Why China falls with Australia (and allies): QuickTake

Photographer: Cameron Spencer / Getty Images

China and Australia have engaged in a deepening political spit spilling over into trade. Even with some Chinese cities suffering power outages in December, Beijing authorities continued to block coal shipments from Australia, underlining their decision. Miners are not the only Down Under exporters who find it harder to access the largest market as tensions rise, and Australia does not feel the heat either. Other countries that have clashed with China, including Canada, Britain and India, have joined Australia in boosting co-operation and information exchange, while the new US president has promised a more united front against Beijing.

1. What did China-Australia spit about?

The ties have been in a downward spiral since 2018, when Australia accused China of interfering in his internal affairs, he passed a a new law against foreign interference and espionage. He also banned Huawei Technologies Co. built the country’s 5G mobile network, among the first countries to do so, citing national security. The atmosphere worsened in April after the government of Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an international investigation into the origins of the coronavirus that causes Covid-19. Then in November, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman posted on Twitter an edited image of an Australian soldier holding a knife to the neck of an Afghan child – a thorny reference to an ongoing war crime investigation. At a time when the Chinese “wolf diplomats are becoming more and more combative, Morrison’s the apology was rejected.

2. What was the economic impact?

Since China is Australia Top trading partner, by far, the impact was relatively small – although the individual sectors affected should be different. Since May, China has upset paralyzing tariffs on Australian barley; beef banned from four major meat processors; launched an anti-dumping probe on Australian wine which led to massive withdrawals; and told importers not to buy cotton and lobster anymore. Timber exports have been banned and at least $ 500 million worth of coal postponed for months outside Chinese ports – apparently one of the catalysts for disruptions. However, while the retaliation generated countless headlines and led some exporters to call for Morrison to give back, the combined impact in January was a loss of only 0.3% of Australian gross domestic product or A $ 6 billion (4 , $ 7 billion), according to government figures. Sales of iron ore, the largest cash cow in the country, are still booming.

3. Why is China doing this?

After months of uncertainty, the Chinese embassy published a list of 14 complaints in November. These included Australian decisions to reject Chinese investment for reasons of national security, providing funding for what it considers to be an anti-China think tank and “incessant lack of interference” in Chinese affairs regarding Taiwan Hong Kong and Xinjiang and in South China Sea. He also cited allegations of racist attacks against the Chinese people and accused the nation’s independent media of being antagonistic. But state-backed Chinese scholars have said that what is most angry with Beijing authorities is Morrison’s pressure to allow independent investigators to enter Wuhan, which he says is easy against Chinese sovereignty and government readiness. to echo and coordinate with the President of the United States. Donald Trump’s anti-China campaign. “Honestly, I have heard too many negative voices and seen various negative movements from Australia,” Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in December. The government of President Xi Jinping has a record of the use of trade as a shore, with South Korea, Japan and Taiwan have suffered reprisals in recent years.

4. Is there a way out for Australia?

Is not obvious. Chinese diplomats and state media said it is up to the Canberra government to resume ties, but did not publicly state what Australian measures would be sufficient to reverse trade retaliation. Chen Hong, director of the Australian Studies Center at Shanghai East China Normal University, said China is unlikely to back down until it sees substantial action, not just rhetoric. Morrison said he did not want to act on any of the 14 grievances; he and his ministers seem to be waiting for China to drop the temperature, so a new “the point of establishment ”in the relationship can be found. Meanwhile, at the end of the year, Australia said it will be official challenges China to the World Trade Organization.

5. Is Australia the only country targeted?