This is why it doesn’t snow much in the north, but it comes down in the south

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For example, Amarillo, Texas, has had more than six inches of snow – surpassing Green Bay, Wisconsin, which has had four inches, as well as Chicago and Grand Rapids, Michigan, at about 23 inches each.

When calculating snowfall, the 2020-21 winter season is defined as July 1, 2020 to June 30, 2021.

San Angelo, Texas, has had 5.8 inches, which is more than Cincinnati (3.1 inches), Indianapolis (5.4 inches), and Louisville, Kentucky (3.5 inches).

Shreveport, Louisiana, has had over three inches, which is more than Washington, DC, and St. Louis.

The science behind this shift in snowfall is simple. In addition to the milder temperatures in the north of the country, there hasn’t been a major boosted jet stream this year – both of which are keeping snow systems from moving through the region. So we had a more southerly assault course, which brought more snow in some southerly locations.

Missing Polar Vortex

Temperatures are one of the main contributing factors, because without cold air you cannot have snow.

Since January 1, much of the Midwest and Northeast – including Minneapolis, Chicago, Cleveland, and Buffalo – have had air temperatures at least 5 to 10 degrees above average. This may not sound like much, but it is enough to make the difference between rain and snow often.

“In addition, several snow events in Milwaukee this year have had lower snow-to-liquid ratios due to warmer temperatures, so the precipitation that fell has not produced as much snow as it would otherwise,” said Andy Boxell, the chief forecaster at the National. Weather Service in Milwaukee.

Statistically, January is the coldest month for Milwaukee, Chicago, Minneapolis, Cincinnati, and many Midwestern cities. What is noticeably missing is a cold snap from the polar vortex.

We’ve already had one such case of a polar vortex perturbation, with much of the polar air moving south to the lower latitudes, but affecting mostly Europe and Northern Asia this month. So far, such a burst of cold air from the polar vortex has not reached the US, and that has limited the cold air needed to keep northern precipitation as snow.

It doesn’t look like robust cold air is coming anytime soon.

NOAA’s one-month outlook shows warmer-than-average temperatures in much of the country.

Even without super cold temperatures, some northern cities have a chance of snow this weekend.

Snow is on the way

Winter weather warnings are in effect for more than half a dozen Midwestern states on Saturday in preparation for heavy snow. Several systems will move across the region in the coming days.

Still, the oncoming snow may not be enough to return them to normal.

“As far as the deficit in Milwaukee can be offset, a few inches are possible on Saturday night and Sunday morning,” said Boxell. “Monday’s system may also bring some snow, but for now it looks like the heavier amounts will be closer to the Chicago area. At this point we will probably need multiple systems to make up for the difference in a fairly short time.”

From Madison, Wisconsin, to Milwaukee, the forecast calls for 2 to 4 inches through Monday.

Chicago, Green Bay and Des Moines, Iowa, will all pick up 1 to 2 inches this weekend.

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