RICHMOND, Va. (AP) – The National Republican Party in Washington is at war with itself, struggling to close a bitter rift between former President Donald Trump’s fierce loyalists and those who want Trumpism purged from the GOP.
All they have to do is look across the Potomac River to Virginia to see the dangers that lurk if they can’t correct their course.
In just nine months, Virginia voters will elect a new governor in what marks the first significant test of the Republican Party’s strength in the post-Trump era.
While the state only had a Republican governor in 2014, it has been strongly democratic in recent years as the suburban counties outside of Washington, which increasingly feature a diverse mix of highly educated, affluent voters, have rejected the tougher sides. of the GOP agenda in general, and Trump in particular.
Republicans will also keep a close eye on whether the governor’s race serves as an omen for their party ahead of next year’s midterm elections, as GOP leaders work to ease exploding tensions between mainstream conservatives and pro-Trump supporters . The party’s future success – and perhaps its survival – will depend on whether Republicans in rival states like Virginia can recreate a coalition beyond Trump’s hardcore base.
So far, that playbook doesn’t exist.
And the challenges come from within. Two high-profile Republicans threaten bids from third parties that would effectively kill the GOP’s chance to reclaim the governor’s office. Several other candidates are trying to bring together a coalition of both pro-Trump extremists and mainstream moderates, an ideological mix for which no successful model exists.
Central to the Virginia GOP’s challenge is Gov. candidate Amanda Chase, a polarizing state senator who appears to have captured the hearts and minds of the Trump faithful with her vehemently anti-establishment, pro-gun stances and her embrace of the false idea that Trump is the legitimate winner of the November election.
Nicknamed “Trump in Heels,” Chase emulates the former president in demeanor and policy. She was censored by Democrats and Republicans in the state legislature last week for displaying a pattern of “ behavior unbecoming a senator, ” including an accusation that she described the pro-Trump gang that invaded the Capitol last month as “ patriots’.
And yet, in the Republican Party remade in Trump’s image for the past five years, Chase is considered a serious contender for the governmental nomination.
I like to think I’m a little more polished than President Trump. I’m a bit more diplomatic, but I’m not afraid to speak my mind, ”Chase said in an interview.
Democrats have a completely different issue. Former Governor Terry McAuliffe headlines a string of candidates competing in a quieter nomination competition. McAuliffe, whose ties to his party’s establishment have come under fire from his left flank, is quick to highlight the progressive policies he would pursue and condemn the Republican field.
The former Democratic governor described Chase in an interview as “the Republican frontrunner.”
“You have a lot of candidates all trying to outdo each other,” McAuliffe told The Associated Press. “2021 will be a major test of whether Trumpism is still alive.”
McAuliffe, a key ally of President Joe Biden who enjoys tremendous fundraising advantage and near-universal name recognition in Virginia, runs a busy contest of his own with three African Americans – Senator Jennifer McClellan, former State Representative Jennifer Carroll Foy and Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax – plus a self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist, Lee Carter.
Meanwhile, the GOP state is disorganized and broke.
Aside from a traditional statewide primary, the party plans to hold a personal nomination convention on May 1, although state rules would make such a meeting illegal. Party leaders are leaning towards an “unassembled” satellite convention, but have not ruled out that the GOP state’s 12-member executive committee will choose the candidate.
Chase openly threatens to flee as a third party candidate if she thinks the rules are being manipulated against her.
“If they take the rights of the people of Virginia, I’ll declare the Republican Party dead,” Chase warned. “I’ll start the Patriot Party of Virginia. And I will not look back. “
She’s not alone.
Former Republican Congressman Denver Riggleman, who has spoken out repeatedly against Trump and his acolytes since stepping down last month, also raised the possibility of pursuing a third party governor in recent days.
A third party bid from either contender would split the Republican electorate and make it nearly impossible for Republicans to win this fall.
Meanwhile, the Republican field has a handful of candidates who remain with their party. They include Kirk Cox, the former State House speaker; Northern Virginia businessman Pete Snyder, who previously lost a bid for Lieutenant Governor; and political newcomer and former CEO of private equity Glenn Youngkin.
Cox is trying to focus the election on local issues rather than Trump. He described Biden in an interview as “the legitimate president” and denied the pro-Trump conspiracy theory known as QAnon.
Cox also declined to say whether he would like Trump to campaign in Virginia on his behalf.
“I would like everyone to turn and focus on Virginia and Virginians,” he said.
Trump adviser Jason Miller said it was “too early to tell” what role the former president or his high-profile surrogates would or would not play in the Virginia contest.
John Fredericks, who twice served as Trump’s state director in Virginia, described the state GOP as “ a dumpster. ” He predicted that Trump would get personally involved, though more likely in the general election than in the Republican nomination contest.
As for Chase, Trump’s most passionate ally in the race, Fredericks fears she won’t be viable in a general election because of her “shenanigans.”
“The word I get from the Republicans is that it is exhaustive,” he said. “They’ve had enough.”
Chase maintains that she has won ‘impossible races’ in the past. She was first elected to the General Assembly in 2015 after taking out a longtime sitting president who far outnumbered her in the first grade.
Despite her combative social media presence and the fact that she’s filing charges the Senate herself, she is typically spirited and warm in personal interactions. During floor sessions, she sits behind a plexiglass shield erected because she refuses to wear a mask. Chase, who previously said she “doesn’t do a COVID,” waited Friday for the results of a test following a possible exposure.
Since late 2019, she has engaged in what her critics see as increasingly bizarre, radical behavior.
In an interview, Chase declined to reject QAnon, questioned the mental health of her colleagues after questioning hers in speeches on the ground last week, and declined to say Trump lost the November election.
“I believe the election was stolen nationally,” she insisted, although she later said in the interview that she accepted the election results.
In December, she called on Trump to declare martial law instead of leaving office.
While Fredericks said Chase could win as much as a third of the vote in a traditional Republican primaries, she’s almost completely alienated from Republican officials in the Capitol. She started from her own local party and decided to stop talking to fellow Senate Republicans in late 2019.
Democrats are optimistic they can take advantage of the Republican chaos. But history is against them. For the past four decades, Virginia voters have elected a governor from the party who does not win every election but one of the White House.
McAuliffe also believes Trump’s absence will make it more difficult for Democrats to back up their coalition in Virginia and beyond later this year.
“I say to the Democrats all the time, Trump is gone now. And he has been a major driver of our rise. He’s not in the mood anymore, ”McAuliffe said. “We have to participate in our game.”
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Peoples reported from New York.