Tornadoes and severe weather forecasts are returning south

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“A possible outbreak of severe storms, including strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds, will persist in part of the lower Mississippi Valley and the southeastern states from Thursday afternoon into night,” said the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) .

The latest forecast shows an “increased risk” of severe storms in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Alabama. This level 3 of the 5 risk category means “numerous severe storms are possible,” the SPC said, with large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes all possible.

“The ingredients will be combined on Thursday for another severe weather outbreak in the south,” said CNN meteorologist Chad Myers. “Highly humid air in the Gulf of Mexico combined with strong upward movement will cause multiple rounds of severe weather, including rotating storms that can trigger tornadoes.”

Last week, states, including Mississippi and Alabama, took the brunt of intense storms. National weather service offices confirmed 41 tornadoes Wednesdays and Thursdays cutting a combined path through the south nearly 210 miles.

Tornado chance appears on Wednesday evening

Another active weather pattern across the country is the introduction of storm systems that will cause more storms.

On Tuesday, a system located above the central plains will track toward the Midwest. That could lead to a few isolated severe storms in northern Missouri, as well as southern Louisiana and Mississippi, a region where tornado warnings were issued Tuesday morning; that have expired.

Half a foot of rain will fall over Louisiana for the next few days

While that system moves north and east on Wednesday, attention shifts west again to the next weather system.

On Wednesday that night, the SPC predicts the probability of severe weather from central Texas through Mississippi, with the greatest risk in southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana and western Mississippi. This region is faced with a level 2 of the 5 category “light risk” for severe weather.

Follow the latest weather news and forecast

By day Wednesday, there could be a few blotchy storms across the southern plains, with more widespread rain near the Texas Panhandle.

Wednesday night will then become more active as a series of storms develop, putting the risk mainly of high winds and hail, but also of tornadoes closer to the Gulf coast.

With these storms will also come an onslaught of heavy rains that could lead to flooding in parts of the south.

“With the region’s many storms, there should be widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall in the forecast area,” said the NWS office in Jackson, Mississippi.

Severe storm threat will be highest on Thursday

Wednesday’s storms will move east and center over the deep south on Thursday, as the risk area for major storms is likely to grow and widen. Strong storms will be possible from the Gulf Coast to northern Ohio.

Storm Forecast Center's outlook for bad weather for Thursday through Thursday nights
Some of these storms could contain “damaging winds,” and “tornadoes, perhaps strong, appear to be (a) legitimate possibility” for parts of the south, the National Weather Service office in Birmingham said.
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The specific timing of these storms is still too early to know, but computer modeling guidance suggests multiple storm rounds are possible during the day, Thursday and into that night.

The forecast shows that atmospheric conditions will be ripe and “support supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes and large hail,” the SPC said.

Friday should dry most of the south, with the exception of parts of Georgia and the Carolinas, where weaker showers and isolated thunderstorms can linger.

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