What you should know about the mutation in the UK and what it means for the end of the pandemic

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Andy Larsen answers the big questions about the new COVID-19 variant, including why we don’t know if it’s still here.

(Photo AP / Frank Augstein) Police are standing by an electronic notification informing of coronavirus testing to help eliminate a remnant of cargo, trucks and passengers outside the port of Dover in Dover, England, on Wednesday, December 23, 2020. Cargo from the UK and passengers with a negative virus test began arriving on French shores after France relaxed a two-day blockade on a new virus variant. The blockade had isolated Britain, blocked thousands of drivers and raised fears of missing out.

| December 27, 2020, 1:00 p.m.

Will 2020 have one last surprise in store for us?

Since the pandemic began, there has been some fear of a mutant strain of the game-changing virus. So when British scientists discovered a new variant called B.1.1.7 in December, we naturally wanted to find out if our fears had come true.

After a few weeks of study, we gained real knowledge about what is happening here – where our fears were realized and where they did not come true. Both the science of the variant and its potential consequences are very interesting, so let’s break down the current state of research. But first, let me answer the question I know is in front of your mind. You are here? Is it in the United States or even in Utah? The quick answer is that we don’t know, keep reading and I’ll explain why.

How did I discover the new variant?

In Kent County in the south-east of England, scientists were trying to figure out what was behind an unexpected rise in infections. They genetically sequenced samples from some patients and found something they did not expect – a variant of coronavirus that was significantly different from the one that usually spreads in the area.

In particular, there were 17 mutations in this variant. It is a very large number, because the virus generally detects a mutation or two a month.

And it looks like the viral changes could be significant. Often, mutations don’t really do anything – like a sentence with a typo, the meaning of the genetic language remains the same even with a different letter or two. The body reads the sentence normally anyway.

But in this version, typos seem to really matter. One of the mutations was conjectured to facilitate the binding of the virus to human cells. Another mutation can help the virus sometimes bypass the human immune response.

Lord. If the virus usually receives one or two mutations per month, how did this variant get 17 changes without us noticing?

The main hypothesis is that it came from an individual’s long battle with the coronavirus. In some unusual cases that have lasted for months, the virus has a chance to replicate so many times that mutations can occur at an accelerated rate. This is especially true when the virus needs to avoid all kinds of medically induced obstacles, from drug remission to plasma therapy.
Take this example of a 45-year-old man who fought the coronavirus for five months before succumbing to the disease. Scientists sequenced his virus during his illness and found numerous mutations.

A 45-year-old man has seen repeated mutations in his coronavirus during a 5-month battle with the disease.

Most of the time, these viral changes die with the individual involved. After all, the long-term patient with COVID-19 is usually in a hospital, minimizing the chances of giving it to someone else. In this case, however, it seems that the option has escaped the world.

What is the difference between a variant and a strain?

It should be noted that we are not dealing with a new “strain” of coronavirus, but with a new “variant”. In essence, think of it this way: The SARS-CoV-2 that caused this pandemic is a different strain from the SARS-CoV-1 virus that caused the 2003 pandemic. The level of mutation we see in this virus in the UK is not it is far from significant enough to rise to the term “strain”.

Does this variant make the coronavirus more contagious?

We still realize that. To do this, we compare how quickly the new variant spreads compared to other variants in the UK

In particular, a pre-printed study released on Wednesday estimates that this version could be 56% more transmissible. Another estimate said the variant could be 70% more transmissible. Let’s say the first ones were true. In this case, you can multiply the current contagious number R0 – the measure of the number of people infected by the ordinary person with coronavirus – by 1.56.

Regardless of the number, keep in mind that these estimates are based on circumstantial evidence. What is happening in the UK may be due to other factors: What happens if the variant was first spread to a very socially or negligent group of people? This may be enough to explain the differences.

But wait! We also found that people with the variant also have, on average, higher viral loads in their throats. This could explain, in part, why we see the spread more: those with the variant are able to spread more virus particles around than usual.

