The US could record up to 150,000 more deaths through COVID-19 by February, as the new strain takes place, warns expert

The United States set a new record for hospitalizations with COVID-19 coronavirus disease on Wednesday, as experts said the new, much more infectious variant makes it even more important to set up the nation’s disappointing vaccine program.

The United States added at least 238,999 new cases on Tuesday and at least 3,664 people died, according to a New York Times tracker. The US recorded an average of 219,684 new cases every day in the last week, confirming the worst case predictions of experts who said that the holiday season will lead to new increases.

In US hospitals, 131,195 patients with COVID-19 were registered on Tuesday, according to the COVID follow-up project, which surpassed the record of 128,210 set a day earlier. The United States continues to lead the world by 21 million cases, according to data from Johns Hopkins University, and by 359,077 deaths, or about a fifth of the global total.

The new variant of the virus, which first appeared in the UK, where it spread, was found in the US and is probably spreading in communities.


“We should expect, without further action, that as the new strain catches on, we will see another 10 million infections in the US between now and the end of February, and in that time, we could easily see another 100,000 by 150,000 deaths. ‘


– Dr. Ashish K. Jha, Dean and Professor of Health Services, Policy and Practice, Brown University School of Public Health

“It is now almost certainly too widespread to be included in any specific state or region of our country,” said Dr. Ashish K. Jha, dean and professor of health services, policy and practice at Brown University School. from Public Health, in a statement. This new variant is significantly more infectious, threatening a rapid increase in new case rates and a much more deadly and destructive pandemic. This requires an urgent rethinking of our current political responses. “

The variant was named B.1.1.7 and is estimated to be 40% to 70% more infectious than the original virus, Jha said, although so far it does not appear to make people sick. Officials are expected to respond to vaccines that have so far been granted emergency use authorization for pandemic use. A strain that Jha called the “close cousin” of the new variant has been found in South Africa and the United Kingdom, but has not yet been detected in the United States.

A significant increase in infection rates will result in a much more deadly pandemic, he said.

“An epidemiologist (Adam Kucharski, associate professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine), comparing a 50% increase in disease severity to a 50% increase in infectivity, hypothetically in a city with 10,000 infections would increases infectivity have led to a fivefold increase in deaths per month – because a lower mortality rate in a very large number of cases results in much more deaths than a higher mortality rate, but a lower number of deaths cases, ”said Jha.

It is estimated that the new variant will now account for about 1% of all infections, but will probably account for the vast majority by March.

“We should expect, without further action, that as the new strain catches on, we will see another 10 million infections in the US between now and the end of February, and in that time, we could easily see another 100,000 by 150,000 deaths, “he said.

This means that it is more important than ever for Americans to adhere to the public safety measures that experts have recommended throughout the pandemic, namely frequent hand washing, social distancing and wearing a face mask in all public spaces. People should avoid gatherings that bring more households together, and testing needs to be improved, he said.

“And finally, we need to redouble our efforts to vaccinate as many people as possible,” Jha said.

Read now:There is only a small chance that the vaccine will stop the COVID pandemic this year

The Center for Disease Control and Prevention followed the vaccine showing that only 4.8 million people were dosed as of 9:00 ET on January 5 and only 17 million doses were distributed. This is well below the most recent revised 20 million deliveries promised by President Donald Trump’s administration and exceeds the initial promise of 100 million.

Trump left it to the states to administer the vaccination program – tweeting that it was “Until the state to administer” and then the appeal of some states “very slow” – which means that stressed state health departments, which have already dealt with testing, follow-up contacts, public information campaigns and deciding when or whether schools or businesses should be opened or closed, are now tasked with managing the largest public health effort in decades.

See: January will be the worst month for the US pandemic so far, with holiday travel cases on the rise

In another train of thoughts:

• The European Union has granted an emergency use authorization for the COVID-19 vaccine developed by Moderna Inc. mRNA,
+ 6.41%,
Jack Denton of MarketWatch reported. The European Commission is expected to grant the vaccine authorization quickly, allowing it to be distributed throughout Europe, where COVID-19 infections remain very high and millions of people continue to live under strict blockade measures. The potential elimination of the modern vaccine comes as European governments face challenges in implementing the vaccine on a large scale. In France, President Emmanuel Macron faces national criticism over the inoculation campaign, which remains with his European counterparts.

