Brexit artisans have long called for a trade rapprochement between the United Kingdom and the United States to offset the divorce from the European Union. And for this Donald Trump, with his contempt for multilateralism and the Brussels institutions, seemed the perfect partner.
But in January At the same time, the United Kingdom will certainly leave the bloc of the 27 countries and will have to deal with a new American president, Joe Biden, who gives priority to the EU and does not share the isolationist spirit of the “Brexiters”.
Biden, of Irish and Catholic descent, warned British Prime Minister Boris Johnson against any action that endangers peace in Northern Ireland, in particular a return to a physical border with Ireland, an EU member state.
At this point, London reached an agreement with Brussels just before the general post-Brexit agreement concluded on Thursday, a sign, according to analysts, of a certain influence from Biden’s electoral victory.
“London understood that a problem on the Northern Irish border would have been absolutely toxic to British-American relations,” said Jacob Kirkegaard of the American think tank Marshall Fund.
Johnson’s Conservative government has highlighted points where it shares an affinity with Biden, including combating climate change.. The November climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland, will be an opportunity to highlight the common ambition of the two transatlantic partners.
And about Iran, London and Washington should be on the same page again, after four years of misunderstandings.
“On paper, the British Conservative Party is closer to the Democratic Party than Donald Trump’s Republican Party,” Kirkegaard notes.
The British have also announced a historic increase in military spending, to try, according to Kirkegaard, continues to be at the level of power as strategic partners of the United States, especially amid tensions with China. But the next US president could be more attracted to the EU military force.
“Britain has tried to make Brexit relevant, but it is no longer strictly necessary for the United States to have it with us,” he said.
“I’m irish”
Biden was surrounded by former Barack Obama advisers who are reluctant to forget that in 2016 Johnson said, in line with American far-right thinking, that the then president of the United States had an “ancestral antipathy” to the United Kingdom for “Kenyan” origins .
The president-elect, who will enter the White House on January 20, does not hesitate to highlight his Irish origins, apparently distancing himself from the United Kingdom.
In a video that was widely watched after the election, Biden tells a BBC reporter who is trying to ask him a question: “BBC? I’m Irish “, before giving him a friendly smile.
“There is a clear feeling among some people in Biden’s circle that Brexit was a completely wrong decision and that Johnson was very close to Trump.”says Erik Brattberg, director of the European program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “They believe then that the relationship with London needs to be minimized.”
But he clarifies that Biden recognizes his special relationship with the United Kingdom and will not neglect this important ally, as his predecessor did with other European leaders, especially Germany’s Angela Merkel.
“Trump’s style has been more to encourage divisions in Europe, while Biden will look at his legacy to try to heal those divisions,” says Brattberg.
No trade priority
London has accelerated plans to seal a trade deal with the United States to offset the European divorce, but lawmakers in the Biden Democratic Party have warned that all negotiations have been turned off, while the Northern Ireland issue has not been resolved.
But even with Northern Ireland’s status set for the time being, any deal could be extremely unpopular with British public opinion, due to less stringent animal welfare standards in the United States for meat and probably higher prices for medicines.
Biden has indicated that he will not give priority to signing new trade agreements without the approval of Congress, on July 1, it will lose the opportunity to resort to mechanisms to speed up negotiations.
“It will be very difficult, if not impossible, for the United States to reach an agreement with the United Kingdom,” said Jennifer Hillman, an analyst at the Foreign Relations Council, who said the negotiations should end in April.