The Coalition for Innovation in Outbreak Preparedness (CEPI), the Gavi Vaccine Alliance and the World Health Organization (WHO), together with UNICEF, have published the first provisional forecast of COVAX distribution, the mechanism for the equitable distribution of vaccines worldwide. According to preliminary figures, it is expected to deliver up to 337.2 million in the first half of the year.
The document includes the distribution of at least 240 million doses of the AstraZeneca / Oxford vaccine, which will be produced by the Serum Institute of India, and 96 million doses of the same vaccine under the advance purchase agreement between Gavi and AstraZeneca for the first and second quarter of 2021. Thus, a total of 336 million doses will be distributed in the first six months of the year to the 145 countries that are part of COVAX, but provided that the WHO authorizes it as an emergency use.
With regard to the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine, approved by the WHO on the emergency use list, COVAX currently anticipates that 1.2 million doses of this immunization will be available in the first quarter of 2021, although “subject to the completion of additional agreements ”. Starting in the second quarter, the 92 countries will have “additional volumes”, according to the advance purchase agreement signed between Gavi and Pfizer-BioNTech for a maximum of 40 million doses.
“The purpose of sharing intermediate distribution with countries, even in today’s highly dynamic global supply environment, is to provide governments and health systems with the information they need to plan their national immunization programs. The final allocations will be published. Gavi CEO Seth Berkley told a news conference that the full price of the operation “will be published in due course”.
Thus, COVAX’s goal, as Berkley reiterated, is to provide 2.3 billion doses by the end of the year, of which 1.8 billion would go to low-income countries at no cost to their governments.
This provisional distribution forecast describes the expected delivery of vaccine doses to all COVAX participants, with the exception of participants who have exercised their right of exclusion, who have not applied for vaccines or who have not yet been assigned.
Given the “dose limitation, the complexities of developing a vaccine that requires an ultra-cold chain and to ensure maximum impact on public health”, COVAX officials decided to limit the number of countries to the first deliveries of the Pfizer vaccine. -BioNTech to enable successful distribution and delivery.
At this time, total doses cover, on average, 3.3 percent of the total population of the 145 participants. “This is in line with COVAX’s goal of achieving a coverage of at least 3% of the population in all countries in the first half of the year, enough to protect the most vulnerable groups, such as health workers,” he said. he. Berkley added.
35 million doses for Latin America
Up to 36 Latin American countries and territories will receive more than 35 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine from the COVAX initiative, which could be received in the second half of February and throughout the second half. quarter of 2021.
Four Latin American countries, Bolivia, Colombia, El Salvador and Peru, have been selected for the “Primera Ola” pilot program and will receive 378,000 doses of Pfizer vaccines starting in mid-February.
Specifically, the countries are: Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Granada, Guatemala, Guyana , Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Dominican Republic, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay and Venezuela.
At a press conference on Monday, Bruce Aylward, senior adviser to the WHO, recalled that these are projections based on the pharmaceutical company’s estimates. “There are many warnings and considerations, as manufacturers may have smaller volumes than expected, there may be delays in granting emergency use permits and this may change,” he said.
“We are still waiting to see the actual projections of how many doses there will be in February and March, because you have seen that there are some technical problems in vaccine manufacturing at the moment and it may be less distributable,” added WHO Deputy Director Mariangela Simao