For for the past four years, the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has waged a war in Syria, supported Iraqi forces and managed the policies of its homeland, constantly trying to avoid confrontation with Israel. However, its exhausted leaders fear that the last breaths of Donald Trump’s presidency could bring threats that overshadow everything else.
In the central area of the organization, Hezbollah members watch the clock and the sky. Israeli planes have been overhead for more than a month, and in recent weeks the frequency of flights has risen sharply, as has security in the southern suburbs of Beirut, the nerve center of the region’s strongest militant group.
Leaders and senior members fear that Trump, his secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, and Israel intend to use the weeks before Joe Biden’s inauguration to take decisive action against Iran and Hezbollah before the new president takes a much more anticipated stance.
“They have their own window and want to finish what they started,” said a middle-class Hezbollah group. “But don’t worry, Sayyid.” [the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah] it’s sure.”
Interviews with two middle-class Hezbollah members and an intermediary familiar with the group’s top leaders revealed an image of an organization determined not to be drawn into a clash with Israel or seen as acting explicitly in defense. Iran. All three sources said they believe the new US administration will try to negotiate a nuclear deal with Tehran, which was signed by Barack Obama and revoked by Trump and could be renewed in another incarnation.
“That means easing sanctions, and that means the pressure will eventually be removed,” said one Hezbollah member. “They are trying to hurt Iran to do us harm. It will not work, because everyone has seen this plan since the summer. And we all have the means to survive their pressure. “
Israeli attacks on Iranian targets in Syria have taken place almost weekly since early 2017, and members of Hezbollah, who have been heavily involved in supporting Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, have sometimes been killed in airstrikes, although its members have failed to do so. recently targeted. The assassination of Iran’s chief nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh outside Tehran on November 27, almost certainly by Israel, has raised alarm in Beirut that the distinction made so far between Iran and Hezbollah may change in the next month and a half.
A high-ranking official described the following weeks as “the most dangerous period in the last 30 years. Everyone is worried and with good reason. “
So far, Israel has indicated that the turn of its arch enemy is not its main target in Syria and has sometimes fired warning shots at targets it knows include Hezbollah members to avoid killing them. One such attack in April involved a rocket landing near a Jeep crossing the Syrian border into Lebanon. When four Hezbollah members fled the vehicle, a second rocket destroyed it.
Israeli leaders have strongly supported the US policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran and the revocation of the nuclear deal by Trump, and have seen both as key opportunities to reduce Hezbollah, which they see as a strong and growing threat, fueled by chaos. Iraq and Syria. .
The alignment of Israeli interests with the vision of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf over Iran was supported by Trump officials as a main reason for the normalization agreements with the UAE and Bahrain and for warming ties with Riyadh.
Israeli leaders believe their Gulf counterparts are just as hostile to Hezbollah and Iran, and are unwilling to save Lebanon from catastrophic economic collapse as long as the group maintains control over the country’s policy.
“It doesn’t matter what the Saudis say,” said a second Hezbollah member. “The party can take care of its own. They need to understand that if the country falls, who will come out the strongest? It will not be the parties I support.
“But will they try something big in Beirut in the coming weeks? It is possible and true that there are security alerts in Dahiyeh and the south. This is about protecting our leaders. We have nothing specific. But there is something in the atmosphere. “
Hezbollah’s security zone in the heart of his city is surrounded by steel barriers that were lifted last week, allowing cars to pass. Security members stood on the side of the road, watching the flow of traffic under the surveillance of large rooms that maintain an interconnected view of Dahiyeh.
The banners of Iranian General Qassem Suleimani, who was assassinated in Baghdad on January 3 during an American drone strike, have been placed near intersections and hang from shop windows throughout Dahiyeh, and Nasrallah photographs are also prominent. Posters with smaller characters killed in Syria and Iraq and in previous clashes with Israel are also common.
“We are not afraid of death, as you know,” said the second member of Hezbollah. “But we have to protect our leaders and we know that we would be politically damaged if something happened to them. These are dangerous times. Trump is crazy, but he won’t get what he wants. He has no patience and no time. The Israelis believe they are coming after us. We come after them. “