This week, all 50 states officially opened eligibility for covid-19 vaccination to all adult residents. But while millions of Americans are still lining up to take their dose, experts warn that the country is fast approaching a surplus of vaccine, with too few suppliers to meet the supply we have. Once this happens, one question remains whether the US will eliminate its unwanted vaccines in countries that desperately need them or even give them the opportunity to make their own.
On Tuesday, an analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation ended that the US will reach a peak in enthusiasm for covid-19 vaccination in the next two to four weeks.
Currently, just over 50% of eligible adults have received at least one dose of vaccine. According to the latest KFF surveys in late March, about 61% of eligible adults have received or are certainly interested in getting vaccinated. But there remains a constant contingent of Americans – 10% to 15%, based on various polls – who openly say they will never receive a vaccine voluntarily. And even in the best case scenario – in which half of the people still unclear about the vaccine eventually change their minds – it would probably only take 28 days for everyone who wants a vaccine to receive it, KFF estimates.
Probably immediately after this week, the country will meet with President Biden earlier the stated objective administration of 200 million doses in the first 100 days after the presidency. And it is likely that our levels of vaccinated coverage will still be sufficient to abruptly reduce the spread of the pandemic and limit deaths and serious illnesses caused by covid-19, similar to what has happened in countries such as the United Kingdom and Israel. But we may not reach the immunity of the herd – levels of vaccine coverage and natural immunity that would fully protect people who are unable or unwilling to get vaccinated from localized outbreaks. Once enthusiasm dries up, the US vaccine supply is also in danger of running out, even though most of the world remains unvaccinated.
Earlier this month, Vanity Fair reported that discussions within the Biden administration had begun about how the United States would donate its next unwanted doses. But these talks were suspended as the country continued to experience relatively high levels of new cases and many experts feared a fourth pandemic would emerge. Since then, while several states like Michigan have seen alarming increases in new cases, the United States as a whole has remained on a precarious plateau. However, local issues have not only delayed these efforts. Many of the government’s existing contracts with vaccine manufacturers – negotiated by the Trump administration – should be redone first, as the current language seems to prevent them from giving overdoses to other countries.
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The United States and other rich countries, as members of the World Trade Organization, have done so before. Prevent attempts by poorer countries to secure their doses by temporarily giving up patents that would allow them to produce their own vaccines locally at a much lower cost. And despite recent complaints by some lawmakers to change the opinion of the administration and cast their support behind these derogations before the next WTO general meeting in May, it is unclear whether the US will do so.
All of these failures and intentional decisions could leave the United States largely, but not entirely, protected from the pandemic, while many of the world’s poorest nations would remain largely unprotected until 2024, according to some recent projections.