WASHINGTON (AP) – The US military warns that China is likely to speed up its timetable for taking control of Taiwan, the island democracy that has been the main source of tensions between Washington and Beijing. for decades and is widely regarded as the most likely trigger for a potentially catastrophic war between the US and China.
Concerns about Taiwan are now coming to China using new forces through years of military build-up. It has become more aggressive towards Taiwan and more assertive in sovereignty disputes in the South China SeaBeijing has also become more confrontational with Washington; Senior Chinese officials traded sharp and unusually public barbs with State Secretary Antony Blinken in talks in Alaska last month.
However, a military action against Taiwan would be a test of US support for the island that Beijing sees as a breakaway province. For the Biden administration, the choice could be to abandon a friendly, democratic entity or risk what could become an all-out war over a cause not on most Americans’ radar. The United States has long pledged to help Taiwan defend itself, but deliberately left it unclear how far it would go in response to a Chinese attack.
This accumulation of concerns is in line with the government’s view that China is a frontline challenge to the United States and that more should be done soon – militarily, diplomatically and by other means – to deter Beijing, as it is the United States. if the predominant power wants to replace it. in Asia. Some US military leaders see Taiwan as potentially the most direct flashpoint.
“We have indications that the risks are actually increasing,” Admiral Philip Davidson, the most senior US military commander in the Asia-Pacific region, told a senate panel last month, referring to a Chinese military strike on Taiwan.
“The threat manifests itself during this decade – in fact, in the next six years,” Davidson said.
Days later, Davidson’s expected successor, Admiral John Aquilino, declined to back up the six-year timeframe, but told the senators at his hearing, “My opinion is that this problem is much closer to us than most think.”
Biden government officials have spoken less emphatically, but emphasize its intention to deepen ties with Taiwan and elicit warnings from Beijing against interference from outsiders in what it sees as a domestic affair.
On Wednesday, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said the military threat against his country is on the rise, and while he said it was not yet “particularly alarming”, the Chinese military has been waging what he called “real fighting” in recent years. type ”exercises closer to the island.
“We are ready to defend ourselves, that’s without a doubt,” Wu told reporters. “We will fight a war if we have to fight a war, and if we have to defend ourselves to the very last day, then we will defend ourselves to the very last day.”
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin calls China the “pacing threat” to the United States, and military services are adapting accordingly. The Marine Corps, for example, is reforming itself with China and Russia in mind after two decades of ground-based struggle against extremists in the Middle East.
There is hardly an aspect of China’s military modernization that has not spurred the US military. Adm. Charles Richard, head of the US Strategic Command responsible for the US nuclear forces, wrote in a recent essay that China is on track to become a “strategic colleague” of the United States. He said China’s stockpile of nuclear weapons is expected to double “if not triple or quadruple” in the next 10 years, although that goes beyond the Pentagon’s official view that the stockpile will “at least double” during that period.
However, Taiwan is seen as the most pressing problem.
US officials have pointed to the actions of the People’s Liberation Army that appear intended to turn Taiwan upside down. For example, Chinese air strikes, including flying around the island, occur almost daily and serve to advertise the threat, wear down Taiwanese pilots and planes, and learn more about Taiwan’s capabilities.
Chinese officials scoffed at Davidson’s comments in Taiwan. A Defense Department spokesman Colonel Ren Guoqiang urged Washington to “give up zero peace thinking” and do more to build mutual trust and stability. He said that “attempts by outside forces to use Taiwan to control China, or the use by Taiwanese independence forces to use military means to achieve independence, are all dead ends.”
The implications of a Chinese military action against Taiwan and its 23 million inhabitants are so profound and potentially serious that Beijing and Washington have long managed a fragile middle ground: Taiwanese political autonomy that precludes control by Beijing but fails to achieve formal independence.
Predictions as to when China might decide to force Taiwan to reunite with the mainland have long differed, and there is no uniform picture in the United States. Larry Diamond, a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, said last week that he has doubts about whether Chinese leaders are willing to force the issue.
“I don’t think it will come soon,” he said.
The Trump administration has taken a series of steps to show stronger commitment to Taiwan, including sending a cabinet member to Taipei last year, making him the most senior U.S. official to visit the island since formal diplomatic relations were severed in 1979. out of deference to China. . The Biden government says it wants to cooperate with China where possible, but has objected to a wide range of Chinese actions.
Last week, the US ambassador to the Pacific island of Palau, John Hennessey-Niland, became the first serving US ambassador to visit Taiwan. since Washington cut ties with Taipei in favor of Beijing.
China is a frequent target of criticism in Congress. Concerns about countering growing military power are reflected in the passage of the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, funded for $ 2.2 billion by 2021. Davidson wants it to support the creation of a better air defense system around US territory, among other things. of Guam against Chinese missiles. and the maintenance of US military dominance in the region.
Rep. Adam Smith, a Washington Democrat and chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, is skeptical of the military’s fixation on dominance.
“Given the way the world works now, it’s just hopelessly unrealistic to have one country,” he said in a recent online forum sponsored by Meridian, an impartial diplomacy center. He said the US military, in conjunction with allies, can maintain enough strength to send the message, “China, don’t invade Taiwan, because the price you’re going to pay for it isn’t worth it.”
Associated Press writer Ken Moritsugu in Beijing, AP writer Huizhong Wu in Taipei, Taiwan, and AP diplomatic writer Matthew Lee in Washington contributed to this report.