Another set of stock records looks like a high order for Tuesday, with futures contracts slowing down after stimulating hopes and rising oil prices sent stocks up to start the week.
While the momentum has slowed slightly, this largely unstoppable market generally leaves few in the way of new highs. So, a refreshing break?
As for what could derail the stock market, ours call of the day from global stock strategist Andrew Garthwaite and a team from Credit Suisse, offers a short list of red and yellow flags.
“We remained overweight actions based on the support policy, a high ERP [equity risk premium], the beginning of a bond exchange for shares and a huge excess of liquidity, while the tactical indicators do not send a sell signal yet ”, say strategies.
For example, they are not too worried about the “exuberance” of the market, right now, because retail flows are said to be off and there is low systemic risk or selling signals from other indicators.
Regarding their worries:
-
Disappointing growth in Europe – medium and rising risk. A slow launch of the COVID-19 vaccine and plans for advancement and a fiscal policy that seem less generous than the first time are worrying. Unlike the US, European banks are currently providing corporate loans and bankruptcies are being suppressed by moratoriums. “We consider it a matter of European equity, not global equity, with European GDP [gross domestic product] being about 16% of global GDP – although a tactically stronger USD could be a consequence “, says the team.
-
Less pervasive federal reserve – high risk in the second half of 2021. This is amid the potential for stronger US growth amid lighter fiscal policy, renewed pandemic demand and economic reopening. “If this happens at a time when inflation is rising to 2.5%, wage growth is higher than expected and there are concerns about asset bubbles, the Fed could become less corrupt,” Garthwaite said. and the team. Also, track 10-year Treasury yields TMUBMUSD10Y,
1.155%
support 1.7% or a sharp rise in TIPS (inflation-protected government securities) yields, they say. -
China’s slowdown – low risk to the environment. The recent tightening of policies is no exaggeration, but China’s current account could deteriorate further as the global economy reopens. Pay attention to real estate market indicators, some of which indicate a sudden slowdown. If this happens, “the excess leverage would start to fall apart,” says Credit Suisse.
Elsewhere: “We see the possibility that vaccines will not work against low-risk mutations, especially since the changes can be launched in 3-6 months. Other low-risk events include the fiscal stalemate in the US Senate and policy mistakes (except for the UK fiscal policy and the disclosure of French forces, which we see as a higher risk), ”the team says.
Read: The stock market echoes 2009-10 – and that means a retreat could be close, analysts warn
The markets
ES00 futures,
YM00,
NQ00,
are modestly smaller, with SXXP European shares,
in red. Asian markets rose after a record session on Wall Street. Brent Oil BRNJ21,
eliminates fresh highs of over $ 61 a barrel.
Bitcoin BTCUSD,
I just kept going up, reaching $ 48,000 at one point, after electric car maker Tesla TSLA,
revealed a $ 1.5 billion investment in cryptocurrency and signaled that it would accept bitcoin as future payments.
The tweet
Meanwhile, it seems that Tesla has not been so generous with employee retirement plans.
Buzz
Canadian Cannabis Company Canopy CGC,
reported a higher-than-expected loss, but revenues exceeded estimates and stocks are rising. Materials and Chemicals Giant DuPont DD,
reported profit and sales that exceeded forecasts. Twitter TWTR social messaging service,
(see preview) and the Cisco CSCO technology conglomerate,
will report after closing.
Democrats on Monday unveiled plans to raise more money for families, boosting the current $ 1,000 children’s tax credit for a year to $ 3,000 and slightly higher for families with younger children.
The parents of a Robinhood trader who died by suicide when faced with a massive negative balance sued the online broker for illicit death.
A confidence index in small businesses shows that optimism has reached its lowest level since the pandemic began last spring. Jobs are also ahead.
The World Health Organization says COVID-19 probably jumped from an animal to a human and not from a Chinese laboratory.
The process of ousting former President Donald Trump begins on Tuesday.
Random readings
Free ice cream and vaccines with Russian vaccine COVID-19? Another “Simpson” prediction comes true.
A Redeemer asks how everyone copes with pandemic depression, exhaustion and fatigue; it receives more than 3,000 largely miserable responses.
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