ATLANTA (AP) – When Georgian Republican Kelly Loeffler and Democrat Raphael Warnock advanced to the second round of the United States Senate on January 5, they faced the immediate challenge of winning the 2 million voters who chose one of the other 18 candidates in the November elections.
Polls show that they have largely succeeded, and that could give Loeffler, the incumbent operator, a small advantage.
The Republican American Rep. Doug Collins came third in the November vote, which ended with 48,000 more votes than the Democratic candidates. In Georgia’s second round, Republican US Senator David Perdue started with an even bigger lead, having won 88,000 more votes than Democrat Jon Ossoff in November. However, not getting a majority, Perdue was forced into a run-off.
The turnout could be the deciding factor.
Up to and including Wednesday, nearly 2.1 million voters had voted, roughly in line with the November 3 general election. It’s unclear how the Christmas holidays will affect the pace of the mood. Personal early voting does not run until December 31 in some provinces.
One thing that helps voters is the candidates’ decision in both races to run like tickets, with joint appearances and advertisements. J. Miles Coleman of the University of Virginia Center for Politics said the concerted effort helped Warnock round up Democratic voters.
“He and Ossoff have done better as a ticket,” said Coleman. “I think overall this will benefit Warnock and help him consolidate some of his support.”
With the candidates as tickets, the parties are unlikely to split the seats. Two wins would put Democrats in control of the United States Senate, while Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would break a 50-50 tie. A split or two GOP wins would keep the Republicans in check.
Deborah Jackson, a former mayor of the Atlanta suburb of Lithonia, came fourth in November, the second Democrat behind Warnock. She took advantage of the fact that she was a black woman, a known number in the Democratic stronghold of DeKalb County, and the first Democrat to be on a ballot for so long that Warnock had to remind her supporters to go all the way down to get his name. find.
“I had tangible and practical experience,” said Jackson. “I think some people were interested in that.”
She said some people were offended that the leading state and national Democrats were trying to clear the field for Warnock, but said she still unreservedly supports him.
“The Democrats have to control the Senate, or at least there has to be a balance,” Jackson said.
At least one of Jackson’s supporters agrees. Stonecrest’s Laura Durojaiye said she has already voted for Warnock.
“I think he will get all of her votes,” Durojaiye said, saying she thinks Warnock is someone who will learn in the Senate and support her priorities to address climate change and societal inequality.
Shane Hazel, the libertarian who won the key votes that forced Perdue and Ossoff into a second round, said his voters could pass the round, telling Hazel that “they will never vote for anyone again for fear.
One of the best counties for early elections in the state is Rabun – in the northeast corner of Georgia – where President Donald Trump and Perdue both won 78% of the vote.
“I am convinced that the Democrats could lead Mother Teresa and get 20%,” said Ed Henderson, secretary of the Rabun County Republican Party.
As in the other counties in his northeast Georgia congressional district, Collins was the prime teller in the Senate special election. “This was Collins’s country,” Henderson said.
Collins, however, was a strong supporter of Loeffler and Perdue.
While nearly 40% of Rabun’s registered voters have already voted, Henderson said he is concerned that Trump’s incessant attacks on the integrity of Georgia’s presidential election will hurt Republican turnout there, citing the “ divine reverence ” those residents have for the president.
“My biggest problem in this election cycle is that there is distrust of the system,” Henderson said. He said a handful of stubborn Republicans have told him they are out of the election, and they believe Trump has been cheated, despite little credible evidence of wrongdoing.
Henderson also fears Loeffler has never been to his county, so far from Atlanta that many watch television outside of the state.
“It would be immensely helpful if they could come here in person and tell our voters they want our vote,” Henderson said of the Republican candidates.
Democrats have their own problems. Early votes are lagging in Georgia’s smaller metropolitan areas, including Savannah, Augusta, Macon, and Columbus, and Democratic vote totals have been disappointing in rural areas.
“The Democrats have really struggled to get black voters in rural parts of the state,” Coleman said. “Will the Democrats be able to do well enough in the rural parts of the state?”