What history tells us happens with the S&P 500 after a strong end-of-year rally, says strategist

US equities are set to start the new year positively, after ending a volatile 2020 with a new high.

Investors seem to be once again giving up on the worsening image of COVID-19, focusing instead on vaccine launches around the world. Hospitalizations in the US reached a record 125,544 on Sunday, according to the COVID-19 follow-up project, while the UK has now registered 50,000 new cases for six consecutive days, with tougher restrictions to be announced.

However, the UK began launching the vaccine from drug company AstraZeneca and Oxford University on Monday, boosting sentiment. FTSE 100 UKX,
+ 2.66%
led the way, rising by 2.5% as higher prices for GC00 metals,
+ 2.23%

HG00,
+ 2.13%

SI00,
+ 3.84%
helped the mining sector.

After rallies in late 2020, with record highs for the Dow and the S&P 500, the three major US stock market benchmarks were set to win on the first trading day of the new year.

In ours call of the dayLPL financial market strategist Ryan Detrick said the strong rally at the end of 2020 could have “smiling bulls” in 2021.

S&P 500 SPX,
+ 0.64%
grew by more than 14% in November and December, ending a tumultuous year at a new all-time high of 3,756.07 – gaining 16.3% in 2020. Detrick said a gain of 10% or more in the last two months of The year led to the S&P 500 higher the following year each time since World War II. “In fact, January was also bigger every time, so maybe this strong rally is an indication of higher prices. [2021]. ”

On the previous five occasions, the index rose by more than 10% in November and December – 1954, 1962, 1970, 1985 and 1998 – the S&P 500 gained an average of more than 18% the following year. The index also rose in all five January, rising by an average of 3%.

The chart below shows what a typical year looks like after a rally of 10% or more in November / December. “Once again, strong returns are the historic game,” Detrick added.

Source: LPL Research, FactSet

markets

US YM00 futures,
+ 0.47%

ES00,
+ 0.47%

NQ00,
+ 0.52%
showed above early Monday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,
+ 0.65%
set for a gain of 150 points at the opening. European stocks started the year in first place, supported by the launch of vaccines across the continent. Asian markets have also grown to start the new year amid global optimism. DXY US Dollar Index,
-0.51%
decreased by 0.3% to 89.51 – the lowest level since April 2018.

Buzz

Democratic lawmakers on Sunday called for swift and serious action against President Donald Trump after he was heard in an audio tape pressed on Georgia’s Republican secretary of state to “find” more votes to reverse the loss of state elections.

Preliminary elections for two seats in the US Senate in Georgia will be held on Tuesday, which will decide whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate.

Teledyne Technologies TDY Industrial Conglomerate,
+ 0.23%
stated that it had agreed to buy the thermal chamber supplier Flir Systems FLIR,
+ 0.05%
in a cash and stock transaction valued at about $ 8 billion.

The shares of the British gambling company have ENT,
+ 29.38%,
the former GVC Holdings, increased by 26% on Monday, after rejecting a proposed offer of 1,383 pence per share from MGM Resorts MGM,
+ 1.03%
which valued the company at 8.09 billion pounds ($ 11.06 billion).

Bitcoin BTCUSD,
-7.65%
it rose to a record $ 34,000 over the weekend, before falling 11% early Monday to $ 29,800.

A British judge ruled Monday that Julian Assange, founder and publisher of WikiLeaks, should not be extradited to the United States

Centene Corp. Medical Insurer CNC
+ 1.88%
said Monday it had agreed to acquire Magellan Health Inc. MGLN,
+ 0.58%
for $ 95 per share, in a transaction worth $ 2.2 billion.

Carl Icahn has sold more than half of his stake in Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. HLF,
+ 0.54%
and resigns from the board of directors of the nutritional supplements company, taking a step back from a long-term investment that he fiercely defended against attack by rival activist investor William Ackman.

Random readings

The population of South Korea is falling for the first time in its history.

Swan rescued after hours stuck on the frozen lake.

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