US President Joe Biden
Photographer: Oliver Contreras / Sipa / Bloomberg
Photographer: Oliver Contreras / Sipa / Bloomberg
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It is unlikely that the UK and the US will be ready to conclude a trade deal before 2023, in a blow to Britain’s hopes of winning Brexit quickly, according to people familiar with the matter.
President Joe Biden’s administration is focusing on other priorities, such as China and investment in domestic programs to boost the US economy, and its legal power to quickly pursue a trade deal through Congress is set to expire on July 1.
According to someone familiar with the UK-US talks, this power is unlikely to be renewed before at least 2023 – as the 2022 midterm elections will make trade legislation too politically sensitive to pass.
In London, the government spoke optimistically in public about the prospects of a US agreement, but officials are now lowering the chances of imminent progress.
The United Kingdom is discussing the US trade deal, despite omitting calls from the White House
“The UK has always been clear that ensuring a mutually beneficial and comprehensive agreement is more important than reaching an agreement by any set date,” said a spokesman for the UK government’s Department of International Trade. The US commercial representative’s office declined to comment.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke with Biden on Friday, but the British official reading of the call made no mention of trade negotiations.
The slowdown will be disappointing for Johnson and his allies, who have been keen to promote a quick deal, as an early sign of Britain’s success as a global trading country, recently freed from the constraints of joining the European Union.
Politically, the long wait for a deal risks adding to the impression that Biden is keeping his distance from Britain’s Johnson, unlike Donald Trump, who has publicly held quick trade talks and been an enthusiastic supporter of Brexit. .
Irish history
Biden has criticized the way the UK is managing its withdrawal from the EU and wants to talk about its Irish ancestry. This returned to the spotlight on Thursday, when the president referred to his great-grandfather who fled Ireland in a so-called coffin ship “because of what the British had done”.
While UK International Trade Secretary Liz Truss said most of a trade text with the US had agreed, the most controversial elements of an agreement – such as access to US agricultural products such as chicken washed with chlorine or hormone-treated beef – are still negotiable.
Truss and new U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai had their first talks this week, a high-level call that focused on issues such as the coronavirus pandemic, the reform of the World Trade Organization and the settlement of a long-running dispute over illegal aid. Airbus SE and Boeing Co.
A spokesman for the UK Department for International Trade said Truss and Tai would have “additional talks on trade agreement negotiations” after Tai considered the progress of talks so far.
In written responses to senators during the February confirmation process, Tai said the administration plans to review the status of talks under Trump and chart a path that is consistent with Biden’s policy of prioritizing the interests of American workers without give a timeline for this process.
Two years away
“I have trouble seeing how the Biden administration does this over the next two years,” said Simon Lester, associate director of the Center for Business Policy Studies at the Cato Institute in Washington. “I don’t know why they would want to bring to light all the other things on their agenda.”
David Henig, director of the UK trade policy project at the European Center for International Political Economy, agreed that the US now has other priorities. “It doesn’t make sense that anything will happen immediately,” he said. “This is the year you really want to repair Airbus-Boeing, especially if you’re going after China.”
Permanent resolution of the current four-month tariff the suspension by the US in the Airbus-Boeing dispute, which covers trade worth about 550 million pounds ($ 755 million) with the United Kingdom and affects products such as whiskey and coagulated cream, is a priority for Tai and Truss, according to of two people familiar with discussions. Progress on this issue is likely to take place sooner than any discovery of a wider free trade agreement between the UK and the US, people said.
When the impetus returns to trade talks, Britain hopes the new US administration will not deselect the chapters that have already been agreed in the five rounds of negotiations, which began in May 2020.
The British government also believes it will be able to go further in priority areas, such as climate change, data and access to digital services, than was possible under the Trump administration, said one of the people.