So, although we do not know for sure, we have a proposed biological mechanism for increasing the contagion, an epidemiological mechanism for increasing the contagion and, when we count cases, we see an increased contagion. I think the conclusion that the variant is more contagious is relatively safe, although we will want to do more research to identify exactly how much more contagious.

Does the variant cause more severe diseases?

We have no evidence at this time. According to the European version of our Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, no higher mortality or poorer clinical results were reported.

However, officials offer a limitation: most people who have been diagnosed with coronavirus infections are under 60 years old. It’s good that we don’t see that this variant kills a lot of young people, but we don’t really know what happens to the elderly.

It is worth remembering, however, that viruses usually evolve to become more contagious and less severe. As Derek Lowe of science says, “Remember, it’s not a virus’s job to make people sick: it’s a virus’s job to make more of a virus. In general, this is generally better served by stems that are easier to catch and do not break into their hosts too violently. “

Is the new variant in the USA?

I did not find it, but this is due to a curious difference in how many coronavirus samples we sequenced in our country compared to the United Kingdom. As of Wednesday, the United States had sequenced 37 coronavirus samples throughout December. In the UK, researchers sequenced 3,774 samples in the same time frame.

Epidemiologist Trevor Bedford analyzes the number of time-sequenced specimens in the United Kingdom compared to the United States (Source: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1341806686965665792)

Given that about 60% of cases in London are the new variant right now, it seems that they would probably have slipped into the US at some point, but we just don’t know if it has or where it is. The US really needs to increase the speed and amount of coronavirus sequencing.

Will the vaccines work on the new variant?

We believe that vaccines will work almost certainly, but we are checking to make sure.

It is reasonable to be a little scared – after all, many of the mutations are in the section of the genetic code that creates the top protein of the virus, which happens to be the target part of our vaccines. If that peak changed too radically, vaccines could become ineffective.

But if that were the case, the option would probably avoid the antibodies that are created when people receive the coronavirus. This would mean that people who were already ill could get sick again. But in England, they see no reinfections. In short, natural antibodies still work, so there is good reason to believe that vaccine antibodies will work.

There is a chance that the vaccine will not be as effective in this variant as others, but we are talking about percentage points, not failure that changes the game. Both Moderna and Pfizer say their scientists will conduct experiments to find out more.

What impact will the variant have on the late stages of the pandemic?

Well, it could wreak havoc.

In America, most states have imposed limited restrictions on coronavirus because they have been shown to be sufficient to prevent the virus from spiraling out of control, while allowing people to live their daily lives. As a result, most of America sees an effective contagion number around 1 – which means that each infected person gets infected with each other, so the cases increase or decrease quite slowly. The Utah River is currently estimated at 1.01, for example.

Rt.live breakdown of the effective contagion rate – Rt – in the 50 US states since December 24.

But if the new variant were to start spreading in the US and doing so faster than we can vaccinate people, our current isolation measures would not be enough. Our R of 1 would turn into an R of 1.56 or so and we would see that the cases start to double in a few weeks. Without change, they would continue to grow exponentially and our hospitals would be outdated.

That’s why the UK is blocking people again, asking them to stay home, except for urgent travel, medical appointments and outdoor exercise. Most flights were canceled, restaurants closed and so on.

Our hope is that Britain’s isolation efforts have been somewhat successful and that we can extend vaccinations in time to defeat the new variant. Giving at least 60% of people a 90% effective vaccine is a really effective way to reduce coronavirus in a community.

But the variant has the potential to increase the pressure of the vaccination race, there is no doubt. It has always been important to give doses to as many people as possible as soon as possible, but especially in the case of a changing coronavirus, which is particularly contagious.

Andy Larsen is a data columnist. He is also one of the Utah Jazz rhythm writers at The Salt Lake Tribune. You can reach him at [email protected].

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