Gal Gadot plays the role of the Wonder Woman in “The Wonder Woman 1984”.
Warner Bros.
Can a nostalgic superhero movie persuade people to leave their couches and head to the movies? “Wonder Woman 1984” tries to answer this question.
Cinema owners are hopeful that the sequel to “The Wonderful Woman,” which will arrive on Christmas Day, will draw a key demographic back to cinemas, despite the continuing rise in coronavirus cases.
But the ongoing pandemic is not their only concern. On the same day that “Wonder Woman 1984” debuts on the big screen, it will also be available to stream on HBO Max.
“Wonder Woman 1984 is the first test of a simultaneous large / small screen launch of a title of this magnitude,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior analyst at Comscore.
Box office analysts have mixed opinions about how well the film will perform at the internal box office. “Wonder Woman 1984” had a poor performance at the end of last week at its international debut, accumulating about $ 38.5 million. This was well below the $ 60 million the industry had forecast.
The film could face even more difficulties in the US and Canada, given that only about 34% of theaters are open. There are about 2,000 theaters, Comscore reports.
“It’s difficult to put a number on its possible opening weekend because there isn’t really a directly comparable launch scenario,” Dergarabedian said. And the biggest opening weekend since the beginning of mid-March of the closing of the cinema pandemic has not even eclipsed. the $ 10 million mark. “
He refers to “The Croods: A New Age”, an animated film from Dreamworks, which debuted on Thanksgiving. It had the largest opening of any film released during the pandemic, with $ 9.7 million. For the entire five-day Thanksgiving weekend, he raised $ 14.2 million.
However, there is a renewed application for “Wonder Woman 1984”. This could persuade moviegoers to head to the big screen instead of watching the movie at home.
“We see ‘Wonder Woman 1984’ leading the strongest pre-ticket sales of any pandemic film so far, but I’m cautiously leaning to over $ 10 million for the weekend, given the number of theater closures, public caution and a simultaneous stream release, “said Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at Boxoffice.com.” A figure closer to $ 15 million could be achievable, but there is a great deal of unpredictability that needs to be considered now. “
Robbins said premium screens like IMAX and Dolby Cinema will likely be some of the top performing venues for the sequel, as they offer superior sound and image. Private party rentals, where moviegoers rent a theater for a group of up to 20 friends and family members, will also generate a healthy share of the box office.
In the last five years, the Christmas box office has generated at least $ 80 million for a single day. This figure will not be seen this year, analysts agree.
In non-pandemic times, “Wonder Woman 1984” could have opened between $ 100 million and $ 150 million, said Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter. With so many theaters closed, the coronavirus threat and the availability of the movie on HBO Max, Pachter also predicted the opening of between 15 and 25 million dollars.
“While many will choose to stay home this holiday and watch the film, fans and families in markets where they are safe and able to do so could prove to be relatively fair, although they would be far behind. of what would usually be for a successful superhero opening the Christmas sequel, “Robbins said.
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC. NBCUniversal owns Dreamworks Animation.