Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions have agreed to part ways this offseason, which could (should?) Matter a lot to the 49ers as they look for potential updates on Jimmy Garoppolo. A union between Stafford and San Francisco could benefit both sides.
Consider the location of Stafford’s career. He is 32 years old, a 12-year veteran, has a record below -500 as a starter and is 0-3 in the postseason. All this comes despite the fact that it is already in 16th place in all courts. Stafford is a better player than his record and would indicate a lack of success in the postseason. As he looks to turn the page on his career, while his first years remain, a team like the 49ers could help him throw a few monkeys that have taken up residence.
A healthy version of the San Francisco 49ers would be the best roster Stafford has ever played, and head coach Kyle Shanahan would be the best offensive coach he has ever had.
The impact that Shanahan had on other defenders indicates a lot of potential for Stafford in the 49ers’ offense.
It’s not a comparison between apples and apples, because offensive weapons are different, but it’s worth noting what Matt Ryan’s numbers looked like before Shanahan’s arrival in Atlanta and how they compare to Stafford’s in the 12 seasons. Since Stafford played 55 games more than Ryan did before Shanahan, we will stay mostly in the middle.
Ryan, in his first seven seasons, completed 64% of throws for 256.1 yards per game, 7.2 yards per attempt, a touchdown rate of 4.5% and an interception rate of 2.4%. It maintained a rating of 91.1 in that range.
Stafford’s first 12 years are remarkably similar. He completes 62.6 percent of his passes for 273.4 yards per game and 7.2 yards per try. Its touchdown rate is 4.5% and the interception rate is 2.3%. The evaluation of the Stafford pass is 89.9 after 12 years.
Both players also fought in post-season situations. Stafford is 0-3 in its first three attempts. Ryan was just 1-4 before Shanahan arrived and helped the Falcons reach the Super Bowl.
Ryan’s first season under Shanahan in 2015 was relatively similar to his first seven years, but the second season in that offense was his MVP year, where he exploded 4,994 yards, a 7.1 TD rate, a 1.3 INT and 9.3 yards per try. It is not out of the possibility that an equally talented player will be Stafford to see a similar increase in production, especially since he already has a season of 5,000 yards under the belt and a few seasons of over 30 TDs.
A reason for the break could come when we look at Stafford’s .448 percent winning career. Usually, big defenders don’t lose more than half of their games, but it’s worth noting how abysmal the lions were at the time.
Since drafting Stafford in 2009, the Lions have had a defensive point in the top half of the league, scoring three times – the same number of times they have had a point of defense in the top half in the yard.
Their offensive lists were not stellar either. While Stafford benefited from some good pass catching weapons, there was no running game to talk about in Detroit. Since 2009, they have had a player rushing 1,000 meters in a season. That was in 2013, when 28-year-old Reggie Bush posted 1,006 yards.
49ers have a hump to get over their own. They haven’t won a Super Bowl since the 1994 season, and their last trip to the Super Bowl LIV was partly short due to the defensive game. Garoppolo wasn’t the reason they lost, but it’s hard to imagine what the 49ers offense would look like with a defender who stretches the field more effectively. Stafford would do that, while offering a small financial relief in a year when the salary cap could start to be an issue for a talented San Francisco club that has a few players to pay.
The 49ers would take a quarterback listed on paper to be an upgrade over Garoppolo. Not to mention Stafford’s durability has been better during his 12 seasons. The only time he missed out on his first two seasons came when he fractured his back bones and missed eight games in 2019.
Maybe Shanahan doesn’t see Stafford as an upgrade over Garoppolo. If the 49ers believe that a better and healthier version of Garoppolo will appear or if the capital fund needed to acquire Stafford becomes too large, then maybe they will stick with it. However, given what we saw from Matt Ryan in Shanahan’s offense, it’s hard to imagine that they won’t at least give the shots to see if they can get a high Stafford to help them get back into the NFL top Mountain.