The prediction is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, experience, literature and expert consultation
Dr. Marty Makary, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine in the United States, said in an opinion piece published in the Wall Street Journal that the country will have herd immunity to Covid-19 in April.
Makary, who is also a professor at Bloomberg School of Public Health, claims that the fact that cases have dropped by 77% in the last six weeks has been ignored, which he sees as a rapid decline.
The doctor largely attributes this decrease in cases to the fact that natural immunity to previous infections is much more common than can be measured by tests.
“The tests caught only 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when someone contracted the virus during the pandemic. Applying a weighted average catch over 1 in 6.5 to the 28 million cumulatively confirmed cases would mean that about 55% of Americans have natural immunity, ”he says.
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According to the prestigious doctor, to the problem of natural immunity is added the fact that people are vaccinated. In this regard, remember that during the week 15% of Americans received the vaccine, a figure that is growing rapidly.
Reference is made to the fact that, according to the estimates of the former Commissioner for Food and Drugs, Scott Gottlieb, by the end of March, 250 million doses will have been administered to approximately 150 million people.
“Antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity. The antibody test does not capture antigen-specific T cells, which develop “memory” once they are activated by the virus. In 2008, 90 years later, it was discovered that the survivors of the Spanish flu of 1918 had memory cells capable of producing neutralizing antibodies, “he explained.
Dr. Makary, also a counselor at Sesame Care and author of the book “The Price We Pay,” says his prediction that Covid-19 will disappear for the most part in April is based on laboratory data. mathematics, published literature and conversations with experts, as well as direct observation of how difficult it is for the poor to access tests, which has led to very few infections.
“Many experts, along with politicians and journalists, are afraid to talk about the herd’s immunity. The term has political overtones, as some have suggested that the US let Covid break to gain the herd’s immunity. It was a reckless idea. But the immunity of the herd is the inevitable result of viral spread and vaccination. When the chain of transmission of the virus has been broken in several places, it is more difficult to spread and this includes new strains, “he said.
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Professor Makary also analyzed the experience of herd immunity in other regions, such as the Brazilian city of Manaus, as well as the decrease in daily cases in other countries where there are new variants of Covid – 19, such as the United Kingdom, South Africa, the same Brazil.
In his opinion piece, he said that while some medical experts agreed with his prediction of the herd’s immunity, he advised him not to speak publicly on the subject, fearing that people would not take action. caution or will reject the vaccine.
The same is true of the idea that in the United States, while the population is urged to get vaccinated, it is necessary to reopen schools and society to limit the damage caused by prolonged closure and isolation.