ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates – When Conor McGregor is involved, there is always the potential for hyperbole. When you have such a big star, everything tends to turn to a note – including any comments about it or a future fight. But let me say that I have really been waiting for this moment since the end of 2016.
If everything is done, only time will tell. But I think we could finally realize McGregor’s true fighting potential in 2021. If you go back to the end of 2016, McGregor was the current champion of featherweight and lightweight. He had avenged his loss of obedience to Nate Diaz. He was not considered the absolute best fighter in the world, but he was on the radar for this honor.
Of course, we all know what happened next. McGregor (22-4), who is battling Dustin Poirier in an untitled easy fight at UFC 257 on Saturday in Abu Dhabi (the main book at 22 pm ET, buy here on pay-per-view), watched a match of profitable boxing against Floyd Mayweather in 2017, began to face various legal issues, lost a championship fight against Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2018, did not fight at all in 2019 and competed once in 2020 for less than a minute.
And honestly, all of this is not hard to understand. McGregor reached unprecedented levels of fame in 2016 and cashed in on the Mayweather fight. This match was fun and paid McGregor more than any MMA fight would have had, but it was also a prank and a monumental pivot of what he could have accomplished in MMA.
It’s wild to think: McGregor has been in the UFC since 2013 and could be said to have competed in his most natural weight class only twice. His featherweight cut was easy to manage, but brutal. And it doesn’t even come close to the average size of a welterweight. McGregor is easy and I saw him compete there only in 2016, when he won the Eddie Alvarez belt and in 2018, when he failed to win it back against Nurmagomedov.
Look, we know who McGregor is as a celebrity and a public figure. He had an obvious impact on whole the martial arts industry, as well as in the sports media industry as a whole. And we know a lot about him as a fighter. We know he’s extremely talented. We know he was the first “champion” of the UFC. We know it’s good – really great.
But we don’t know how real he is. This is the part that remains to be defined. He would never have fallen into the world of a “money fight” with Mayweather and more or less disappeared from the competition, what could he have done? Have you defended the championship lightly several times? Caused for the third belt? They might even have beaten Nurmagomedov in different circumstances, if he had maintained all the momentum of 2016?
I really hope we’re about to find out. McGregor has repeatedly said that he has committed himself to this 155-pound framework and that he wants to be active in 2021. We know that McGregor is an amazing fighter. I want to know this year exact how amazing it can be.
By numbers
6: Easy knockouts for Poirier, tying him third in the division’s history, one behind Melvin Guillard and Edson Barboza.
91: The percentage of McGregor’s victories he completed with completions (19 eliminations and a deposit in 22 victories).
1.95: Knockdowns 15 minutes in the cage for McGregor, the eighth highest rate in UFC history.
6.45: Significant shots landed per minute in the Octagon by Poirier, the third-highest in UFC lightweight history, behind only 7.46 of Justin Gaethje and 6.83 of TJ Grant.
8: McGregor’s 2015 pay-per-view events, including this one. Only Daniel Cormier (9) did more. This will be McGregor’s fourth major PPV event, an untitled fight, most of any in the last 10 years.
Sources: ESPN statistics and information and UFC statistics
A look back
Since then …
Five against five
The latest results of Dustin Poirier
Win: Dan Hooker (UD, June 27, 2020; watch ESPN +)
Loss: Khabib Nurmagomedov (Under 3, September 7, 2019; watch on ESPN +)
Win: Max Holloway (UD, April 13, 2019; watch on ESPN +)
Win: Eddie Alvarez (TKO2, July 28, 2018)
Win: Justin Gaethje (TKO4, April 14, 2018)
Conor McGregor’s latest results
Win: Donald Cerrone (TKO1, January 18, 2020; watch on ESPN +)
Loss: Khabib Nurmagomedov (Under 4, October 6, 2018; watch on ESPN +)
Win: Eddie Alvarez (TKO2, November 12, 2016; watch on ESPN +)
Win: Nate Diaz (MD, August 20, 2016; watch on ESPN +)
Loss: Nate Diaz (Under 2, March 5, 2016; watch on ESPN +)
Dom & Gil’s film studio
Dominick Cruz about why Poirier-McGregor 1 went the same way:
Gilbert Melendez on how Poirier-McGregor 2 can go differently:
And the winner is …
“I think Poirier will try to fight smart and win a mixed martial arts fight, he won’t make it a standing fight or a wrestling match,” said Urijah Faber, UFC Family Hall. “Conor has looked very impressive in his athleticism. He seems to be taking it really seriously. I’m leaning on Conor’s side again.”
Faber is one of many fighters and coaches who have influenced analysis and predictions. See what they had to say here.
A deeper analysis of a fight is ESPN MMA analyst Gilbert Melendez, two-time Strikeforce lightweight champion and former WEC lightweight champion. His starting point: that this is revenge.
“McGregor got the best out of Poirier years ago,” Melendez writes, “and no matter what, that will weigh heavily on the minds of both fighters.”
How to watch the fights
Watch preliminaries on ESPN or ESPN +: Download the ESPN | application WatchESPN | TV
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Have you purchased the fight on your phone and want to stream it to your TV? Find out how here.
There is also FightCenter, which provides live updates for each UFC card.
Saturday’s battle book
PPV (via ESPN +), 22:00 ET
Dustin Poirier Vs. Conor McGregor | Light
Dan Hooker Vs. Michael Chandler | Light
Jessica Eye Vs. Joanne Calderwood | Women’s fly weight
Andrew Sanchez vs. Makhmud Muradov | Average weight
Marina Rodriguez Vs. Amanda Ribas | Straw weight
ESPN / ESPN +, 8 pm ET
Matt Frevola vs. Arman Tsarukyan | Light
Brad Tavares Vs. Antonio Carlos Junior | Average weight
Julianna Pena vs. Sara McMann | Bantam weight for women
Khalil Rountree Jr. Marcin Prachnio | Light weight
ESPN +, 19:00 ET
Movsar Evloev Vs. Nik Lentz | Maximum weight (150 pounds)
Amir Albazi vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov | The weight of flies for men
The main co-event raises the curtain of a champion
Michael Chandler, the former champion of the Bellator light equipment, makes his debut in the Octagon in the main competition UFC 257, in front of Dan Hooker, who is on the 6th place in the ESPN ranking with light equipment. Chandler is number 7.
Chandler will be the ninth former Bellator champion to move to the UFC, with the last eight going 5-3 at the start. Winners: Alexander Volkov, Lyman Good, Ben Askren, Will Brooks and Zach Makovsky. The losers: Hector Lombard, Eddie Alvarez and Joe Soto.
Alvarez is the only former Bellator champion to win a UFC title.
Some notable numbers – or, why the judges don’t even need to bother to take the cage place: Chandler finished in 76% of his career fights (nine eliminations and seven submissions in 21 wins) and Hooker’s is 85% (10 eliminations and seven references in 20 career wins).
Two more things to know (from ESPN Statistics and Information)
1. Joanne Calderwood, who faces contender for the 2019 title, Jessica Eye, got 444 significant strikes in her UFC career, the third largest in the history of female fly weight. Calderwood is number 5 in the ESPN rankings for the £ 125 division.
2. The opening of the main book is a confrontation between the great Brazilian straw, Marina Rodriguez, who is on the 8th place in the ESPN ranking at 115 pounds, and Amanda Ribas, who is 4-0 in the octagon. Rodriguez is coming off her first career defeat, a split decision loss to former champion Carla Esparza in July. Ribas finished in seven of his 10 career victories (four deposits, three eliminations).
ESPN’s Jeff Wagenheim contributed to this preview of the fight.