Economists predict that the US unemployment rate remained at 6.7% in the first month of 2021, which would be the third consecutive month without changes. Eleven months after the pandemic, 10 months after the job crisis and nine months after the apparent recovery, this is a very bad sign.
The average job expectancy added in January is 50,000. This would be a welcome change from the 140,000 jobs lost in December, which was the first monthly job loss since April. If the January forecast is valid, America will continue to decline by nearly 10 million jobs since February last year.
ADP’s employment report on Wednesday showed that private wages rose 174,000 in January, much higher than economists expected. And while the ADP report and the government report are not correlated, such a big leap is auspicious for official job figures.
Along with recent positive surveys in the manufacturing and services sectors, “there may be … wait for it ….. increased risk in this Friday’s payroll,” Jennifer Lee, a senior BMO economist, wrote Wednesday.
Here’s hoping.
On Thursday, the Department of Labor reported that weekly unemployment claims fell more than expected in the last week of January, leading to some optimism about a potential positive surprise in Friday’s job report.
All eyes on the launch of the vaccine
America’s job market has been booming since the economy shut down last spring, adding millions of jobs over the summer. Even so, the nation remains in a labor crisis.
More than 18 million people received some form of government benefits in the week ending Jan. 9, according to the Department of Labor.
Meanwhile, the hospitality and leisure industry – which includes restaurants and all kinds of personal entertainment – continues to bear the brunt of the crisis.
“In fact, the food and beverage sector has been the biggest single source of the gap between the December employment level and the pre-pandemic level,” said economic research director Nick Bunker, in comments through e -mail. In addition, all jobs lost in December were held by women.
Sectors cannot fully return to normal until the virus is out of control or the pandemic is over. Economists and politicians are betting that the launch of the vaccine will be the solution for the economy.
But the launch is still in its infancy: nearly 33 million doses of the vaccine have been administered in the United States so far, but only 6 million people have received the second such important dose, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Diseases.
The Congressional Budget Office said Monday in a report that the number of US employees will not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024.
President Joe Biden’s plans – including the goal of delivering 100 million doses of coronavirus vaccine in his first 100 days, as well as his proposed $ 1.9 trillion stimulus package, which would include more aid for the unemployed – may helps in stormy weather.
But as for how long it will take the nation to fully recover from this job crisis – it remains the unknown.
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