India is now consistently recording a six-figure increase in cases every day, while daily deaths also hover over 800 points.
This alarming increase in numbers – much more severe and rapid than that encountered during the first wave – puzzled everyone. Especially when it appeared that the country brought the situation under control only a few months ago.
But what led to this scary peak? Is it insensitivity by citizens? Are new and extremely infectious variants being played? Did we open too much too early?
This is what the government and experts think …
What the Center says
The center presented three main reasons for the continuous increase in the number: lack of adherence to Covid rules (wearing masks and social distancing), pandemic fatigue and lack of effective implementation of containment measures at ground level.
During his interaction with chief ministers, Prime Minister Narendra Modi mentioned how people, as well as governments, have become accustomed in their fight against the coronavirus, which has a long and fierce battle against the pandemic.
The government has repeatedly said that people do not follow Covid’s proper behavior in public places, which could be a major reason for the increase.
This is largely related to pandemic fatigue, as people feel demotivated by following recommended behaviors to protect themselves and others from the virus.
Experts weigh
Experts also believe that the lack of proper behavior Covid could be the main culprit behind the growth.
Virologists Shahid Jameel and T Jacob John agree that non-compliance with the Covid-19 protocol, including informing people, should continue with precautions even after they have been vaccinated, and a slow boost of vaccination is responsible for growth.
Speaking to PTI, Jameel said that the interaction between mutants and vaccines in the next few months will also decide the future of Covid in India and the world.
“The intensity of the growth also suggests that there were a huge number of susceptible people after the first wave,” the director of the Trivedi School of Biosciences at Ashoka University in Haryana told PTI.
The fact that people lowered their guard and did not follow Covid protocols after the first wave ended is “certainly a valid explanation” for the increase, Jameel said.
“Everything that opens up to pre-Covid levels and behavior that was no longer a risk aversion exposed the susceptible population in a big way. A new factor is mutants – both imported and domestic,” the eminent virologist added.
John, a professor of virology at Christian Medical College (CMC) in Tamil Nadu, agreed with Jameel, saying that non-compliance with the Covid-19 protocols is partly to blame for the new wave.
“The lowering of the guard was led by the central government and was followed by all political parties, all religious groups and the general public. Schools and colleges were opened without vaccinating all staff. This partly explains the second wave,” John told PTI.
“Wherever the infection has grown, stricter discipline should have been imposed, but with the election ahead, no leader wanted this. Pandemic elections had to be carefully planned,” the renowned virologist told PTI.
Dr. Gauri Agarwal, founder-director, Genestrings Diagnostic Center, told ANI that the violation of Covid rules is now widespread across the country.
“The main reason for the increase in cases is a rampant violation of the Covid protocols. Since the end of last year, we have seen how people have been negligent in complying with the protocols and this increase in cases is not a surprise.
“Variants also to blame”
Scientists also agreed that the variants are the other reason for the second wave, adding that it was too late for India to look for mutants.
“The two factors came together and we responded without a leader at the critical moment. The speed of spread in the second wave is twice as fast as in the first wave. Partly due to the variations and partly due to the lowering of the guard,” John explained.
Referring to a briefing by the Ministry of Health on March 24, Jameel mentioned that variants in the UK now occur in about 80% of cases in Punjab.
“A new double mutant has emerged in India and is reported in 15-20 per cent of the analyzed cases in Maharashtra. If this percentage increases further, it would be a clear indication of its role in the growth of Maharashtra,” the virologist said.
Dr. Aggarwal said a thorough understanding of the mutations was needed.
“The other factor (behind the growth) may be the different mutations in the virus, some of which could have been more transmissible than others. However, a deeper understanding of mutant strains and their virulence is needed by sequencing multiple genome samples, “he said.
In India, variants identified for the first time were found in the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil.
The government has said it is difficult to link the current growth to the mutant strains detected in the country. saying that the relationship between the two remains “speculative”.
In late March, the National Centers for Disease Control (NCDC) announced that a new variant had been identified in saliva samples taken from people in Maharashtra, Delhi and Punjab.
Genome sequencing by the Indian SARS-CoV-2 genomics consortium (INSACOG), a consortium of 10 laboratories in India, identified two important mutations in the so-called “double mutant” variant.
Explaining that the British variant is known to be about 50% more infectious, Jameel said that one of the two mutations of the double mutant was also found in California, USA, where it was associated with an increased transmission.
Vaccination unit
The experts also discussed the country’s vaccination action.
According to John, the government started too late and no vaccination targets have been set.
“India started the slow launch of vaccines in the third week of January, but it was first a symbolic reward for health workers who were vaccinated even when it was not needed – and we wasted a lot of vaccines,” he said. he.
“Was vaccine companies ordered to buy in advance to get production accelerated just last year before approvals were obtained?” John asked.
Jameel said there is “poor communication” by officials to people who have been vaccinated about how to proceed with precautions such as masks and social distancing. Describing India’s Covid-19 situation as “curious,” Jameel said the country was on a curve of daily infections when vaccinations began in mid-January.
“For various reasons, those eligible, including nurses and front-line workers, were reluctant to receive vaccines. Those over the age of 60 also did not show enough impatience, even though cases began to increase at the beginning. March.
“We are now on a very fast growth curve, with only 0.7% of Indians receiving both doses and only about 5% receiving one dose. This is too small to have an impact,” he added.
Dr. Gurpreet Sandhu, chairman of the Health and Pharmacy Council, told ANI that vaccination testing should be approached in India.
“Despite the best efforts of the authorities, the ongoing pandemic has highlighted some of the inequities in access to healthcare that continue to affect our country. In the meantime, hesitation in the vaccine in many parts of the country needs to be addressed. So we need to relaunch our efforts to spread the ‘good word’ about vaccines in every corner of the country, and this would help ensure health equity in the country. With the impetus for the ongoing vaccination, a certain amount of overconfidence and negligent behavior is evident, “he said.
However, India’s vaccination momentum is slowly rising as the country lowered the age limit to 45 last month.
The Union’s Ministry of Health said on Saturday that India had become the fastest-growing country to reach 100 million vaccinations in just 85 days.
But the immunization program still faces several challenges, such as lack of doses in several severely affected states and the problem of vaccine wastage.
(With entries from PTI, ANI)