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The SARS-CoV-2 variant first detected in the United Kingdom is fast becoming the dominant strain in several countries and doubling every 10 days in the United States, according to new data.
The findings of Nicole L. Washington, PhD, associate director of research at the genomics company Helix, and colleagues were posted Sunday on the prepress server medRxiv. The paper was not evaluated by colleagues in a scientific journal.
The researchers also found that the transmission rate in the United States of the variant, labeled B.1.1.7, is 30% to 40% higher than that of some more common lines.
While initially the clinical results were considered similar to those of other SARS-CoV-2 variants, early reports suggest that infection with variant B.1.1.7 may increase the risk of death by approximately 30%.
A co-author of the current study, said Kristian Andersen New York Times “Nothing in this work is surprising, but people need to see it.”
Andersen, a virologist at the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, California, added that “we should probably prepare for this to be the predominant line in most places in the United States by March.”
The study of variant B.1.1.7 adds support for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) ‘s prediction last month that it will dominate by March.
“Our study shows that the US is on a similar trajectory to other countries where B.1.1.7 has quickly become the dominant variant of SARS-CoV-2, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. “, write the researchers.
The authors point out that variant B.1.1.7 became the dominant strain of SARS-CoV-2 in the United Kingdom within a few months of its detection.
“Since then, the variant has been increasingly observed in many European countries, including Portugal and Ireland, which, like the United Kingdom, have seen devastating waves of COVID-19 after B.1.1.7 became dominant.” , write the authors.
Category 5 storm
Variant B.1.1.7 has probably spread among US states since at least December, they write.
Medscape Medical news reported on Jan. 15 that since Jan. 13, B.1.1.7 has been seen in 76 cases in 12 U.S. states, according to an early CDC statement Weekly report on morbidity and mortality (MMWR).
As of Sunday, there were 690 cases of variant B.1.1.7 in the United States in 33 states, according to the CDC.
Washington and colleagues examined more than 500,000 coronavirus testing samples from cases in the United States that were tested at the Helix facility in San Mateo, California in July.
In the study, they found an inconsistent prevalence of variance between states. By the last week of January, the researchers estimated that the proportion of B.1.1.7 in the US population was about 2.1% of all COVID-19 cases, although they found that it accounted for about 2% of all COVID-19 cases. 19 California and about 4.5% of cases in Florida. The authors acknowledge that their data are less robust outside the two states.
Although it seems a relatively low frequency, “our estimates show that its growth rate is at least 35% -45% increased and doubled every week and a half,” the authors write.
“Because US laboratories sequence only a small subset of SARS-CoV-2 samples, the true diversity of the SARS-CoV-2 sequence in this country is still unknown,” they note.
Michael Osterholm, Ph.D., MPH, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said last week that the United States is facing a “Category 5” storm with the spread of B.1.1.7 . as variants first identified in South Africa and Brazil.
“We’ll see something like we haven’t seen in this country yet,” Osterholm told NBC’s recently Meet the press.
Lead author Nicole L. Washington and many of the co-authors are employees of Helix. Other co-authors are Illumina employees. Three co-authors hold stocks in ILMN.
The work was funded by Illumina, Helix, the Institute for Innovative Genomics (CYC) and the New Frontiers in Research Fund provided by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CYC).
Marcia Frellick is a Chicago-based freelance journalist. He previously wrote for the Chicago Tribune, Science News and Nurse.com and was an editor at the Chicago Sun-Times, Cincinnati Enquirer and St. Cloud (Minnesota) Times. Follow her on Twitter at @mfrellick
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