Typhoon Surigae has been moving slowly toward the Philippines since it developed earlier this week, but the storm has intensified rapidly over the past 24 hours.
Surigae, known locally in the Philippines as Typhoon Bising, developed from a tropical storm on Thursday to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane with a wind speed of 215 km / h.
This rapid intensification took place due to the ideal conditions for the development of the hurricane / typhoon: the shear of the wind or the change of the speed and direction of the wind with the height in the atmosphere was very low. Strong wind shear can break storms like this to pieces, but small shear allows them to feed on extremely warm waters and blossom into a strong storm.
Continuous low shear and excellent drainage will allow Surigae to thrive in warm water flowing a few degrees above normal at this time of year. In fact, Surigae may reach super typhoon status (wind over 150 km / h, 240 km / h) in the next day or two.
The forecast is for the Philippines
Earlier in the week, projections for Surigae were to follow west to the Philippines before heading northwest and north, comfortably missing the Philippines to the east. However, in recent days, several weather forecast models have shown a trend for the storm to follow closer to the central Philippines.
On this current trajectory, the strongest winds of over 100 mph (160 km / h) and the worst of the precipitation would remain offshore, but the storm would pass close enough to bring strong tropical winds (39-73 mph, 63-117 km / h)) and four to eight inches (100-200 mm) of rain.
This rain and wind could be enough to cause localized floods, minor property damage and power outages. PAGASA has already issued warnings, as conditions are expected to deteriorate on Sunday. If the westward trend continues, the impact will worsen and additional warnings will be issued.
Regardless of the exact route, a storm of this magnitude will generate huge surprises, and sailors in the region have been advised to be careful.
Even though Surigae remains offshore this weekend, it will need to be monitored next week as it moves slowly northwest and north.
How much the storm curves will determine the impact for the northeastern parts of Luzon. Some weather forecast models show that the storm is coming very close to this section of the Philippine coast until Tuesday and Wednesday, but other official models and forecasts continue to be further offshore with limited impact. Time will tell.