• The head of the World Health Organization said he was “disappointed” that Chinese officials had not completed permits to allow a team of experts in China to examine the origins of COVID-19, the Associated Press reported. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, in a rare critique of Beijing, said members of the international scientific team had left their home countries in the past 24 hours as part of an agreement between the WHO and the Chinese government. “Today we learned that Chinese officials have not yet completed the necessary permits for the team to arrive in China,” Tedros told a news conference in Geneva. “I am very disappointed with this news, given that two members have already started their travels, and others have not been able to travel at the last minute, but have been in contact with senior Chinese officials,” he said.

• The Netherlands is finally preparing to start its COVID-19 vaccination program, becoming the last EU country to do so, the BBC reported. The Dutch government has criticized the delay, and former public health director Roel Coutinho has warned that the country’s “shameful” vaccination strategy “will cost lives”. During an emergency debate in parliament, opposition politicians called the approach “chaotic and confusing.” The Netherlands has 852,921 confirmed cases of COVID-19, according to Johns Hopkins, and at least 12,095 people have died.

• The non-governmental organization within the Geneva Emblem Press Campaign said on Wednesday that more than 600 journalists had died of COVID-19 since the beginning of the pandemic, with Latin America leading more than half of the known victims, AFP reported. At least 145 deaths were recorded in Asia, with 94 in Europe, 23 in North America and 28 in Africa. The Press Freedom Group called on journalists to have priority access to vaccines on demand.

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• CVS Health Corp. CVS,
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plans to administer the first dose of COVID-19 vaccines in approximately 8,000 qualified health care facilities in 49 states by Jan. 25, Jaimy Lee told MarketWatch. The program allows both residents and facility employees to obtain one of the two COVID-19 vaccines authorized right now; both groups are considered by the US government to be at high risk of contracting coronavirus. CVS said it also intends to publish its national and state vaccination figures every day at 4 p.m. He also said that while the absorption among residents remains “encouragingly high”, the actual number of residents is about 20% to 30% lower than the projections of the facility which were based on the number of beds. “The initial assimilation among staff is low, part of which is probably due to facilities that want to schedule vaccinations between visits,” said the pharmacy chain.

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The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide rose to over 86.7 million on Wednesday, according to Johns Hopkins, and the death toll rose to 1.9 million. At least 48 million people have recovered from COVID-19.

Brazil has the second highest number of deaths after the US, with 197,732, and is the third in cases, with 7.8 million.

India is second in the world in cases, with 10.4 million, and third in deaths, with 150,114.

Mexico has the fourth highest number of deaths at 128,822 and the 13th highest number of cases, with 1.5 million.

The United Kingdom has 2.8 million cases and 77,370 deaths, the largest in Europe and the fifth largest in the world.

China, where the virus was first discovered late last year, recorded 96,335 confirmed cases and 4,788 deaths, according to its official figures.

See also: Scotland will impose a new blockade starting at midnight

What does the economy say?

Private sector employers lost 123,000 jobs in December, the first decline since April, according to the national ADP employment report, Greg Robb of MarketWatch reported.

MarketWatch economists expected a gain of 60,000 private sector jobs in December.

What happened: job losses were mainly concentrated in retail, leisure and hospitality.

Private sector service providers lost 105,000 jobs in December. Meanwhile, producers of goods have lost 18,000 jobs. Production lost 21,000 jobs.

By company size, small businesses lost 37,000 jobs in the private sector in December and large businesses lost 147,000. Medium-sized enterprises, defined as companies with 50-499 employees, added 37,000 jobs.

See: “We forget about them as essential workers.” COVID-19 made agricultural workers even more vulnerable – and created impetus to protect them

Economists are using ADP data as a guide for the Department of Labor’s employment report, which will be released on Friday, covering government jobs in addition to the private sector.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect the government report to show a slowdown in employment growth in December, with employment rising by just 50,000 last month.

Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,
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