The UK warns that more deadly tension is making it harder to block the rise

Photographer: Leon Neal / Getty Images

The new strain of coronavirus in the UK could be more deadly than originally thought, said Prime Minister Boris Johnson, while again warning that the country faces a long wait before it can get out of the blockade.

Speaking at a news conference in London on Friday, the prime minister said new evidence led the government to reconsider its initial view that the option was more contagious, but not more dangerous. It can be 30% more deadly than the original strain – or more, a government analysis found.

“In addition to the faster spread, it now also appears that there is some evidence that the new variant – the variant that was first identified in London and the South East – could be associated with a higher degree of mortality,” he said. said Johnson at 10. Downing Street, flanked by his top medical advisors.

The government said that, on average, for 1,000 men aged 60, 13-14 would die if they contracted the new variant, compared to 10 for the original strain.

The prime minister’s warning comes as Britain faces the largest death toll in Europe and is fighting to recover from the economic wreckage of the deepest recession in 300 years.

There was a a glimmer of light for Britain in government data on Friday suggesting that the second wave of the pandemic has reached its peak.

But Johnson and his scientific advisers have made it clear that hospitalization, death and infection rates remain far too high and will not allow the restrictions that have shut down businesses to be lifted soon.

More vigilance

Added to this was the warning about the increased potency of the new variant known as B.1.1.7, which was first identified in the UK last year and has since spread around the world.

Read more: Why new virus strains are so worrying: QuickTake

Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, said the new strain is not only easier to transmit, but is also linked to higher mortality rates than previous variants in circulation in the UK.

“To a large extent, the impact of this new variant means that the NHS is under such intense pressure,” Johnson said. “It’s more important than ever to stay vigilant and follow the rules.” There are 38,562 patients with Covid in hospitals, which is 78 percent higher than in the first peak in April last year, he said.

While an initial analysis by public health experts in England found that the variant was not linked to more hospitalizations or deaths, independent analyzes by external experts yielded consistent and worrying results, according to a government report.

London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Imperial College London found that mortality was 29% to 35% higher in those infected with the variant of worry or VOC, compared to those who carried the original strain of the virus. The University of Exeter concluded that the risk was 91% higher, while a repeated analysis by Public Health England found a 65% higher mortality.

“There is a realistic likelihood that VOC infection B.1.1.7 will be associated with an increased risk of death compared to non-VOC virus infection,” the report of the Advisory Group on New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats in the United Kingdom concluded. . “It should be noted that the absolute risk of death per infection remains low. ”

More data will accumulate in the coming weeks – since late-death infections – could make the analysis more robust, the group said.

Officials at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have contacted to find out more about the situation, but have not yet seen the data and have not spoken to UK counterparts, an agency spokesman said on Friday.

In other developments on Friday:

• Johnson undertook to do “Anything is needed” to support jobs if restrictions continue into the summer
• He warned that tougher border measures may be needed to keep mutant strains out of the UK.
• Officials proposed paying people to stay home in an effort to encourage greater compliance with self-isolation orders
• Suggested dates the blockade works and the pandemic may not spread exponentially in the UK
• Another 1,401 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours, bringing the UK total to 95,981

The prime minister is under pressure from within his own Conservative Party to expose his own Roadmap to lift the restrictions that have affected the economy in the last year.

He set the government’s hopes for a strategy to immunize 15 million of the most vulnerable people by February 15 – and said again on Friday that the country was on track to meet that goal.

There is no evidence that vaccines in the UK are less effective against the more lethal variant of the virus, Johnson said. But infection rates remain high, on average, one in 35 people in London has the disease, and the figure is one in 55 nationally.

“We can’t start considering unblocking until we’re sure the vaccination program is working,” Johnson said. “We need to be in a position where the rates are not so high that an unlock will lead to another big rebound.”

– With the assistance of David Goodman, Michelle Fay Cortez and John Tozzi

(Updates with CDC US comments in paragraph 15)