The average and calm weather pattern is about to change as one powerful winter storm after another marches into the region.
The energy of a storm that created hurricane-force through parts of Southern California has passed 2,000 miles across the United States. Forecasting models suggest that the next act may be the most impressive.
The system crossed the Ozarks Wednesday night, dropping snow on more than a million people in Northern Arkansas and Southern Missouri. Snow was still falling on Thursday morning, where snow totals could reach 3 to 5 inches with even more than half a foot possible at altitudes above 1,800 feet.
If the system dives further south on Thursday, it will drain moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This controls one of the two main ingredients required to produce significant snowfall in the southern US. The other comes in the form of unusually cold temperatures found behind the incoming front.
Temperatures will drop 5 to 10 degrees below the seasonal average in the region on Thursday and Friday, paving the way for snow to accumulate for millions as the weekend approaches.
Winter storm guards are in effect in East Tennessee, North Georgia, West North Carolina and South Virginia from late Thursday to late Friday afternoon, according to the National Weather Service.
The city of Charlotte is on the alert for a snow storm from late Friday morning to early Friday afternoon. The location of the low-pressure center and the amount of cold air it has to operate with will be the limiting factors in giving the Queen City its first snowfall of the season.
Contrary to popular belief, snowfall in Charlotte is not uncommon. The city takes up about 10 inches of the white stuff a year on average, about the same as Seattle, Washington.
“Charlotte has never spent an entire winter without at least a trail of snow since the data was collected in 1879,” said CNN meteorologist Allison Chinchar.
In the higher elevations, confidence is much greater that the combination of cold air and available moisture will create a winter wonderland in parts of the Smokies and Appalachians. As much as six inches of fresh snow can fall in the western parts of North Carolina, in places like Highlands, Asheville and Boone. The ski slopes at Beech, Sugar, and Grandfather Mountain all expect six to eight inches of new snow. The highest snow totals are expected on east facing slopes as easterly updrafts maximize lift here and squeeze out the most impressive snow totals. As the air is forced to rise, it will further cool and condense, leaving as much as 10 inches or more of snow in these favorable regions of Western North Carolina.
Locations such as Hickory, Winston-Salem and Greensboro could all see a build-up of snow from Thursday evening and continuing through Friday afternoon at a whopping 1 to 2 inches. Light accumulation is also possible as far north as Blacksburg and Roanoke, West Virginia.
Although the winter season is a little over two weeks old, throughout the southern United States it resembles the winter of 2010-11. That year was marked by numerous cold gusts of air and impressive snowfall.
“Cities like Atlanta and Charlotte both recorded above-average snow totals,” said CNN meteorologist Michael Guy. “What makes this remarkable is that the winter of 2010-11 was also a La Niña year, which would normally indicate warmer and drier conditions for the region.”
The next round could produce even more snow
While it is too early to say for certain, models also indicate a secondary system that could see a larger area of the region, stretching from Texas to the Gulf Coast and through the Southeast. The weathermaker is expected to cross the Pacific Northwest for the weekend on Friday and swiftly move south towards the Four Corners region by Saturday.
Here, some models suggest the system could move closer to the Gulf of Mexico and provide it with enough moisture to create a winter mess in the Lone Star State late Saturday to Sunday. The snow blanket continues from Texas, through the south and from Tuesday to New York.
Other models are not yet as optimistic about the strength of the storm.
And just Wednesday, many computer models showed moisture from this storm system down to southern Florida, where it won’t be cold enough for snow.