SALT LAKE CITY – Public health experts are once again confronted with the unknown as another major holiday approaches during the COVID-19 pandemic.
This is because the holidays have led to increases in new cases of COVID-19 since the pandemic began. This was true again after Thanksgiving in Utah, but he never feared the swelling that public health officials feared.
Health experts hope for a similar result after Christmas and New Year end the major holiday season.
“We are certainly heading in the right direction, with low numbers, but our big hurdle coming right now is the Christmas / New Year celebration” and its impact on the situation of COVID-19, Dr. Eddie Stenehjem, an infectious disease doctor for Intermountain Healthcare said in a virtual question and answer session on Wednesday.
“The fingers went through Utah coming together as a community, as we did on Thanksgiving,” he added. “I didn’t see that big increase that I was expecting because Utahns took this seriously. I hope we’ll see the same thing this Christmas.”
The COVID-19 situation in Utah is heading for Christmas, New Year’s Eve
When health officials said the post-Thanksgiving peak was not as bad as it feared, it was because the new cases did not raise the state’s seven-day average of new cases to unprecedented levels. There were still new cases and hospitalizations as a result of Thanksgiving meetings.
So far, the continuous average of 7 days of cases in Utah has reached a maximum of 3,364.7 cases per day on November 22 – four days before Thanksgiving. The average fell to 2,296.9 cases per day on November 30 and then rose back to 3,124.6 new cases per day on December 6, falling within the post-holiday incubation period. It has been steadily declining since then. The seven-day average in Utah is 2,419.3 cases a day, starting Wednesday’s health department update.
The decline is a welcome sight, but extensive data are why health experts are cautious with their optimism. For example, testing is still low compared to pre-Thanksgiving levels, and the test positivity rate remains at 23.7% until December 17th. The latter is a sign that COVID-19 is likely to be widely underestimated in the state.
At the same time, hospitals are still full of rates that exceed state targets. The total number of people hospitalized because of COVID-19 is 560. The use of intensive care units has been 92% at referral hospitals in Utah and 90% statewide as of Wednesday, according to the state health department. The state warning threshold for ICUs is 72% and the target use threshold is 85%. It is a situation that can only improve if new case counting trends continue to decline.
“Yes, the number of cases is low – a very encouraging sign – and we have other indicators that show that we do have a low community transmission … but our test volumes are not as high as our percentage could be. testing is high, which means we’re probably missing a lot of active cases that aren’t being tested, “Stenehjem said.
“What we would have ideally seen is that our number (COVID-19) would be really low before the holidays and the New Year, which would then reduce any risk of transmission among families who gather. although the numbers (new case) are low, “he added.
Stenehjem said he anticipates that testing for COVID-19 will increase again in early 2021 as a result of rapid testing of the Utah student program and progress in testing options, such as home testing kits.
What is recommended to stay safe for the holidays
Many of the public health recommendations for Christmas and New Year are similar to the recommendations for Thanksgiving. When analyzing data on the number of post-Thanksgiving COVID-19 cases in Utah, Stenehjem said he felt many people took the advice seriously and that’s why the post-holiday tip wasn’t as bad as he feared .
“I hope this will happen again tomorrow for Christmas Eve and the next day for Christmas and also for New Year’s Eve,” he said.
Therefore, the way meetings are handled could be the biggest factor in whether the post-Christmas and post-New Year COVID-19 peaks in Utah do not get as severe as they feared.
Stenehjem said once again that the best advice would be for Utahns to avoid meetings between different households, which includes extended families.
If Utahns choose to have multi-household assemblies, it is encouraged that these assemblies be small and consider high-risk contacts. Just because a meeting does not include people who are considered at high risk for severe COVID-19 infection does not mean that participants will not be in contact with a high-risk person during the time after the meeting.
“If you choose to gather, you are very careful about who you gather with, about the small number, and you don’t gather with high-risk people or exposure to high-risk people,” Stenehjem said. “Really think about who you gather with. What is their risk profile? What is the risk for them or for you if you get infected? And who do they go home to? And who could they potentially infect if they get infected at your meeting? “
Stenehjem added that hospitals are not immune to the need to break with the traditions of this holiday season. For example, holiday potluck parties are an essential element for the doctors and nurses they work with, but they have been canceled this year.
“This is not something we can do safely right now,” he said, adding that they replaced him with an ugly Christmas sweater competition to ease the mood in a difficult time for hospital staff.
In the meantime, it is clear that there is still a decent risk of COVID-19 spreading to the assembly. As of Wednesday, most Utah counties had a 20-30% chance of COVID-19 exposure during a gathering of at least 10 people, according to Georgia Tech COVID-19 Event Risk Management Tool. The risk tool for events was created to estimate how likely a person will be in contact with at least one other person with COVID-19 at a meeting based on the county population, data on the number of COVID-19 cases and taking into account subreportarea.
The risk in the highly populated Wasatch Front counties (Davis, Salt Lake, Utah and Weber) ranged from 30% in Salt Lake County to 36% in Utah County. Nationally, Daggett County had the lowest risk at less than 1%; Millard County had the highest risk at 46%, according to the model.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has once again offered holiday recommendations for all December holidays leading up to the New Year. CDC recommendations include:
- Organize religious ceremonies practically if possible
- Decorate a holiday scene to share the holiday spirit of your home. It is recommended to stay at home for family photos.
- Drive or walk through holiday decorations to view them “from a safe distance”
- Throw away any holiday party online, not in person. People can share a holiday playlist for which participants can listen together or even open gifts together online.
- Organize a snowman or snow angel contest with neighbors or friends in the community, as long as each household stays at least 6 meters away.
- Contact your local community service organization and find out how to give back. Officials advise people to ask about security measures in advance or to see if there are ways to volunteer through “virtual opportunities”.
- Schedule “virtual visits” to the North Pole or make any visits to Santa Claus at a distance of at least 6 meters, wearing a mask.
- If you are organizing a personal party, try to limit the number of guests and organize a “small outdoor party” with family and friends living in the same community. It is recommended that people wear masks both indoors and outdoors and that shouts and songs be limited to any celebration or gathering that involves multiple households.
The full list of agency recommendations on COVID-19 can be found here.
Related stories
Carter Williams