Federal officials warned this week that the United States could be on track for a further rise in Covid-19 cases, following Europe for weeks, in a pattern that has been seen during the pandemic.
European countries are now implementing new blockages amid a recurrence of infections, each taking an upward trend after ignoring known mitigation strategies, said Dr Rochelle Walensky, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, noting that it was a sign of warning for the USA.
France imposed a one-month blockade in Paris and other parts of the country on Friday. Italy earlier this week implemented new restrictions.
The United States in general followed the European Union by a few weeks in the dynamics of the outbreak, said Dr. Anthony Fauci this week. In Europe, cases declined, flattened and then countries gave up mitigation methods and had a comeback, he said in a conversation with The Wall Street Journal.
“I’m in the process of coming back, which is really something we absolutely want to avoid,” said Dr. Fauci. He added that, given the current level of community infection in the US, it is risky to withdraw all preventive measures.
A Wall Street Journal analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University shows that in 25 states, the average number of new cases in the last seven days is higher than the average number of cases in the last 14 days, indicating increasing cases. These states include Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Connecticut. The number of states that have evolved in this direction has fallen in the last few weeks, rising from just five states a month ago.
The United States encompasses many local epidemics, with different patterns in states governed by community decisions on interventions and vaccinations, said Yonatan Grad, assistant professor of immunology and infectious diseases at Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health.
“I don’t know that it makes sense to compare the whole of the United States to what’s going on elsewhere,” Dr. Grad said.
If the number of cases and hospitalizations increases in places where restrictions have been lifted and bars, restaurants and other activities have been reopened, this raises concerns about increased transmission, Dr. Grad said. In those places, he added, the numbers are expected to continue to rise.
In Michigan, the positivity of cases has increased for more than three weeks, with each region being either flat or with increasing positivity, according to data from the University of Michigan. According to the CDC, the highly transmissible coronavirus variant first identified in the UK, known as B.1.1.7, is predominant in the state, with 616 cases.
At first, the post-holiday decline in new cases of Covid-19 was steady in Michigan, and then it began to stop and grow, said Emily Toth Martin, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Michigan School of Public Health. .
The number of cases in younger age groups, under the age of 50, is increasing, Dr. Martin said, and there are reports of groups of cases happening around school-related activities outside the classroom.
NIAID Director Anthony Fauci says it is risky to back down on public health measures, as cases could pay off and then return, as they have done in Europe.
Dr. Martin said he worked with a team that does genomic sequencing of Covid-19 cases. In Michigan, she said, it is testing variants in known clusters instead of random sampling in the community.
“If you compare us to a randomly sampled state throughout the community, we seem to have a problem,” said Dr. Martin, “when we really look for it in a more directed way.”
The British variant is not the predominant strain that travels through the community, said Dr. Martin. Instead, the increase in the number of cases is determined by changes in behavior, more mobility and more openness.
This will lead to fluctuations in the number of cases, especially since the number of people vaccinated in the community is not so high, she said. About 22% of residents received at least one stroke, according to an analysis by the CDC’s Journal of Data.
“We get a little over the top in terms of skis, in terms of the fact that we have a lot of enthusiasm for re-employment and we start to open things back and we start having meetings again, when really none of the people involved in those activities are actually protected or immune, “said Dr. Martin.
Overall, the Covid-19 positivity rate continues to decline in the US, with a seven-day average of 4.1%. According to the CDC, cases of Covid-19 per capita are highest in the 18-24 age group, followed by 25-34.
The possible plateau comes as the US vaccination campaign, seen as the key to ending the pandemic, increases speed. Last week, the country went through the milestone of 100 million doses of vaccine. And on Friday, the United States met President Biden’s goal of delivering 100 million doses of vaccine in the first 100 days of his term, weeks ahead of schedule. The rate of vaccination is now averaging 2.5 million doses per day; Nearly 12 percent of the U.S. population is vaccinated, according to Johns Hopkins.
By comparison, 3.68% of Italians, 3.64% of Germans, 3.37% of French and 2.65% of UK residents are vaccinated, according to Johns Hopkins. The EU’s vaccination effort has been hampered by a lack of doses, which makes it likely that only a small part of the general public will be shot by the end of the summer, while the spread of highly contagious coronavirus variants is accelerating across the region.
Most Americans who have been completely vaccinated are over 50 years old, according to CDC data.
But if the US chooses to prioritize a limited number of vaccines for older or vulnerable adults – who are at higher risk for serious complications and death from Covid-19 – it means that those who are likely to be more likely to travel to the community to be vaccinated later, according to both Dr. Martin and Dr. Grad.
“It makes sense, if your goal is to reduce deaths, to focus on vaccinating those most at risk of dying if they are infected,” said Dr. Grad, adding, “There are some contexts in which you would like to vaccinate on those who are at the highest level the risk of transmission to reduce cases, to reduce deaths. ”
Write to Melanie Grayce West at [email protected]
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