17 flight from Berlin, where Navalny spent nearly five months recovering from a nervous breakdown, transported him and his wife, along with a group of journalists who documented the trip. But the plane was redirected from the intended airport in Moscow to another in the capital, which was seen as an apparent attempt to prevent a reception from the crowds waiting for him.
Authorities also arrested him immediately, causing outrage in the country and abroad. Some Western countries have threatened sanctions, and his team called for nationwide demonstrations on Saturday.
Navalny had prepared his own surprise for his return: a video shows that a magnificent palace was built for President Vladimir Putin on the Black Sea through an elaborate plan of corruption. His team posted it on YouTube on Tuesday and, in 48 hours, got over 42 million views.
Navalny faces years in prison because of a previous conviction he claims was politically motivated, while political commentators say there are no good options for the Kremlin.
The PA looks at its long confrontation with the authorities:
WHO IS ALEXA NAVALNY?
Navalny, 44, is an anti-corruption activist and a staunch critic of the Kremlin. He has survived many opposition figures and is not discouraged by the relentless attempts to stop his work.
He has published dozens of condemnatory reports revealing Putin’s corruption in Russia. He has been a galvanizing figure in mass protests, including unprecedented demonstrations in 2011-12 caused by reports of widespread rigging of parliamentary elections.
Navalny was convicted twice of criminal charges: embezzlement and subsequent fraud. He received suspended sentences of five years and three and a half years. He denounced the convictions as politically motivated, and the European Court of Human Rights challenged both convictions.
Navalny sought to challenge Putin in the 2018 election, but was banned from running after one of his convictions. However, he drew crowds of supporters almost everywhere he went in the country.
Frequently arrested, he served several terms in prison on charges related to the main protests. In 2017, an attacker threw a green antiseptic liquid on his face, affecting his vision. He was also hospitalized in 2019 after an alleged poisoning while in prison.
None of this stopped him. In August 2020, he fell ill while on a domestic flight in Siberia, and the pilot quickly landed in Omsk, where he was hospitalized. His supporters managed to fly him to Berlin, where he remained in a coma for more than two weeks and was diagnosed as being poisoned by a Soviet-era nervous agent – an accusation denied by the Kremlin.
After recovering, Navalny released a recording of a phone call that he said he had addressed to a man he claimed to be a member of the Russian Federal Security Service or the FSB, who allegedly poisoned him. The FSB rejected the registration as false, but it still shocked many in the country and abroad.
Navalny promised to return to Russia and continue his work, while authorities threatened to arrest him.
WHY DID NAVALNY RETURN AT ALL?
Navalny said he did not leave Russia by choice, but rather “arrived in Germany in an intensive care unit.” He said he never considered staying abroad.
“It doesn’t seem right to me that Alexei Navalny is calling for a revolution in Berlin,” he explained in an October interview, referring to the third person. “If I do something, I want to share the risks with the people who work in my office.”
Analysts say it would have been impossible for Navalny to remain relevant as an opposition leader outside of Russia. “Staying abroad, becoming a political emigrant, would mean the death of a public politician,” said Masha Lipman, an independent political analyst.
Nikolai Petrov, senior researcher at the Chatham House program for Russia and Eurasia, recalled his sentiment, saying: “Active, bright people who could initiate some real actions and participate in elections … while in country, once gone abroad, they become interrupted by the real connection with the people. ”
WHY IS NAVALNY IN PRISON NOW?
His suspended sentence from the 2014 conviction led to a probationary period that was to expire in December 2020. Authorities said Navalny had been subjected to regular in-person checks with law enforcement officers.
In the last days of Navalny’s probationary period, the Russian penitentiary service put him on a wanted list, accusing him of not appearing for these checks, including when he was convalescing in Germany. Officials asked the court to force him to serve the full sentence of 3 and a half years. Upon his return, Navalny was placed in custody for 30 days, with a hearing to review his sentence scheduled for February 2.
Earlier this month, the Russian Committee of Inquiry opened a new criminal investigation against him on charges of fraud, claiming that he had embezzled donations to his Anti-Corruption Foundation. If convicted, he could face up to 10 years in prison.
NAVALNY THREATENS KREMLIN?
Putin never calls his name Navalny, and the state-run media describes him as an unimportant blogger. But it has managed to expand its coverage outside of Moscow through its popular YouTube accounts, including this week’s one, which has filed allegations of huge Black Sea ownership.
Its national office infrastructure set up nationwide in 2017 helped challenge the government by mobilizing voters. In 2018, Navalny launched a project called Smart Voting, which is designed to promote candidates who are most likely to defeat those in Russia’s dominant Kremlin party.
In 2019, the project helped opposition candidates win 20 of the 45 seats on the Moscow city council, and last year’s regional elections saw United Russia lose a majority in the three-city legislature.
Navalny has promised to use the strategy during this year’s parliamentary elections, which will determine who controls the State Duma in 2024. Then Putin’s current term expires and he expects to be re-elected, thanks to last year’s constitutional reforms.
Analysts believe that Navalny is able to influence this key vote, reason enough to take it out of the picture.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
Analysts say Navalny’s return was a significant blow to Putin’s image and left the Kremlin with a dilemma.
Putin worked for most of his residence during the coronavirus outbreak, and the widespread perception that he remained away from the public does not compare well with Navalny’s bold return to the country where he was poisoned and arrested. , said Petrov of Chatham House.
“It doesn’t matter if people support Navalny or not; they see these two images, and Putin loses, “he said.
Commentators say there is no good choice for the Kremlin: Navalny’s imprisonment for a long time will make him a martyr and could lead to mass protests, while letting him go threatens parliamentary elections.
So far, repression has only helped Navalny, “and now even loyalist believers are, if not on his side, certainly not on the side of poisoners and persecutors,” Alexander Baunov of the Moscow Carnegie Center wrote in a statement. recent article.
All eyes are on what is happening at Saturday’s planned protests, Petrov said. In 2013, Navalny was quickly released from prison following a five-year sentence for embezzlement, after a large crowd gathered near the Kremlin.
Putin’s government has since become much tougher on dissent, so mass protests are unlikely to lead to Navalny’s immediate release, Petrov said. But the Kremlin still fears a harsh move could destabilize the situation, and the scale of the rallies could indicate how the public would react to Navalny, which will be closed for a long time.
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Associatya Press journalist Kostya Manenkov contributed.