For most of the existence of tennis, winning even a single Grand Slam tournament meant asserting his career.
From 1990 to ’98, 16 different players won a major, six for the first and only time. If there was an overall narrative involved, it probably had to do with reaching number 1 in the ATP rankings.
A single Slam victory led to Thomas Muster’s rise to No. 1 in early 1996, as he did for Carlos Moya in 1999. Yevgeny Kafelnikov and Patrick Rafter reached the summit in 1999, as did Lleyton Hewitt. Gustavo Kuerten and Marat Safin. in the years that followed. At the end of 2003, it was Andy Roddick’s turn to win a Slam (US Open) and finish 1st.
Since 2004, however, only four men have ranked 1st: Roger Federer (310 weeks), Novak Djokovic (308), Rafael Nadal (209) and Andy Murray (41). The top three on this list have also won 57 of the last 69 slams, and the only narrative that has mattered in the last decade has been: Who will finish with the most Slam titles? Nadal tied Federer at the age of 20 with his victory at the end of 2020 at the French Open, and Djokovic, at the age of 17, has been spinning in both for some time.
This makes every loss remarkable, especially with all three in the advanced stages of their respective careers (Federer is 39, Nadal 34, Djokovic 33). When Djokovic was expelled from the US Open last fall for accidentally hitting a linebacker with a ball, it was a great missed opportunity to win a Nadal title and two Federer titles; Nadal then caught another when he swept Djokovic to Paris.
Nadal missed his own opportunity on Wednesday in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open, when he threw only his second advantage in two sets at a Slam and lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas 3-6, 2-6, 7-6, 6-4, 7-5.
This was a massive moment for the 22-year-old Tsitsipas, who has now overcome the disadvantages of two sets in consecutive Slams and reached the third major semifinal, the second in a row. It was only his second victory over a top 10 player in a Slam. But considering the greatest tennis narrative, we have to ask ourselves what this does in the career Slams race.
Titles on difficult terrain are bonus points for Nadal
Nadal is the greatest clay court player of all time; there is no doubt. And he is a wonderful man of all time overall because his skill is not limited to clay – he won five Slams and two Wimbledons.
However, his 13 French Open titles are obviously the key to his position in the race for major titles; has won only two slams outside of Paris in the last seven years (2017 and 2019 US Open). If he finishes at the top, it will be because of Roland Garros and, as he proved last autumn, his dominance in Paris is far from over. He won four consecutive French openings and did not miss a set on the road to last year’s championship.
Obviously, a title in Melbourne would have benefited Nadal a lot and offering an advantage in two sets is only expensive. But this is not his event.
The Australian Open means much more to Djokovic than to Nadal
Perhaps the biggest turn of the plot in pursuing Djokovic happened when it became the best lawn in the world; Despite the generic assumptions we might make about a player who defends so well and has a great attacking game, but not an elite one – that it must be more suitable for hard or clay courts than grass – won four of the last six Wimbledon, staring deeply at opponents, serving better and forcing plenty of mistakes. He will be the favorite in London when the tournament resumes this summer.
However, Melbourne is for Djokovic what Paris is for Nadal. He has won eight Australian Open titles, including seven of the last 10. If we set the possible over / under for Slam titles at 22 or 23, that means he needs five or six more. Since almost half of his 17 titles came to Australia, you think that at least two future titles, maybe three, will have to come from there.
Djokovic reached the semifinals with a four-set quarterfinal victory over Alexander Zverev, but his form has not been top notch in these two weeks. He lost a set to Frances Tiafoe in the second round, then suffered a mysterious injury to Taylor Fritz in the third round. He survived that match in five sets before defeating Milos Raonic and Zverev each in four, but while these results would be incredible for almost any player alive, it is clear that Djokovic is not fully.
Despite the injury, Caesars of William Hill lists Djokovic’s betting odds at -1450 (the equivalent of 94% chances of winning) against the qualifier and the story of Cinderella Aslan Karatsev in the semifinals. But even if we assume that he is advancing – although we know that the chances have not been applied in any way in Karatsev’s race so far – he will have to face Tsitsipas or Daniil Medvedev in the final.
Medvedev is a three-time Slam semifinalist on difficult terrain and nearly knocked Nadal down in the 2019 US Open final; Tennis Abstract’s Elo rankings rank him as the second hardest player in the world. Even if a wounded Djokovic is better than almost everyone on this surface, is he still better than Medvedev?
This is a huge moment for the next generation of tennis
If “Who will end up with the most slaps?” was the biggest question in men’s tennis in the last decade, then “When will the young generation surpass the big three?” is the second largest. We’ve been asking for it for a while.
The Raonic-Kei Nishikori-Grigor Dimitrov generation has been slowed by injuries and missed opportunities and there is an interesting dichotomy in the current top 12 of the ATP: there are four players aged 33 or older, six aged 25 or younger and only two of them (Dominic Thiem and Diego Schwartzman).
The 25-year-old group and under showed massive potential; we are just waiting for a discovery. The top three in this group – Medvedev, Tsitsipas and Zverev – combined to defeat Djokovic seven times, Federer six times and Nadal five times, but before Tsitsipas’ quarter-finals win Nadal, they they were only 1-7 against the Big Three in the Slams. It’s 2-7 now.
We often overestimate the intangible and immeasurable effects in sports (most of the most important things are really measurable), but it is obvious how much confidence and faith can play in an individual sport like tennis. Tsitsipas not only returned to defeat Nadal in five sets, but even made Nadal look his age in the process. Nadal was clearly the most tired player at the end of the match.
The images provided by this win could bring a domino effect. If the victory is combined with a Medvedev or Tsitsipas title, it could reshape not only the way we look at the 2021 tournament, but also the way we look at the race for career titles. Suddenly, the Big Three could see fewer great opportunities in general and that over / under 22 or 23 titles could become 21.
Or, hey, maybe Djokovic dominates Tsitsipas / Medvedev in the final, and this becomes a new false start for the next generation. Regardless, Tsitsipas’ return makes the last three Australian Open men’s matches even more interesting than they already were.