Joe Douglas can borrow the title for this offseason Jets from NBA superstar LeBron James. This is the decision for Douglas.
The 44-year-old general manager will not make his announcement on a special prime-time television, but he must figure out who will be his defender for 2021 and possibly after, in the coming weeks. Will Douglas stay with Sam Darnold for the fourth season, hoping that a new coach and a better cast will help him improve? Will he write a No. 2 quarterback in general and change Darnold? The decision comes with so many layers and can be viewed in so many ways that it sets the most fascinating call for an executive and a franchise in the recent history of sports in New York.
“It’s the biggest decision of his career,” said former NFL defender and ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky. “It’s probably the Jets’ biggest decision in 40 years, I don’t know. It’s huge. ”
You misunderstand this and the Jets will be looking for a new GM in a few years. Understand this and Douglas will be about to bring the Jets back from the wilderness in which they have wandered in the last decade.
The decision has several layers to examine. For our purposes, let’s leave aside the possibility of trading for the Texan star Deshaun Watson, which at this moment still seems unlikely. Let’s focus on Darnold versus college defenders led by BYU’s Zach Wilson.
The Darnold Debate
The Jets designed Darnold No. 3 overall in 2018, hoping to find their franchise defender. Instead, he was a confused player. There are moments of brilliance interspersed with several plays that make you scratch your head. Injuries and illness cost him 10 games and prevented him from playing for an entire season.
The debate that is now raging on talk radio and Twitter Jets about Darnold is also taking place within the organization. There are some who see an untapped potential that has been held back by a poor cast around. Others are ready to move on.
It is impossible to argue Darnold using statistics. Since 2018, there have been 42 defenders who have thrown at least 500 passes. Darnold’s QB rating of 78.6 is 41 points out of 42. Only Josh Rosen’s 63.5 is lower. Darnold has been intercepted 39 times, the fifth pick in three years.
On the other side of the debate, people point out that Darnold will not turn 24 by June and has not been offered much help in his career. Robert Saleh would be the third head coach in the last four years. Mike LaFleur would be his third offensive coordinator. The franchise has been volatile since Darnold arrived. The GM who recruited him, Mike Maccagnan, was fired after Darnold’s first season.
Then there’s the talent around it – or the lack of it. Darnold played with a constantly changing cast of players. This was the number of different players he played with in each offensive position: 15 wide receivers, nine tight ends, seven running backs, seven left guards, five straight guards, five straight attacks, four centers and four left attacks. Of the 56 players, none made a Pro Bowl like Jet.
Darnold’s training is also in question. Former head coach Adam Gase’s offense ended last time in the NFL in total courts in each of the past two years. Gase, who was hired to bring out the best in Darnold, admitted he failed in the foundation defense. Darnold had a rating of 100 passers or higher in seven games in his career. Four of them came in his debut season, three in 2019 and none last year because he seemed to be regressing.
This leads to the question of how much better Darnold can be in the LaFleur offense and whether Douglas can improve the offense through this year’s free agency and project, which would give people pro-Darnold hope.
“I think he was put in a difficult situation at times,” said Matt Bowen, who played seven seasons in the NFL and is now an ESPN analyst. “When you have more head coaches, more call players, when you have a list of talent deficits around you, sometimes it’s hard to evaluate. You have to go back to the features. I think Sam Darnold has high level traits in this position. The question for Jets is: Will these traits fit into LaFleur’s offense? Which I think is one of the best crimes in the NFL today. ”
Saleh and LaFleur bring with them Kyle Shanahan’s offensive in San Francisco. It is a crime seen as friendly for the defender, due to the strong emphasis on movement, action-play and launches. Darnold has always been good on the move, and the LaFleur offense could maximize that. There are many coaches and directors around the NFL who privately agree with Bowen and still see the potential of a superstar in Darnold and believe that, in the right offense, he can realize his potential.
But another factor in Darnold’s decision is finances. Darnold has one year left on his rookie contract at $ 4.6 million. There is also an option for the fifth year for 2022, which is $ 18.9 million. The Jets are unlikely to take that option. If I stay with Darnold, that means he should either move on after this year or commit to an extension for him. However, if he drafted a defender, he would start all over again with a defender on his rookie agreement and at least five years of control of the team.
Many in the entire league believe the Jets could get a second-round pick for Darnold, in addition to a mid-round pick this year or next year.
