WASHINGTON (CNN) – An influential COVID-19 model predicted the total number of deaths in the US from the virus by August 1, which researchers say will be affected by the number of Americans who continue to wear masks as vaccinations continue .
A model from the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s (IHME) predicts that approximately 618,523 people will die from coronavirus in the United States by August 1. If 95% of the US population wore masks, the projection drops to 604,413 deaths.
In the worst case, when fully vaccinated people return to pre-pandemic mobility levels, the prediction increases to 697,573, IHME predicted. Projection factors in the vaccine distribution rate, as well as the spread in terms of more transmissible variants.
All 50 states are about to open vaccines for Americans 16 and older starting April 19. Although increasing vaccinations is an important step in defeating the virus, health experts warn that the country is in a race against variants such as B.1.1.7. first identified in the UK, which have the potential to cause another wave in cases.
The United States reported at least 80,157 new cases on Friday, the third day in a row and the fourth day in the last week, with at least 75,000 or more cases, according to Johns Hopkins University. Overall, more than 561,000 people have died from coronavirus to date, according to the account.
Vaccines are an effective tool against the spread of the virus, but they are not perfect and should be supplemented by precautions, such as wearing masks and avoiding indoor gatherings, said Dr. Anthony Fauci.
“I don’t think I would go – even if I’m vaccinated – to an indoor, crowded place where people don’t wear masks,” said the director of the National Institute for Allergies and Infectious Diseases for Business Insider.
Pfizer is looking to extend vaccinations to Americans up to 12 years old
To date, the youngest Americans eligible for vaccines are 16 years old.
But on Friday, Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Janet Woodcock said the agency would assess “as soon as possible” Pfizer’s request to extend the drug manufacturer’s COVID-19 emergency use authorization to includes people between the ages of 12 and 15.
“While the FDA cannot predict how long our evaluation of data and information will take, we will review the application as soon as possible, using our in-depth, science-based approach.” Woodcock said on Twitter.
Dr. Syra Madad, senior director of the New York City Health + Hospitals Program-Level Special Pathogens Program, told CNN on Saturday that making the vaccine available to the 12-15 age group delighted her as a parent. .
“We should all be very hopeful,” said Madad, a colleague at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School. “This is very welcome news. We know that children are vulnerable to infections and hospitalizations … They are certainly growing in cases.”
The pharmaceutical company said it would seek similar decisions from other authorities around the world in the coming days.
“These applications are based on data from the Phase 3 baseline study in adolescents aged 12 to 15 years, with or without previous evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, who demonstrated 100% efficacy and a robust antibody response. after vaccination with COVID-19 Vaccine, “Pfizer said in a statement.
The CDC director says COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations have increased
Meanwhile, COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations are on the rise – especially for younger people – while deaths are declining, said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in a briefing at the House on Friday. White.
The increase in cases and visits to the emergency room is seen in younger adults, many of whom have not been vaccinated, she said.
She said people aged 18 to 25, 26 to 54 and 55 to 64 had an increasing number of visits to emergency services, while people aged 65 and over and over they have declining visits, “probably demonstrating the important impact of vaccination in protecting against diseases that require hospitalization. “
Walensky said that although these are national statistics, the trends are amplified in some areas of the country.
With the spread of the more transmissible variant B.1.1.7, as well as the lower proportion of young people who have been vaccinated, the growth that experts fear could have a significant impact on young Americans.
“We need to think of variant B.1.1.7 as an almost brand-new virus,” said Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine earlier this week. “It acts differently from anything we’ve seen so far, in terms of transmissibility, in terms of affecting young people, so we have to take this very seriously.”
Concerns of side effects
In Colorado, following reports of side effects, three auto-up vaccination sites will no longer offer the Johnson & Johnson vaccine on Saturday.
The sites are Dick’s Sporting Goods Park in Commerce City, Broadmoor World Arena in Colorado Springs and Colorado State Fairgrounds in Pueblo, according to a Health Belt statement.
The health care network reiterated the CDC’s guidance that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is safe and effective, but said the decision was made because of the nationwide vaccine shortage and adverse reactions that occurred at an event. vaccination at Dick’s Sporting Goods Park earlier this week.
The Dick’s Sporting Goods Park vaccination site was due to close early Wednesday, after at least 11 of the more than 1,700 people who received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine suffered side effects.
However, officials in Wake County, North Carolina, plan to resume Johnson & Johnson vaccine immediately after Monday, after a break on Thursday when 18 people at PNC Arena experienced “mild to severe reactions immediately.” after vaccinations.
The decision comes “following a thorough internal analysis that further supports the findings of the CDC and the NC Department of Health and Human Services. The findings align with those of other similar events across the country, which do not indicate concerns, “he said in a statement.
The CDC, in a statement to CNN, said it was aware of the various incidents related to J&J vaccines reported in Iowa, Colorado, Georgia and North Carolina.
At this time, the CDC and the FDA “do not recommend that health departments stop administering any batch of COVID-19 vaccine,” the statement said. “The CDC performed batch vaccine tests and found no cause for concern.”
Madad told CNN on Saturday that the side effects were “consistent with the side effects we normally see after vaccination.”
“Right now, the benefits certainly outweigh the risks, but we hope that more information will be released to the general public,” she said.
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