The Trump administration is declassifying as-yet-unconfirmed intelligence, recently informed to President Trump, indicating that China has offered to pay non-state actors in Afghanistan to attack US soldiers, two senior officials tell Axios.
The big picture: The disclosure of this unconfirmed intelligence comes 21 days before the end of Trump’s presidency, after he vowed to increase pressure on China, and months after news reports indicated that the Russians had secretly offered bounties to Taliban militants to help U.S. kill troops in Afghanistan.
- The Chinese Embassy in DC did not respond to a request for comment. Trump would not have discussed the matter with President Xi Jinping.
- It was not immediately clear whether members of Congress or President-elect Joe Biden had been notified, although Biden now has access to the President’s Daily Brief (PDB).
Behind the scenes: The intelligence was included in the president’s December 17 briefing, and Trump was verbally briefed on the matter by national security adviser Robert O’Brien, officials said.
- Administrative officials from multiple agencies are currently working on confirming the first intelligence reports.
- Axios was unable to visually inspect the reports containing detailed information. A summary was described by telephone by the officials.
Why it matters: If this intelligence were to be confirmed, it would spell a dramatic strategic shift for China and greatly escalate tensions between China and the U.S. If the intelligence proves to be inaccurate, it raises questions about the motivations behind the sources and the decision. to release it.
- China has long played a silent diplomatic role in Afghanistan, inviting Afghan Taliban officials to Beijing to discuss plans for a peace deal and encouraging an Afghanistan-led solution, although Chinese weapons and funding are also sometimes in the conflict there ended up.
- It seems “preposterous” that China would take such a provocative action in Afghanistan, Andrew Small, a senior fellow at Germany’s Marshall Fund who specializes in China-Afghanistan affairs, told Axios.
- The pursuit of peace in Afghanistan is “one of the extremely rare areas where the US and China are still willing to cooperate in an important area,” Small said. “They know the relapse is happening. We are not in the context where anything else needs to be done with the US forces in Afghanistan. There is no reason to put extra pressure on the US forces.”
Flashback: In June, Kayleigh McEnany, White House press secretary, lashed out at the New York Times for publishing “unverified” allegations about Russia’s bounty intelligence.
- She suggested that “rogue intelligence officers” were undermining Trump and US security. She also maintained that Trump had not been notified because the intelligence had not been fully verified.
Details: A senior official involved in the latest talks in China who described the unconfirmed intelligence to Axios said, “Like all initial reports, we respond cautiously to the initial reports” but “all intelligence reports regarding the security of our armed forces we take it very seriously. “
- On Dec. 22, officials held a meeting of the Policy Coordination Committee (PCC) to discuss the issue, said a second senior official with direct knowledge of the internal discussions.
- The official said the PCC was focused on two objectives: consultations with the IC on attempts to verify initial reports, and consultations in the intelligence and defense communities on the force protection position for the remaining forces in Afghanistan.
Officials would not describe or say the source or sources of the intelligence when or during what period of time the activity took place.
- One said, “The US has evidence that the PRC [People’s Republic of China] attempted to fund attacks on US military personnel by Afghan non-state actors by offering financial incentives or “bounties” and said the National Security Council “is coordinating an investigation of the entire government. “
- He declined to say whether he was referring to the Taliban or go beyond describing “non-state actors.”
- The timing of the alleged premium offer is unclear. The source would only say this happened some time after the end of February, when the US struck a deal with the Taliban. He also noted that no US combat deaths have occurred in Afghanistan since then.
- He said the government had previously received information about “weapons from the PRC flowing illegally into Afghanistan”.
Between the lines: The British and American governments have previously complained about the use of Chinese weapons by the Taliban.
- Interest in Afghanistan stems in part from Beijing’s desire to prevent Chinese Muslim separatist groups from using the country as a base.
- According to a Dec. 25 report from the Hindustan Times, Afghan security officials recently discovered an alleged Chinese spy group operating in the country that appears to be targeting Uyghurs there.
Do not forget: Trump was severely criticized earlier this year for admitting that he had not spoken to Vladimir Putin about the unconfirmed intelligence reports that Russia offered bribes to the Taliban to kill US soldiers.
- The commander of US forces in Afghanistan, General Frank McKenzie, said in September that “it simply has not been proven to any degree of certainty that Russia has offered these bounties.” (This information was included in the President’s Daily Brief earlier this year, the New York Times first reported.)
- “We continue to look for that evidence,” McKenzie said of the reports on Russia. ‘I just haven’t seen it yet. But … it is not a closed issue. ‘