A sign explaining the mask requirements for a mixing unit in Tampa, Florida, December 19th.
Photo:
Ivy Ceballo / Zuma Press
The new coronavirus is about to make its last major stand, so get ready for the toughest six weeks so far. But things will look up as spring approaches. Stay safe and try to avoid being the last person to get Covid-19.
Next year will still require caution, but the fear of Covid will not dominate life after the winter recedes. The prevalence will drop sharply in spring and summer. The virus can reappear in the fall, but can be a manageable threat with proper precautions.
That being said, the downgrade of the pandemic to 2020 will require some changes. It is possible that the virus will become endemic, which means that it will continue to circulate, but at a much lower level than the epidemic. If we are careful, next autumn could look like a particularly virulent flu season in which vaccines fit poorly. Most of the activities that Americans enjoy will be resumed, although some of them will require precautions.
It starts with changes in the way people go to work. You should be sick of coming to work sick and trying to “face” a cold. Testing for the flu and Covid will be widespread with home tests. Many people may still prefer to wear masks in public places, but they will not be necessary. We will pay more attention to indoor ventilation and crowding indoors.
These steps will have benefits that go beyond Covid. They will also slow the spread of other respiratory infections – including the flu, which require a huge fee each year. The flu caused more than 40 million symptomatic diseases and 650,000 hospitalizations in the 2018-19 season, according to estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A 2018 study in the journal Vaccine estimates economic damage, including reduced productivity, at $ 11.2 billion a year. This figure may be conservative; some models say the burden is up to $ 87 billion annually.
Priorities for next year will be the widespread distribution of vaccines, hopefully with all eligible Americans by spring, while continuing to collect information on safety and benefits. It will also be essential to provide easy access to vaccination – preparing pharmacies to offer the Covid vaccine as flu vaccines. If a high percentage of the most vulnerable populations are vaccinated, this would suddenly reduce the risk of Covid. The benefits will be even greater if, as expected, vaccines not only reduce the risk of severe symptoms, but also reduce the chances of being infected and spreading them.
Next year will be an adjustment to a new normal. The company will not return to its 2019 strategy for handling respiratory pathogens, but this is not a bad thing. The response to the pandemic was affected by a vocal minority that rejected Covid’s risks and fought measures such as masks. This defiant position will have to change for a normal appearance to return in 2021. But with sensitive measures, medicines and vaccines, Covid can be turned into a manageable risk.
Dr. Gottlieb is a resident member of the American Enterprise Institute and was commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, 2017-19. He is a board member of Pfizer and Illumina and a partner in venture capital firm New Enterprise Associates.
Wonder Land: Leading epidemiologists have come together to write the “Great Barrington Declaration,” which calls for a “focused protection” strategy in coronavirus management and has already been signed by thousands of scientists. Images: Getty Composite: Mark Kelly
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It appeared in the printed edition of December 28, 2020 under the name “Covid starts its last stand”.