It’s Christmas Eve, marking the beginning of what has traditionally been the best seven-day sprint for the year’s stocks – aka “Santa’s Rally.” So far, stock futures indicate a promising start to that ritual, but since this market still belongs to 2020 for a few days, anything could happen.
One event that could subside before Christmas is a post-Brexit trade deal. Investors are also looking at that $ 900 billion stimulus bill that President Donald Trump has unfortunately indicated.
Ours call of the day, which says get ready for 2021 and “year V.” It comes from Vincent Deluard, global macro strategist at financial services group StoneX, whose V collection includes a virus that is still raging that leads to “one last scare of deflation in the first quarter.”
Deluard warns of the first three brutal months of the year in its December newsletter, predicting record COVID-19 infections and deaths and blockages on both sides of the Atlantic. He sees grim economic data for December and January triggering a sell-off for major cyclical gold and copper assets, and central banks jumped in the face of deflation.
But then comes the relief in the second trimester, with vaccines triggering reloaded demand, leading to rapid reflation. This is against the backdrop of disrupted supply chains, with demand returning to real goods, rising consumption due to record net value and low debt service costs and then massive cuts in the spending budgets of large oil companies, squeezing the oil market, he said.
Deluard’s great advice? “Investors should start accumulating cheap, inflation-sensitive assets now. However, it may be prudent to cover cyclical risks with “anti-growth trade” in the first quarter: long gold, health care and the yen against a short position. [bearish] in the future of oil, “he said.
“In the second half, investors should focus on the best reflation and reopening transactions: Latin American equities (no hedging) and the IBEX 35 index, respectively,” the strategist said.
Here are more of his Vs for 2021 – valuations will count, stocks will eventually shine, volatility becomes the new normal with VIX or Cboe Volatility Index VIX,
which measures stock volatility, over 20 for much of the year. Under 20 often means that markets are not stressed. He also warns of vulnerable and overvalued bonds and numerous stocks and the explosion of the IPO bubble.
With those dear investors, you have a happy and secure little bit Christmas.
markets
In half a day for markets, YM00 futures shares,
ES00,
NQ00,
are larger, with European SXXP markets,
mixed. GBPUSD,
FTSE 100 UKX is also in operation,
following those hopes of the Brexit agreement.
Read: This is what a Brexit agreement means for the markets
Stocks in Asia were largely depleted, with the exception of China, as Alibaba BABA,
decreased as regulators launched an antitrust probe of the e-commerce group.
Read: What markets are open and when to celebrate
Buzz
A post-Brexit trade deal between Britain and Europe could finally be here, following the marathon negotiations.
There may be some good news on the front of COVID-19, as a couple of studies indicate that the infection could protect against reinfection. That’s because more than 1 million Americans have been vaccinated. Meanwhile, the UK is expanding its blockade as a second, even more contagious strain spreads, believed to come from South Africa.
Square SQ Digital Payment Group,
would have expressed interest in buying Tidal, Jay-Z’s music streaming service.
Nuro became the first company in California approved to operate a driverless delivery business.
President Donald Trump issued several pardons on Wednesday, bringing the total to nearly 50. Former campaign president Paul Manafort and Charles Kushner, the father of his son-in-law Jared, are among the latest beneficiaries.
Chart
Random readings
A digitally created queen enters a TikTok dance to make a point about deepfakes
A “dragon” and a cure for cancer. What a mystic said about 2021 about the September 11 attacks
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