“If you want to stay here and tell me we’re going to take a defender because we think he’s going to be as good as Sam Darnold, if not even better, in the next three years and he’s resetting our financial calendar, I can’t stay. here and say, “No, that’s stupid,” especially with financial flexibility, “Orlovsky said. “But I know that too: if you take a defender and he gets OK and Sam Darnold goes somewhere else and plays well, woo, good luck.”
The college option
This would have been simple if the Jets 2020 had not won two games in December. We were talking about Trevor Lawrence, the child who can’t be missed, ranking 1st overall. Instead, the image of the 2nd place defender is more blurred.
There is no quarterback in this project. 2 of consensus. BYU’s Zach Wilson has gained the most momentum since the end of the season, but he also played a cupcake program. Justin Fields of Ohio could have the most impressive features. Trey Lance from North Dakota is a bit mysterious after just one game last season and 17 in total in college. Mac Jones of Alabama won many games with the Crimson Tide, but had an All-Star team around him.
The Jets sketch will pile up with those four defenders … and another.
“I would put Sam Darnold on the project board,” Bowen said. “Would I say where we write it down based on faculty and professional registration? If you qualify him more than Wilson and Fields, stay with him. It’s as simple as that. If not, then move it. ”
Jets must also evaluate what else they can do with choice no. 2 if he keeps Darnold. He could change it for a project selection package to a team that fell in love with one of the defenders. He could take the best non-quarterback in the draft to help Darnold. It could be a wide receiver, such as LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase or Alabama’s DeVonta Smith, or it could be Oregon offensive striker Pena Sewell associating with last year’s first-round pick, Mekhi Becton. .
“I’ve never been a big Darnold fan. It is a rolling machine. That’s him, “said Dan Shonka, a longtime NFL researcher who is now the general manager of OurLads research services. “But with that being said, I think if I were Joe Douglas, I would score Pena Sewell in that place. Now, you have a few approaches to books, as long as Becton can stand. ”
Shonka is not as tall on Wilson as others. In the last two months, Wilson has boosted the press board projects. Former NFL defender Chris Simms even praised him in front of Lawrence last week. Shonka has reservations about the BYU quarterback, who beat him in a weak program in 2020. He ranked him as the quarterback no. 5 behind Lawrence, Jones, Fields and Lance. Shonka also questions Wilson’s durability because of his lightweight 6-foot-3, 210-pound frame and the fact that he has already undergone shoulder surgery.
“Hear the herd mentality there with Zach Wilson,” Shonka said. “I want to tell you that Zach Wilson may not stay in the National Football League. He’s a narrow-shouldered guy. He is a very precise, smart guy, with a good anticipation and all that. But he’s not a very big guy. ”
Orlovsky is a big fan of Wilson, whom he said has traits he thinks will transfer him to the NFL.
“Wilson plays a FOMO style of football – the fear of not losing,” Orlovsky said. “It made me say, ‘Holy Fudge,’ more than any quarterback on the court this year. There are many things he likes about his game. He has fast hands. Reminds me [former MLB star] Omar Vizquel. He’s crazy about hands. ”
Fields’ trajectory was the opposite of Wilson’s. His popularity peaked in the college football semifinals, with his performance against Clemson. If the project had been the next day, he would have been number 2. But his game has been separate since then.
“I think Fields is incredibly talented. It is deliberate, “Orlovsky said. “You have to figure out if it’s going to grow out of it because being deliberate in the NFL isn’t good right now. For a guy who is incredibly athletic, he doesn’t play very fast. Are you confident he will? ”
Bowen believes part of the deliberate nature of the Fields game is due to the Ohio State offense, which featured deep, longer-running routes. He claims that Fields often waited for the receiver, rather than processing it slowly.
Bowen said Fields has skills that can’t be taught.
“Traits matter,” Bowen said. “It has to matter because you can’t create them.”
Lance and Jones both have supporters, but they seem less likely to be candidates for the Jets at No. 2.
Final decision
Douglas must now turn to one of the most difficult off-seasons ever to assess prospects. He will not be able to have private training and will not even have dinner with the players from college. He will participate in Pro Days, starting with Lance’s on Friday, and will debate with scouts and coaches on his way to making the call that will define the near – and possibly long – term – future of the Jets.
Douglas has been on duty for 21 months. The next month, which will lead to and in the first round on April 29, could be what defines his legacy with the Jets.
“I always think general managers put the stamp on their football team,” Bowen said. “Joe Douglas hasn’t done that yet. So what will it be? I think that’s it. That will mean the decision. ”